Leaked: Nathan Fletcher Internal Campaign Poll

Eliot Ness Eliot Ness 13 Comments

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Last night the Nathan Fletcher campaign was doing polling in San Diego. The entire set of questions was leaked. Another stumble out of the gate for this supposed team of professionals. The first one of course was the leak of his candidacy the morning of Mayor Filner’s resignation. Oops, cancel the planned big announcement!

The poll reveals much about the thinking in the Fletcher campaign which is rumored to have dumped Tom Shepard in favor of a pure union consultant firm. Hey, when you go union you have to go ALL IN. Well, they seem to have their work cut out for them. as I’ve never seen a more vapid,  manufactured candidate in my life.

For instance, their message testing about his position at Qualcomm about how he “helps to lead global business initiatives using technology to positively transform people’s lives” has to be the most meaningless manufactured accomplishment ever created. What in the world is that supposed to mean? Shows how little they have to work with.

Poor Nathan. He wants this so bad, but other than shepherding Chelsea’s Law – as admirable as that is, though hardly a “tough” bill – and serving in the military as tens of millions of patriots before him, he is really nothing more than a pretty face. A pretty face for sale to the highest bidder. His support is a mile wide and an inch deep. Paper tiger.

It was difficult not commenting after many of the questions. Especially those that are so generic and so weak, some are false choices, others are contradictory and some plain fiction about his supposed accomplishments.

Perhaps some professional pollsters can chime with a more thorough analysis and I’m sure other armchair pollsters like myself will offer some opinions.

Enough editorializing. I’m sure Democratic special election voters will love him. Here’s the full, leaked poll. Read and judge for yourself.

CONFIDENTIAL
Nathan Fletcher Internal Campaign Poll, Tuesday, August 27
Mountain West Research

QUESTIONS

We’d like your opinion about political issues facing San Diego.

Q) Have I reached you on a cell phone or a land line?

Q) Are you a news reporter, elected official, staff to an elected official or a high level employee of local government?

Bob Filner recently resigned as mayor of San Diego. There will soon be a special election to choose a new Mayor.

Q) What is the chance that you will vote in that election?

Definitely
Probably
50/50
Probably not vote

Q) How would you rate the quality of life in San Diego today?

Excellent
Good
Only fair
Poor

Q) In the last few years has the quality of life in San Diego…

Improved
Stayed the same
Gotten worse

Q) What are the two or three most important issues that you would like the next mayor to focus on?

Q) When thinking about the next mayor of San Diego, would you prefer a candidate who was a member of the Democratic Party, Republican Party or does this not matter to you?

Q) Generally, which is more important to you? Increasing funding for public schools or keeping taxes low?

Q) On the issue of abortion do you consider yourself pro-life or pro-choice?

Q) Which is more important to you? Increasing the minimum wage so that working people don’t have to live in poverty or reducing regulations on businesses to increase job growth?

Q) I’m going to read you the names of some public figures and groups. Please tell me if you have a Favorable or Unfavorable opinion of each, and then if that’s Somewhat or Strongly?

Councilmember Marti Emerald
State Senator Marty Block
Former Mayor Jerry Sanders
Former Assemblyman Nathan Fletcher
Qualcomm
Supervisor Ron Roberts
Mayor Bob Filner
Former Councilmember Carl DeMaio
Interim Mayor Todd Gloria
Councilmemnber Kevin Faulconer
San Diego City Firefighters
San Diego Police Officers Association

Q) I know you will gather more information before choosing a candidate but if the Special Election to choose a new mayor was held today and the candidates were…

Businessman Carl DeMaio
Educator and Businessman Nathan Fletcher
City Councilmember Kevin Faulconer
Interim Mayor Todd Gloria
Supervisor Ron Roberts

…for whom would you vote?

Q) And who would be your second choice?

Q) And if the choice was just between…

Educator and Businessman Nathan Fletcher
Supervisor Ron Roberts

…for whom would you vote?

Q) And if the choice was just between…

Educator and Businessman Nathan Fletcher
Businessman Carl DeMaio

…for whom would you vote?

Q) When thinking about the next mayor, which type of candidate would you prefer?

A candidate who will focus on fixing the city budget and improving city services…

…or a candidate who will focus on restoring honor and integrity to the mayor’s office?

Much more or Somewhat more?

Q) When thinking about the next mayor, which type of candidate would you prefer?

A candidate who will focus on the nuts and bolts of running the city day to day…

…or a candidate who will implement a bold vision to improve the city for the future?

Much more or Somewhat more?

Q) When thinking about the qualities you seek in a mayor, which of the following words or phrases is most important to you?

Maverick
Family man
Honest
Steady
Independent
Understands us
Energetic and enthusiastic

Q) Do you happen to know if Carl DeMaio is a Democrat, Independent, Republican or do you not know?

Q) Do you happen to know if Nathan Fletcher is a Democrat, Independent, Republican or do you not know?

Q) I’m going to describe the candidates briefly and ask you to vote again for mayor…

Todd Gloria is a 35 year old Democrat. He’s the president of the San Diego City Council. He is openly gay and was previously the district director of Congresswoman Susan Davis.

Nathan Fletcher is a 36 year old Democrat who was recently a Republican and an Independent. He is a decorated veteran of the Marines, a businessman, a father and served for four years in the California State Assembly.

Kevin Faulconer is a 46 year old Republican who is now serving his second term on the San Diego City Council. He was previously an executive at a public relations firm.

Carl DeMaio is a 38 year old Republican who finished second in last year’s mayor’s race. He is the author of the San Diego ballot measure that eliminates guaranteed pensions for new city employees.

Ron Roberts is a 71 year old Republican who currently serves as a San Diego County supervisor. Before being elected supervisor in 1995 he served two terms on the San Diego City Council and was a managing partner of a San Diego architectural firm.

Q) Now that you have heard more, if the special election to choose a new mayor was held today and the candidates were…

Businessman Carl DeMaio
Educator and Businessman Nathan Fletcher
City Councilmember Kevin Faulconer
Interim Mayor Todd Gloria
Supervisor Ron Roberts

…for whom would you vote?

Now I’m going to provide more information about the candidates. For this survey I’m going to provide more details about Nathan Fletcher.

For each statement please tell me if the statement is …

Very convincing
Somewhat convincing
Not very convincing
Not at all convincing

…in getting you to support Nathan Fletcher. If you think the statement is false, just say so.

When a local newspaper asked for Fletcher’s complete military records, which only he can authorize, Fletcher provided the complete records with no redactions.

The paper wrote that the records portray a young Fletcher who was highly proficient in his service, became a supervisor and was dedicated to his country.

Q) Do you find this statement to be…. [repeat choices above]

Fletcher has always been focused on working together to solve problems in spite of Sacramento’s big partisan divisions. Fletcher worked with all parties to get important legislation approved, including tax reform and Chelsea’s Law to protect against violent sex offenders.

Q) Do you find this statement to be…. [repeat choices above]

Fletcher entered the United States Marine Corps in 2002 and worked as a counter intelligence and human intelligence specialist. Fletcher was awarded the Joint Service Commendation, Global War on Terrorism Expeditionary Medal.

Q) Do you find this statement to be…. [repeat choices above]

Fletcher, age 36, grew up in a working class family. He was the first in his family to go to college by receiving academic and baseball scholarships. He worked his way through college and now lives in San Diego with his wife and two young sons.

Q) Do you find this statement to be…. [repeat choices above]

After Fletcher brought Republicans and Democrats together to pass Chelsea’s Law to increase penalties on violent sexual predators who go after children, a local newspaper wrote “Fletcher’s hard work and bipartisan coalition building has paid off in stunning fashion. The state will be safer as a result.”

Q) Do you find this statement to be…. [repeat choices above]

Fletcher works for Qualcomm and helps to lead global business initiatives using technology to positively transform people’s lives.

Q) Do you find this statement to be…. [repeat choices above]

Fletcher is not like other politicians. He has always stood up for the issues he believes in regardless of whether they were known as Democratic or Republican issues. And he has said he has been affected by his life experiences such as having a child entering kindergarten and serving as an active duty Marine in Iraq.

Q) Do you find this statement to be…. [repeat choices above]

As mayor Fletcher will get San Diego’s budget back on track by being fiscally conservative and direct taxpayer money to the most important priorities like creating jobs, improving education and making city services function efficiently.

Q) Do you find this statement to be…. [repeat choices above]

Q) After hearing this information. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Nathan Fletcher? Somewhat or strongly?

Q) First he was registered as a Republican, then changed his party affiliation to independent last year when running for mayor and then changed his registration to Democrat.

Would this information make you…

Much more positive
Somewhat more positive
Somewhat more negative
Much more negative

…about Fletcher – or would it make no difference to you?

Q) Critics of Fletcher say that he is a political opportunist. He was a Republican until he lost the Republican Party endorsement and then ran for mayor as an Independent and lost so then he decided to run as a Democrat because it’s hard for Independents to win elections. Basically he has no core values. Fletcher says his political party has changed as he has learned a great deal over the past few years but the issues he will fight for every day; good jobs, improve education, improve public safety, and a sensible city budget that lives within its means are not partisan issues.

Now hearing this, do you…

Strongly trust
Somewhat trust
Somewhat distrust
Strongly distrust

…Nathan Fletcher?

Q) Now that you’ve heard more, if the special election to choose a new mayor were held today and the candidates were…

Businessman Carl DeMaio
Educator and Businessman Nathan Fletcher
City Councilmember Kevin Faulconer
Interim Mayor Todd Gloria
Supervisor Ron Roberts

…for whom would you vote?

Q) And if the choices were just between…

Educator and Businessman Nathan Fletcher
Supervisor Ron Roberts

…for whom would you vote?

Q) And if the choices were just between…

Educator and Businessman Nathan Fletcher
Businessman Carl DeMaio

…for whom would you vote?

Q) After everything you’ve heard about Nathan Fletcher today what one word would you use to describe him?

Q) After everything you’ve heard, which phrase best describes Nathan Fletcher?

Maverick
Opportunist
Family man
Honest
Steady
Typical politician
Unqualified
Independent
Understands us
Energetic and enthusiastic

Q) What is your age?

Q) Which of the following best describes your educational background:

Not a high school graduate
High school graduate, but no college
Some college but not a college graduate
College graduate but not post graduate
College graduate with some post graduate study
Post graduate degree

Q) Do you have children under the age of 18 living at home?

Q) Which of the following ethnic groups describe you?

[standard]

Q) Are you of Hispanic or Latino descent?

Q) Do you consider yourself…

Progressive
Liberal
Moderate
Conservative

Q) Which political party do you currently most identify with?

Democratic
Republican
Independent

Strongly or not so strongly?

Q) Are you or is anyone in your household a member of a labor union or employee association?

Q) Have you or anyone in your household ever served in the military?

Q) Do you consider yourself…

Heterosexual
Bisexual
Gay
Lesbian

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Comments 13

  1. Two things:

    1. Not even Nathan Fletcher knows the answer to this question: Q) Do you happen to know if Nathan Fletcher is a Democrat, Independent, Republican or do you not know?

    2. I do not see the option “Tool” in this list: Q) After everything you’ve heard, which phrase best describes Nathan Fletcher? Maverick, Opportunist, Family man, Honest, Steady, Typical politician, Unqualified, Independent, Understands us, Energetic and enthusiastic.

  2. The polling tests multiple Fletcher positives and a weak negative before redoing the ballot test. Generally that means that the final ballot test is skewed.

  3. Wow, this survey was able to mention Fletcher’s name more than his mail pieces/emails… Impressive. Only 4 mentions of his military service, though. I’m sure they’ll be stepping that up on the campaign trail.

  4. I can’t fathom that Fletcher is being billed as an “educator and businessman”? Legislator, Marine? Sure. Educator and businessman? That is like labeling me a brewmaster for walking into a 7-11 and buying a 12-pack of Bud Light. Or being called an astronaut for looking up and pointing at the Moon.

    Seriously, that is offensive to any teacher that has taught anywhere from K-12 to University level that has spent any time in the trenches.

    And “Businessman”? My head just exploded. Getting handed a high level puff job by a local billionaire CEO doesn’t make you a businessman. Ever had to manage a budget Nathan? How about firing someone? Ever had to exist in the business world for ONE DAY without the government taxation ATM or a multi-billion dollar corporation’s deep pockets behind you? Ever had to manage cash flow? Ever have to try and pull in long receivables to manage your payables?

    Like seriously, wow… mind blown

  5. Awesome! You had me at “My head just exploded.” Can’t add anything to a perfect summary of Nathan Fletcher!!

  6. Questions for Mr. Fletcher:

    1. Do you support the Jacobs Plan for Balboa Park, the By Pass Bridge that would deface the Iconic Cabrillo Bridge, the introduction of paid parking throughout the Park and Zoo for the first time in 100 years, and the creation of $25,000,000 in new debt for the City?

    2. Do you support the City’s appeal of the Superior Court case that held the Jacobs Plan to be unlawful?

    3. Do you support an amendment to the City’s historic preservation ordinance that would make the destruction of historic structures easier?

    4. Do you support a subsidy of hundreds of millions of dollars for the privately held, for-profit business owned by the Spanos family?

    5. Do you believe it was wise to retain the proceeds from the Guest Tax and not release these funds to be spent by the Tourist Marketing District until the hotels indemnified the City from claims should this tax be held by the courts to be unlawful?

    6. Are you a Republican, Independent or Democrat?

    7. Your spouse has been a very active and very conservative Republican. Does she influence your political opinions?

    8. What have you been doing at Qualcomm to earn your compensation?

    9. Do you support the expansion of the Convention Center at public expense at a time when there is a glut of exhibition space in major cities in the United States, and such space is being given away? For example, the TOTAL rent for the entire Convention Center for Comic Con this year was only $150,000. Rents like this can never pay the debt for expansion. Do you believe the public should pay the half billion dollar costs for a Convention Center expansion, when the only beneficiaries are for-profit hotel owners?

    10. Have you ever voted for a Democrat for the office of President of the United States?

    11. You were the in-district aid to Rep. Randy Cunningham, a fact omitted from your official campaign biography. While you held that position, Rep. Cunningham drove a Rolls Royce and lived in a multi-million dollar Rancho Santa Fe mansion, paid for by bribes taken for years from government contractors. Did you ever ask Rep. Cunningham how he was supporting his lavish lifestyle on a congressional salary? Or did you chose to turn a knowingly blind eye to these facts?

    Thank you.

  7. Mark, please document the salary you mentioned in number 8 with a link or some proof. In the meantime, the number you mentioned has been removed, but will be reposted if it is correct.

    What is the point of number 6?

  8. 12. What policies of Filner’s don’t you agree with?

    13. What policies of the Public Employee Unions don’t you agree with?

    14. What Republican policies do you agree with?

  9. It’s telling to me that Nathan Fletcher is being labeled as an “educator” and “businessman” but not a “Marine.” A retired Marine and local political observer I know (30 years, Iraq veteran) will rarely speak ill of a fellow Marine, but he’s disgusted with Fletcher’s flip flopping. He sees it as contrary to everything a true Marine believes in, particularly loyalty. Fletcher can be bought, this much is known and that’s honestly all I need to know.

  10. Observation about the poll:
    Why is Todd Gloria called out for being gay and yet Carl Demaio is not?
    I do not think sexual orientation should matter, but for some voters it does. San Diego has one of the largest LGBT communities in the world. Let’s try not to discriminate about who a person chooses to lay beside.

  11. Gayle,
    You aren’t the only one who has heard this. Many in the military find what he says disgusting and beneath the service. His arrogance and lack of class are just unbelievable.

  12. Another thing reasonable Ds and Rs have in common besides mutual disgust with the predatory antics of Bob Filner: a deep and viscerally negative reaction to political chameleons. It’s a sad truth that attack ads work and work well. It’s also a happy truth that people tend to reject a person whose core ideology turns on a dime. Constituents can forgive out-of-character votes on issues when well-reasoned arguments are involved. History shows that majorities of constituents also will remain loyal through white lies, personal economic blunders, marital affairs, chemical addiction, hugely embarassing verbal gaffes… even Iran-Contra. What constituents– right or left– won’t embrace is a leader they perceive as playing spin-the-bottle with his fundamental principles. As tired saying goes: You’ve got to stand for something or you’ll fall for anything. Mr. Fletcher stands only for blind ambition. While he would have the left believe he’s seen some sort of light, the facts give him away. The statements he made during his failed bid for the GOP nod for mayor last year will appear in mailers and commercials. Mercifully, that will end this experiment in abject phoniness. I am optimistic that most democrats (ordinary people, not insiders) are as likely to embrace Fletcher 3.0 as they were Fletcher 2.0, which is to say, not at all.

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