Last week was a busy one for polling. It’s odd to me that candidates would be polling now when we’re still a few weeks away from the close of filing. After all, someone could still get out or in and in that case your $20,000+ poll is junk.
Could it be that one or both of the candidates polling are still deciding whether or not they will actually move forward with filing? Here are the details…
A politically connected friend emailed me on the first poll, which was conducted by Mountain West Research. That company appears to be a phone bank and data collection firm, not an actual polling firm
Based on the line of questioning, it was likely a Bonnie Dumanis poll or a poll conducted on behalf of her by supporters. He said that while it was very Dumanis centered, it seemed to be looking for an accurate snap shot of the race and tested a variety of arguments for and against the various candidates.
The same cannot be said about the second poll which was conducted by Sun Surveys. That company is also a phone bank and data collection company, not an actual polling firm.
My neighbor personally received this survey and unlike the Bonnie poll, this one was very biased…towards Nathan Fletcher. It tested a ton of positive arguments for Fletcher, a few arguments against Dumanis and Filner and many arguments against DeMaio. Then it retested the ballot.
This type of polling was almost certainly conducted by Fletcher’s campaign and based on the flawed proportion of questioning, it could may very well be used to show donors “momentum.”
What interested me most about this poll was that my neighbor said several questions were asked about DeMaio’s sexuality and whether that would change his opinion of DeMaio. It is well known that DeMaio is gay but it is also well known that DeMaio has focused his time in office and on the campaign trail on fixing San Diego’s fiscal issues, not promoting a social agenda. The poll did not ask questions about Dumanis’ sexuality. She is also gay and has never made a major issue of her sexuality.
Conversely, Fletcher has actively pushed a social agenda; most notably being the only GOP legislator in Sacramento to support the very controversial SB48, which teaches gay history to school children. The bill was opposed by religious groups, social conservatives and even the LA Times Editorial Board which admonished, “politicians ought not be in the position to politicize students’ education.”
Could Fletcher be setting up to attack the more conservative DeMaio on his sexuality? Would he be that bold to throw stones in a glass house, especially as he continues to aggressively court the gay community?
That doesn’t add up to me which leads me to question my original assertion that this poll was commissioned by Fletcher. So what other group has an interest in promoting Fletcher and tearing down DeMaio? Simple: Public Employee Labor Unions.