National political trends and hard work by the Republican Party of San Diego give Republicans a healthy early lead in Mail Ballots handled to date by the SD County Registrar of Voters.
As of midday Monday, registered Republicans made up 44% of the total 191,080 ballots received, compared to 35% who are registered Democrats. Non-partisans are at 17%, and the minor parties make up 4%. The raw totals are 84,323 GOP, 67,351 Dems, 32,571 non-partisan, and 6,835 minor parties.
These definitive figures are from the SD County Registrar of Voters office.
By contrast, Republicans comprise only 36% of all registered SD County voters, and 39% of those requesting mail ballots. So to be at 44% of the actual mail votes received is a major sign of progress.
Considerable credit is due to Republican Party of SD Chairman Tony Krvaric and executive director Barrett Tetlow, who focus significant time and resources on building GOP registration and mail voting. Their investment is paying dividends now.
These new figures mirror similar mail vote trends in other States and reflect the “enthusiasm gap” detected by pollsters when they interview rank-and-file Reps. and Dems.
…………………COMPARING TREND TO JUNE 2010 primary
SD Rostra saw a similar pattern in the June primary, but wondered if that was because the GOP had contested races for Governor (Whitman v. Poizner) and Senate (Fiorina v. Campbell v. DeVore) while Democrats had virtually unopposed nominees (Brown, Boxer).
Instead, however, the Republican mail ballot lead this time is slightly Larger than in the primary! … The GOP edge at this stage of the primary was 8 % (44-36)…. Now it is at a full 9% advantage (44-35).
……………………….IMPACT ON LOCAL RACES
Any experienced campaigner will tell you that a shift of 5% can change the outcome of many contests. So this is a good sign for candidates like Loriw Zapf, Nick Popaditch, Bill Horn, Brian Jones, Ron Roberts and Ernie Dronenburg among others.
For benefit of Gayle Falkenthal… Libertarians are a solid 2nd place in ballots returned among the minor parties (with 1,089), far ahead of the Greens (570), Peace & Freedom (158) and miscellaneous (27). But the American Independents remain #1 with 4,991 so far.
Comments 7
Thanks for the props. I’ve sliced the numbers slightly differently, and also broken out the City of San Diego numbers. http://t.co/hbPjm20
Thank you for the added data, Mr. Chairman !
A greater inclination for Reps to turn out than Dems could be the deciding factor on such questions as Prop D, the sales tax increase in the City of San Diego.
If I am reading the statistics correctly, it would appear that 1% of the Democratic mail in vote is oustanding versus 5% of the Rebublican mail in vote. Doesn’t this mean that the Democrats are more committed to this election than the Republicans? Or it could mean that 5% of the Republicans are waiting to the last minute to see which way the wind is blowing. Jess thinkin.
Not Rocket Science:
The bulk of mail ballots, Republican, Democratic,
Independent, and Minor Party are still out there in
the hands of the people who requested them.
And by “the bulk” I mean about 2/3.
It is meaningful, however, that Republicans are
getting those ballots completed and mailed-in
at a higher rate so far than are Democrats.
Far more than 1 to 5 percent of the mail ballots are outstanding. Republicans are both requesting and mailing ballots in at a higher rate than party registration in the county, which is significant.
See update…
http://sdrostra.com/?p=9303