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Posts Tagged ‘June 2010 Election’

Last week I wrote a column about SD Rostra’s success in correctly predicting Upset victories in June by Juan Vargas and Lorie Zapf.

Not very controversial, right?

But a writer for a SD liberal publication attacked, saying (A) Zapf’s victory was no surprise, and (B) no one said she would miss the runoff and (C) we Rostrafarians were “Morons”.

As Jack Benny used to say, “Well !”

But was the Last Angry Man right in his basic complaint? We did some fact-checking to see and found these quotes of note:

Lessons from 2010 Primary …..Whose Polls can you Trust?

Sunday, July 25, 2010
posted by Jim Sills

In the last month before the June primary, Barry Jantz reported a poll showing a close race between Howard Wayne and Lorie Zapf in SD city council district 6.

Soon after, I reported on polling which showed Juan Vargas leading Mary Salas outside SD County and would likely win the 40th senate Democratic primary.

Barry Jantz took flack from some in the local MSM, who demanded documentation and sourcing on these polls. Barry replied that many posters here are political professionals and, as such, “hear” breaking info which doesn’t reach traditional media, and which are told us on the basis of no attribution.

FlashReport: Salas Concedes to Vargas

Wednesday, July 21, 2010
posted by Thor's Assistant

From: @FlashReport
Sent: Jul 21, 2010 10:11p
**Breaking News** Moments ago Salas called Vargas and conceded the 40th SD Dem Primary. The recount is over!
sent via UberTwitter
On Twitter:
http://twitter.com/FlashReport/status/19230531413

Read additional comments from Jim Sills’ prior post this evening:
http://sdrostra.com/?p=6789&cpage=1#comment-58669

UPDATE, 9:15 pm, July 21st
Today’s San Diego county recount results are in for SD 40. They show a net 1 vote loss for Salas in this county. Earlier this evening, Riverside released their Day 3 Recount report, and Salas lost a net 3 votes there.

Juan Vargas’ totals remained unchanged today in each county. Both San Diego and Riverside re-checked 12 precincts each today.

For the moment, that moves the overall Juan Vargas lead to + 26 votes district-wide in the 40th state senate Demo primary.

Stay tuned to SD Rostra for all the live, local and late-breaking coverage.

Update [9:50 pm, July 20, 2010]
San Diego county just chimed-in with their numbers on Day 2 of
the Juan Vargas-Mary Salas recount. They examined 16 more
precincts today.

Net Result… Juan Vargas is still + 22 votes ahead of Mary Salas
district-wide in SD 40.

Salas added 3 new votes in San Diego, but had 1 disqualified.
Vargas added one new vote from Today, and one new vote
from Yesterday’s count (in Chula Vista’s precinct 52640).

Overheard Downtown This Afternoon

Monday, July 19, 2010
posted by Criticus

At lunch this afternoon my guest and I happened to sit next to what I presume to be a couple of Democrat legislative staff. The conversation: how hard State Senate President Darrell Steinberg had fought to make sure Vargas lost to Salas in the 40th State Senate District, and what the ramifications would be when Vargas is sworn in. IF Vargas is sworn in. Their take (and I can’t honestly say I know that much about state politics in Sacramento) was that Vargas is a moderate, Steinberg is a liberal, and that Vargas and the moderates now had the votes to either replace Steinberg or make his life miserable.

Update [2:00 a.m.], Tuesday, July 20
Late Monday night, Riverside County posted recount results for 5 precincts within that county. The net result is a gain of 1 vote for Mary Salas in our neighbor county.

* * *

Day 1 of the 40th state senate recount is over in San Diego county. Juan Vargas began the day leading by 22 votes overall in the 3-county district.

And the 1st Day recount figures from San Diego show that 13 precincts from Chula Vista and Coronado were checked for accuracy with a Manual (aka “Hand”) count vs. the original machine count.

Liti   Gators

Everything the public knows about Recounts is Wrong.

There is almost no chance of a missed precinct or a math error erasing any part of Juan Vargas’ 22-vote lead over Mary Salas in Senate district 40. The recount will go through the motions, but no one expects to find that kind of flub.

No, sportsfans, The Real Game involves votes that were Not Counted at all ! They are mail-in and Provisional ballots which were disqualified by Registrar of Voters’ staff owing to apparent errors by those would-be voters.

closer    look

2ND UPDATE (5:50 a.m., Tuesday) The Imperial Valley Press reports today
the Mary Salas campaign did not seek a recount in Imperial County.
http://www.ivpressonline.com/articles/2010/07/13/local_news/news05.txt
Vote recounts will proceed, however, in San Diego and Riverside counties.

UPDATE [6:10 pm, Monday]… The Sacramento Bee’s “Capitol Alert” has confirmed the Rostra story, saying Salas filed recount papers today in SD and also in Riverside county…… The Capitol Alert article came at 5:39 pm, a half hour after the Rostra post.

Reliable sources tell SD Rostra the Mary Salas campaign has taken
the necessary steps to trigger a recount of Senate Dist. 40 ballots
within San Diego county. If initiated, the count will take place in a few days.

July 10         Vargas  Verge  of  Victory

UPDATE…. 7 am, Saturday, July 10, 2010 Riverside County just put up
another new vote count at 6 a.m. today. They tabulated just 5 votes in
SD 40… and all 5 of them went to Juan Vargas.

That puts Juan Vargas at +22 overall in the sprawling 3-county district….
Juan Vargas now… 24,282…. while Mary Salas …24,260
This story will continue to develop, and SD Rostra will follow it for you.

* * *

Late tonight (Friday) the Riverside County Registrar of Voters posted
NEW NUMBERS in the ultra-close Juan Vargas v. Mary Salas state
senate primary, which spans part or all of San Diego, Imperial and
Riverside counties.

July 9          Riverside  Late  Show   SD 40

Riverside county judge Mac Fisher today ordered the Riverside Registrar of Voters to count 12,500 mail ballots which were picked up a day after the June 8th primary election.

Judge Fisher ruled the mix-up between the Postal Service
and the Registrar should not bar those voters from being heard. (Hat tip to reporter Duane Gang of the Press-Enterprise who filed a story from the court room).

SD Rostra estimates roughly 450 of those 12,500 ballots will be from registered Democrats choosing between Juan Vargas and Mary Salas in the slice of Senate District 40 which over-laps Riverside.

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July 6           Vargas  holds   12-vote  lead

How close is the 40th senate primary? It’s so close that discovery of one new vote is a big deal!

Mary Salas added 1 vote in San Diego last Friday…but then Juan Vargas gained 1 new ballot in Riverside county over the weekend.

Net result? Juan Vargas maintains a 12-vote lead in your updated district-wide totals… Vargas…24,139….Salas….24,127.

Still to come: a Friday court hearing in Riverside which likely will order the Registrar there to count late mail ballots wrongly delivered a day after the election. I estimate about 450 more
Vargas/Salas votes will be counted as a result.

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June  30         vargas   doubles His Lead

Juan Vargas doubled his Lead over Mary Salas moments ago
in the 40th state senate cliff-hanger. The SD County Registrar
counted 22 more ballots in that race today, and they split 14
for Vargas, to 8 for Salas
That increases the Vargas lead in
the 3-county district from 6 votes last Friday, to 12 votes today.

……………………. UPDATE 8 p.m.:

Late this afternoon the efficient folks at SD Registrar of Voters
completed their count of the last 25 ballots from the primary
election. They found 1 more vote for Mary Salas, reducing the
Vargas lead district-wide to 11 votes.

June  28         Vargas   v   Salas

San Diego County tabulated 90 additional votes Monday in the
ultra-close 40th state senate primary… and they split 45 for Juan
Vargas
and 45 for Mary Salas…

That means Juan Vargas remains your Leader in the Clubhouse
district-wide with 24,124 votes to 24,118 for Mary Salas.

There are NO new updates so far today from Riverside or Imperial
counites. All of Imperial is in the 40th senate district, and roughly
8% of Riverside county.

June  25        Vargas   v   Salas  40  new

Completing an astonishing week-long comeback , Juan Vargas today claimed the LEAD over rival Mary Salas in their classic 40th district Democratic primary.

San Diego’s Registrar posted new results minutes ago.  No updates yet today in Riverside or Imperial counties.

The new overall totals for the three-county district are….
….Vargas….24,079…. Salas…. 24,073.

Vargas added 66 new San Diego votes today, while Salas received 59, a net gain of 7 votes for Vargas.

Their great race is not over yet… Riverside county has 12,000 uncounted ballots caught in a SNAFU with the Postal Service (a Judge will decide if those will be counted)….

ONE  Vote        salas  v   vargas

Does One Vote really matter? …. YES ! … With updates
today from Riverside and Imperial counties, State Senate
rivals Juan Vargas and Mary Salas are now just ONE
vote apart.

Vargas today added 16 votes to his Imperial lead (from
+911 to +927). Vargas reduced Salas’ lead in San Diego
from +853, to +822, this afternoon.

So your Updated June 24 totals for this 3- County senate
district are…. Mary Salas…24,014….Juan Vargas…24,013.

Riverside county (where Salas is + 106 votes)
did its most recent update last night.

Bulletins as they Break…. but think RECOUNT.

96  votes       Salas  v   Vargas

Oh Doctor ! …… What a 9th Inning rally Juan Vargas is putting on right now in the 40th State Senate district.

Today Vargas gained 54 more votes on Mary Salas in the San Diego County update (288 to 234). When added to totals in Imperial and Riverside counties, that cuts Ms. Salas’ overall lead district-wide to just 96 votes. (There were no updates in the other 2 counties today.)

Overall figures for this three-county contest as of June 23rd:
…. Mary Salas… 23,806…..Juan Vargas….23,710.

A possible Lesson in this evolving story? Never underestimate a Jesuit-trained opponent (which Mr. Vargas is). Not for nothing are the Jesuits affectionately called the Marine Corps of the Catholic Church !

Nail-biter      Salas  v   Vargas 40

In recent days, Juan Vargas has quietly closed ground on Mary Salas in their contest for the 40th senate Democratic nomination. The district includes parts of S.D., Imperial and Riverside counties.

But today Vargas really surged. Imperial County’s update showed the Vargas lead there growing to 911 votes, up from 809 yesterday. The San Diego update reduced the Salas lead here from 928 to 907 votes. Riverside has not updated since June 17, with Salas at +154 there.

Add it all up, and Juan Vargas has clawed to within 150 votes of Salas. Out of 47,000 cast… Salas…23,572…. Vargas… 23,422.

Just 1,000 more votes countywide were tabulated at the Registrar of Voters today (Tuesday) but that’s  enough to shake up results for Chula Vista council seat #2.

Aguilar added 56 votes to her total since yesterday, while the Galvez number rose 36 ballots. That puts them even at 6,554 votes. They are competing for a runoff spot against Larry Breitfelder, who is well ahead in 1st at 10,772 votes.

St. Anthony, patron of Lost Causes, is regarded by veteran observers as the moving factor whenever candidates stage miraculous comebacks.

Should the two candidates finish with identical numbers, the tie may be broken with a coin toss, cutting of cards, or other suitable method.

99   percent   completeWith 99% of all SD County ballots now counted, the “photo finish” race pictures are finally clearing up:

* Jill Galvez (6518) hangs on to a 20-vote lead v. Patricia Aguilar (6498) for the runoff spot in Chula Vista council seat # 2.

* Steve Rosen (11,310) KO’s SD school board incumbent Katherine Nakamura (11,003).

* Ron Nehring (14,805) appears to survive the challenge from Greg Stephens (14,706) in the 77th AD Rep. central committee contest.

My Compliments to SD Rostra

Sunday, June 13, 2010
posted by Assemblyman Brian Jones

I would like to say “Thank you” to the operators and contributors of SD Rostra.

Throughout the recent election, SD Rostra became a reliable source of information and debate.  I have to admit that I had my doubts about the quality of both (information and debate) based on prior experiences with other political blogs.  SD Rostra has done a great job of maintaining the highest quality of both.  I sincerely appreciate the spirited dialogue that vetted out different candidates and issues.

Brian Jones’ Mail in AD 77

Sunday, June 13, 2010
posted by Thor's Assistant

Control the Border

Click below to see four examples of the mail used by the Brian Jones campaign to win the GOP primary to succeed Joel Anderson in the conservative 77th Assembly District…

Jones 1 – Conservative Track Record

Jones 2 – Santee Firefighters

Jones 3 – We Must Control the Border

Jones 4 – Had Enough – Don’t Believe Smears

Here is the message Jones posted on Rostra a couple of days ago.

Congratulations to Brian on a great campaign and becoming the odds on favorite as the next Assemblyman!

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Who   is   Winning

A new leader in the Clubhouse at Chula Vista today, and the frontrunner is threatend with a late charge in Oceanside’s council derby.

CHULA VISTA
Jill Galvez (5041) passed Pat Aguilar (5014) for the 2nd runoff spot in Chula Vista, Council seat 2. Yesterday Aguilar led by 7 votes.

OCEANSIDE COUNCIL
The lead of liberal activist Chuck Lowery dropped from 118 votes yesterday, to just 43 votes today, over rival Lloyd Prosser… 7941 Lowery, 7898 Prosser… There are about 7500 more votes to count in O’side.

Thank You

Friday, June 11, 2010
posted by Assemblyman Brian Jones

I can’t thank you enough for your financial support, your dedicated volunteerism, your prayers and your vote.  Heather and I are humbled by the trust you have placed in us to represent the 77th Assembly District and grateful for the opportunity to serve you.

I am especially thankful for the love and support of Heather and my children.

It has been a true privilege serving the citizens of Santee over the last eight years.  I thank my Council colleagues for the opportunity to serve with them and for the time and energy they have invested in my life.

An Evening with the Barkeep

Friday, June 11, 2010
posted by Barkeep

Last night… downtown… the Barkeep speaks (as interpreted by me from notes):

Wayne in 2nd place in District 6 I believe must have surprised some people. Wasn’t even close, more than ten damn points if I remember. Give old Wayne the votes of Hadley and Tran’s votes to Zapf and we are looking at almost 50% for Zapf. Not a bad showing for her… snatched a pretty good victory out of the jaws of defeat. Don’t think anyone downtown thought she’d roll over him.

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