UPDATE, 9:15 pm, July 21st
Today’s San Diego county recount results are in for SD 40. They show a net 1 vote loss for Salas in this county. Earlier this evening, Riverside released their Day 3 Recount report, and Salas lost a net 3 votes there.
Juan Vargas’ totals remained unchanged today in each county. Both San Diego and Riverside re-checked 12 precincts each today.
For the moment, that moves the overall Juan Vargas lead to + 26 votes district-wide in the 40th state senate Demo primary.
Stay tuned to SD Rostra for all the live, local and late-breaking coverage.
The Riverside update is here. The bottom 12 precincts were counted today (July 21).
Thanks for the update. Per analysis of the two registrar offices, Riverside has had a total of 26 changes–plus or minus for both candidates–out of 3269 votes recounted. The margin of error here is just under 1% or about 1 error in 139 votes.
Though this may seem minute, there are more errors per 100 votes when compared with SD County. As of July 20, 2010, SD County had 7 changes out of 5888 votes counted. This margin of error is .1% or 1 change out of 841 votes.
If a similar trend holds in both counties, Riverside should have 34 more changes in their precincts and San Diego should have about 31 changes. This total of 65 future changes if the votes come out leaves little chance for a change to swing the race. In fact, it would probably end with a Vargas victory of around 30 votes.
Where else are you going to get Quality mathematical
regressions like this? City Beat? VOSD? SD Politico?
Forget about it.
Rostra has your math neeeds covered.
Sent: Jul 21, 2010 10:11p
**Breaking News** Moments ago Salas called Vargas and conceded the 40th SD Dem Primary. The recount is over!
sent via UberTwitter
Sent: Jul 21, 2010 10:23p
The Vargas win in SD 40 is a big problem for Sen. Prez. Steinberg, who pulled out all of the stops to try and elect Salas.
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Barry…. We were just reminded that you now have no excuses to keep from determining the results and winners of your election contest. This was the only race keeping your from finishing the job. Crunch the numbers and end the waiting, will ya?
The race is over and it was probably the most exciting political race that took place in this country. Our democratic system, though imperfect at times, is still the best way to govern a country.
In addition, the information on SD Rostra was cutting edge in this election, which helps the average person like me follow it.
i do think that we should question some of the other media outlets that all but declared a Salas victory in early June. In fairness to Riverside ROV, they counted their votes and made them available to the public much faster than SD County these last two days. Still, the county supervisors need to review why there were so many more errors in Riverside when compared with SD Couny or ballots that were challenged and overturned. My earlier post breaks down the math.
Perhaps one reason San Diego county’s Registrar
had fewer vote reversals is that they took their time
during the initial count, and did so again in the
recount process…. in order to get it right.
The best baseball umpires usually take one
extra second to call a close play. Better to be
correct than fast !