Two Mayoral Polls Last Week

Owen Kellogg Owen Kellogg 8 Comments

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Last week was a busy one for polling.  It’s odd to me that candidates would be polling now when we’re still a few weeks away from the close of filing.  After all, someone could still get out or in and in that case your $20,000+ poll is junk.

Could it be that one or both of the candidates polling are still deciding whether or not they will actually move forward with filing?  Here are the details…

A politically connected friend emailed me on the first poll, which was conducted by Mountain West Research.  That company appears to be a phone bank and data collection firm, not an actual polling firm

Based on the line of questioning, it was likely a Bonnie Dumanis poll or a poll conducted on behalf of her by supporters. He said that while it was very Dumanis centered, it seemed to be looking for an accurate snap shot of the race and tested a variety of arguments for and against the various candidates.

The same cannot be said about the second poll which was conducted by Sun Surveys.  That company is also a phone bank and data collection company, not an actual polling firm.

My neighbor personally received this survey and unlike the Bonnie poll, this one was very biased…towards Nathan Fletcher.  It tested a ton of positive arguments for Fletcher, a few arguments against Dumanis and Filner and many arguments against DeMaio.  Then it retested the ballot.

This type of polling was almost certainly conducted by Fletcher’s campaign and based on the flawed proportion of questioning, it could may very well be used to show donors “momentum.”

What interested me most about this poll was that my neighbor said several questions were asked about DeMaio’s sexuality and whether that would change his opinion of DeMaio.  It is well known that DeMaio is gay but it is also well known that DeMaio has focused his time in office and on the campaign trail on fixing San Diego’s fiscal issues, not promoting a social agenda.  The poll did not ask questions about Dumanis’ sexuality.  She is also gay and has never made a major issue of her sexuality.

Conversely, Fletcher has actively pushed a social agenda; most notably being the only GOP legislator in Sacramento to support the very controversial SB48, which teaches gay history to school children.  The bill was opposed by religious groups, social conservatives and even the LA Times Editorial Board which admonished, “politicians ought not be in the position to politicize students’ education.”

Could Fletcher be setting up to attack the more conservative DeMaio on his sexuality?  Would he be that bold to throw stones in a glass house, especially as he continues to aggressively court the gay community?

That doesn’t add up to me which leads me to question my original assertion that this poll was commissioned by Fletcher.  So what other group has an interest in promoting Fletcher and tearing down DeMaio?  Simple: Public Employee Labor Unions.

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Comments 8

  1. Owen, your last paragraph conclusion — pegging the labor unions as backing the “pro Fletcher” poll — sounds accurate to me. The unions are flailing around for ANYONE who can beat DeMaio. Fletcher himself gains little from such smarmy polls — and doubtless he has astute advisors.

    I think that the union bosses are beginning to realize that Filner ain’t the guy. His negatives are too high, and his blatant socialist record (including being a long-time member of the Socialist Congressional caucus) will bring him down.
    http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2010/08/american-socialists-release-names-of-70-congressional-democrats-in-their-caucus/

    While the unions will give Filner some backing, they figure a Republican wins in November. All the unions really want is for DeMaio to lose.

    Given that, I think Dumanis would be their first choice, with Fletcher a close second (and Fletcher has a better chance of winning). But regardless the unions won’t really BACK the “other” GOP candidate so much as smear Carl.

    Thank Goodness for DVR’s. TV will become unbearable this election year — if you don’t fast forward the commercials.

  2. I almost never comment, but the stupidity of the commentary herein requires strong push back–with my name firmly attached.

    Anyone who thinks Nathan would use one’s sexuality as an issue is seriously out of touch with the tone, tenor, and focus of all the campaigns in this very important mayoral race. Fiscal issues are paramount. Vision, energy, and leadership skills are key.

    Thor, you should put a bullet in Owen’s laptop. This is idiocy unworthy your blog.

  3. To reiterate the last paragraph…

    “That doesn’t add up to me which leads me to question my original assertion that this poll was commissioned by Fletcher.  So what other group has an interest in promoting Fletcher and tearing down DeMaio? Simple: Public Employee Labor Unions.”

    We don’t know what could be clearer than that — the author originally thinking the poll had to be conducted by team Fletcher, then changing his mind once the questions turned to sexuality.

    Also, we don’t censor bloggers based on provocative or even unpopular content. If readers believe that content is idiotic, they have an avenue. Expressing their opinion.

    We appreciate Ms. Littler expressing hers.

  4. Didn’t we see this same backdoor garbage campaign against DeMaio attempted by the unions during the District 5 election in ’08.

  5. If the Unions were afraid of DeMaio becoming Mayor, and they are, then they should talk Filner into dropping out of the race. With Filner out, DeMaio probably doesn’t even make the run-off; he certainly doesn’t beat Fletcher or Dumanis in the General Election.

  6. This is an interesting theory, a little far-fetched perhaps, but it inadvertently highlights the power of city unions in our civic life, particularly the MEA, which is very real.

    The MEA effectively controls the City administration. From this vantage point it exerts enormous power over the other city unions. Acting together the city unions then exert enormous power over the general union movement.

    The general union movement relies on the city unions to extract things like living wage and project labor agreements from a largely entrapped City Council. In return the general union movement supports city unions’ pension benefits.

    Why else would struggling private-sector blue collar workers support guaranteed pensions for city administrators?

    If Filner wants the job he has to escape Zucchet’s vice grip and fight for the mayor’s office on behalf of the people not on behalf of city unions.

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