Posts Tagged ‘San Diego Mayor’
by John Nienstedt, President, Competitive Edge Research & Communication
My firm, Competitive Edge, uses Perception Analyzer™ dials to test TV ads, speeches, debate performance and even movies. Remember the movie “2016: Obama’s America”? We dial-tested it to uncover some fascinating findings about what aspects of the film – down to the second — influenced voters’ thinking.
TV ads are our most common dial test subjects. And why not? When campaigns have hundreds of thousands of dollars in ad buys to execute, they need to know what to bet on and what to avoid. Campaigns should employ dial-testing to make their ads stick with voters.
From County Republican Chairman Tony Krvaric’s email to “San Diego Leadership Team” members yesterday. Reprinted with permission.
The week started out great for Republicans, as we emerged united behind Kevin Faulconer for San Diego mayor, and continued all week as impressive endorsements started rolling in for Kevin.
By contrast, the campaign of Nathan Fletcher AKA “The Magic Democrat” had a VERY VERY VERY VERY BAD week.
Let’s look at it day by day…
Last night the Nathan Fletcher campaign was doing polling in San Diego. The entire set of questions was leaked. Another stumble out of the gate for this supposed team of professionals. The first one of course was the leak of his candidacy the morning of Mayor Filner’s resignation. Oops, cancel the planned big announcement!
The poll reveals much about the thinking in the Fletcher campaign which is rumored to have dumped Tom Shepard in favor of a pure union consultant firm. Hey, when you go union you have to go ALL IN. Well, they seem to have their work cut out for them. as I’ve never seen a more vapid, manufactured candidate in my life.
Politics & Media Mashup
I wrote a post six months ago comparing the Klout scores of San Diego mayoral candidates, council members and a few others who know their way around Facebook and Twitter. It generated a little buzz.
Tony Krvaric, Todd Gloria and others compared their scores on Twitter. Former U-T San Diego columnist Tom Blair mentioned the post in one of his columns and it was the subject of a short 10News story.
Klout is not without problems, so I took a little ribbing.
Just in time could be my life’s mantra. I am reminded by Thor’s Assistant that no Official Drinking Game has been devised for tonight’s epic 17th annual San Diego County Taxpayers Golden Fleece and Watchdog Awards.
Calling Ms. Tipit to the rescue.
DISCLAIMER: In this litigious, risk-averse society, we must pause here to admonish anyone reading this column that it is strictly for entertainment purposes ONLY. Please drink responsibly if at all. Please do not be a dunderhead and drink and tweet/post/drive, or you will be the next person we write about on Rostra and it won’t be pretty.
If Nathan had made the announcement about his party switch six-months ago it could have been construed as a statement of principle, but because he made the move six-weeks before the election it looks like an act of desperation by a candidate who is stuck in fourth place. Of course, that’s exactly where he is in the latest polling.
But Nathan’s big mistake is in his making the race partisan, which it wasn’t before — and that only helps Carl DeMaio and Bob Filner, both of whom carry official party endorsements. Voter intensity in a primary is driven by partisans and Republican turnout will be disproportionately higher in June because of the presidential ballot. If Nathan is going to rely on Decline to State (DTS) voters to carry him to November he’s whistling past the graveyard (see Tom Campbell).
I’m grateful for the support of Steve Francis. I look forward to working with Steve and all who support real reform so that we can finally get City Hall positioned to get San Diegans back to work.
We’re building a broad coalition of taxpayers, business leaders, and fiscal reformers who know that it takes more than rhetoric to effectively lead San Diego, create jobs and move our city forward.
Reports from the San Diego County Republican Party’s endorsement session this morning confirm that Carl DeMaio garnered the 2/3 vote needed for the group’s endorsement in the first round of voting.
Update 12:25 pm — It appears no endorsement will take place in the open 76th Assembly District, where Rocky Chavez, Farrah Douglas and Sherry Hodges are vying. No candidate achieved the 2/3 vote threshold.
Update 12:54 pm — Also no endorsement in AD 77, Brian Maienschein vs. Dustin Steiner.
Update 1:55 pm — Jim Miller, Jr.
and Garland Peed reported to gain endorsement s in open Superior Court Judge race s. We have confirmation on the Miller endorsement, awaiting Peed.
[captionpix imgsrc=”http://sdrostra.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/demaio.jpg” captiontext=”Carl DeMaio”]
Politics & Media Mashup is on break for the next few weeks so we can bring you exclusive Q & As with San Diego Mayoral candidates Carl DeMaio, Bonnie Dumanis and Nathan Fletcher.
We kicked off the series last week with Fletcher. We determined the order based on when the responses to our questions were received — first in, first up. Despite repeated attempts, no one from Bob Filner’s campaign would answer our questions, even though a staffer there said, “We read Rostra all the time.”
We just updated our supporters list. Thrilled that we are now at 6,400 supporters! Each of these people has either endorsed, donated or volunteered. That’s a 25% increase in one month.
Thank you to all the volunteers who have made the momentum possible with their tireless effort on the phones and door-to-door.
You can view the full list or join the team at www.CarlDeMaio.com
A message from Erik Caldwell to the San Diego Republican Central Committee:
Three things you should know before you vote tomorrow:
1. Yesterday the Carl DeMaio campaign acknowledged they sent an anonymous mailer to you in an attempt to distort Nathan Fletcher’s record. This is the type of gutter politics that has no place in our party. This election will undoubtedly get very contentious. We look forward to presenting voters with the differences between Fletcher and DeMaio, BUT we will not do it with anonymous mailers.
by Brian Brady
Who’s running the San Diego County Republican Central Committee, the grass roots activists or the elected officials?
If you’re a Republican volunteer or a tea party activist (like me), this game of “inside baseball” might irritate you. I’ll lay out what I see happening and you decide.
by Ryan Clumpner, Campaign Manager, Carl DeMaio for Mayor
If Nathan Fletcher has a problem with the abysmal scores he received from third party organizations, he should take up that dispute with them, not Carl DeMaio. Fletcher’s scores:
Republican Liberty Caucus: 62% (most liberal Republican)
California Republican Assembly: 56% (most liberal Republican)
Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association: B (second most liberal Republican)
Capitol Resource Family Impact: 20% (most liberal Republican)
Yesterday many of you received an anonymously mailed packet of materials. The sender cowardly hid behind an obscure PO Box and untraceable name, but we all know who was responsible for this—Carl DeMaio.
It is fine to call into question someone’s record – I fought in a war, I can defend my record and look forward to a spirited campaign about our city’s future.
But, let’s not play adolescent games and be cowardly about it.
Let’s be honest. Let’s be truthful. And let’s be direct.
DeMaio is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts.
Here are the facts:
Politics & Media Mashup is on break for the next few weeks so we can bring you exclusive Q & As with San Diego Mayoral candidates Nathan Fletcher, Carl DeMaio and Bonnie Dumanis.
We kick off this series with Fletcher. We determined the order based on when the responses to our questions were received — first in, first up. Despite repeated attempts, no one from Bob Filner’s campaign would answer our questions, even though a staffer there said, “We read Rostra all the time.”
The exchange between the Fletcher and DeMaio campaigns over endorsements has become one of the more interesting dynamics in the Mayor’s race. The UT has a good summary of it, but here is the gist:
After DeMaio was endorsed by the Building Industry Association, the Associated General Contractors and the Associated Builders and Contractors, Fletcher’s campaign spokeswoman Amy Thoma fired back.
“Carl DeMaio is a hypocrite when it comes to endorsements,” she said in a statement. “He criticizes his opponents for taking endorsements from groups with matters over which the mayor has control, saying they can’t be trusted to be unbiased, and then touts his own endorsements from groups with millions of dollars of projects before the city.”
San Diego District Attorney and Mayoral candidate Bonnie Dumanis released the following statement in response to this morning’s ruling that will allow San Diego’s Comprehensive Pension Reform initiative to go before voters on June 5th.
“I’m encouraged by today’s ruling allowing voters to have their say on pension reform in June. I support the Comprehensive Pension Reform Initiative and believe it’s critical to San Diego’s continuing financial recovery. Most importantly, once reforms are adopted by voters, we need a Mayor who has the proven executive experience and consensus-building skills to make sure pension reform actually gets implemented. As Mayor, I will work with all sides to make sure we implement real reform, with real savings that’s really going to stick.”
A poll has surfaced, taken mid-February, previewing what DA Bonnie Dumanis may hear from mayoral rivals in coming months. One question contrasts her support for the June Pension Reform measure with her own future county pension (as a Judge and DA), which the poll estimated at $240K a year. After hearing that contrast, 75 percent of respondents said it gave them serious or some doubts about her mayoral bid. Your correspondent considers the sourcing on this survey to be reliable.
The poll, done by a nationally-known political survey firm, is said to have been taken about Feb. 11th to 15th, with a sample size of over 300 high-propensity voters. The pension figure which the poll cites, appears to have come from a Voice of San Diego story on the subject
Last week was a busy one for polling. It’s odd to me that candidates would be polling now when we’re still a few weeks away from the close of filing. After all, someone could still get out or in and in that case your $20,000+ poll is junk.
Could it be that one or both of the candidates polling are still deciding whether or not they will actually move forward with filing? Here are the details…
A politically connected friend emailed me on the first poll, which was conducted by Mountain West Research. That company appears to be a phone bank and data collection firm, not an actual polling firm
For true San Diego poliwonks, New Year’s Eve was just a warm-up act. We know many of you have been saving yourself for the real deal: Political Debate Season 2012.
Starting Friday, January 13 with the first official San Diego Mayoral Debate of 2012, we will soon be subjected to a seemingly endless series of candidate debates and it will all become a blur.
But if you are a diligent citizen, you know you should be paying attention to the debates and learning about the candidates even if they deliver nothing but a painful litany of clichés. It’s enough to drive any red-blooded voter to drink.
I’m not the first political pundit to focus on the importance of social media in the political campaign mix. What’s also become increasingly important is search engine results.
A political candidate used to consider it a coup to be on the front page of the daily newspaper. It’s still a plus, but the modern version of the “front page” is Google. Getting high-ranking Google placement is like getting an article with a positive headline and color photo above-the-fold. (Don’t tell me if you’re a reader too young to have ever heard this term. Ye Gods).
Christine Kehoe, has decided she’d like to return to city hall and again screw up the city. During her city council days, she backed the unjustified, retroactive pension increases — including a lame duck session where she granted herself a pension to start IMMEDIATELY after she was termed out of her city office.
This will be fun! Well, for me, anyway.
With her in the race, I get to revisit the good old days at city hall when only a handful of us were raising the alarm about coming disasters. The citizens need to hear this story of her culpability, over and over.
My wife and I first met local talk show host turned nationally syndicated host Roger Hedgecock (heard locally on KOGO 600 AM) and his wife in December 2009. We were waiting in a long valet line at U.S. Grant after the Lincoln Club Annual Dinner. They were very gracious and chatted with us — a young, recently engaged couple — for over ten minutes while we all waited. Last week I met Hedgecock at his studio, and I was pleased to be greeted by the same down to earth demeanor. He exudes confidence without seeming to be impressed by his own celebrity. Memorabilia of different sorts adorn his office walls, but do not clutter it. Atop his desk were meticulously organized articles and other papers. If I had to choose though, I would say the item in his office that stands out the most is his camouflage upholstered tall back office chair.
Is Nathan Fletcher in or out for Mayor? This is the question it seems everyone is asking downtown, and the view is growing (downtown) that Fletcher may not take the risk. But over and over again, Fletcher insists that in fact he is running. He’s told numerous people that he will declare for the Mayor’s race in March. According to my calendar March has 31 days, and today is the 29th.
Maybe mayoral candidates should approach the 2012 election as if they were running for Homecoming King or Queen of San Diego. This seems to be Bonnie Dumanis’ tactic so far. She is willing to put herself out there… in the sense that she is willing to have folks voice their opinion about her at the ballot box. Of course, nominees for Homecoming court go through that too. As I recall from my own high school experience, and watching every coming of age movie including Mean Girls, the Homecoming court is determined by popularity alone. The nominees do not have to engage in questions of sales taxes, labor unions, deficit reduction, crumbling infrastructure, response times and business environment, to name several issues. First, Homecoming court nominees make a few big posters with markers. Then they smile at both the nerds and the popular kids for the week leading up to the vote. Finally, to their credit, they put their popularity on the line in front of God, man, the principal and the janitor. Dumanis seems more than willing to do that. However, she is not willing to put a stake in the ground on issues, especially fiscal ones.