That said, it’s still significantly early. Name ID can be softened just as significantly with financial resources and momentum. Appointed Sheriff Bill Gore and former Assemblyman Jay La Suer have plenty of time to pick up both. Alternatively, Jim Duffy has the same amount of time to try to translate left-over name ID into something that heads off a closing pack.
This race will be way closer than the early polling shows, but this does help spell out for the entire field how to strategize going forward.
Watch for Duffy to continue to capitalize on his family name, while balancing that against his own background and leadership skills, as well as his support by labor groups.
Watch Gore try to springboard on the support of retired Sheriff Bill Kolender, mixing in appointed incumbency and a hopeful perception on the part of the citizenry that all is okay in copland, so why change anything.
Watch for La Suer to continue solidifying his conservative base, damn the unions and the establishment, while emphasizing that problems do exist in the sheriff’s office, and that neither labor nor establishment thinking will fix anything.
Watch Bruce Ruff say that they’re all the problem.
Jim Duffy, Candidate for San Diego County Sheriff, Leads in the Polls
SAN DIEGO – If the election were held today, Jim Duffy, candidate for San Diego County Sheriff, wins, according to a 10News poll conducted by SurveyUSA.
Among likely voters who have made up their minds, Duffy leads over his nearest challenger by 17%, 41% to 24%.
“Voters realize I am the only law enforcement candidate with real and recent experience,” Duffy said.
The Duffy family has been involved in law enforcement in San Diego County for five decades.
“I am encouraged by this support, but understand it is early and will continue to earn the voters’ confidence. Our message of keeping the citizens of San Diego County safe and being fiscally efficient and prudent seems to be resonating,” Duffy continued.
Duffy leads in every demographic category, including race, age, income level, gender, and party affiliation.
Among 403 likely voters, Jim Duffy leads with 24%. Bill Gore and Jay LaSuer trail with 14% each. Bruce Ruff received 5% with 42% undecided.
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UPDATE 7:20 PM — Here’s all the info and data that only a hack and/or a wonk could possibly relish in…
Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #16041
Geography Surveyed: San Diego County
Data Collected: 11/11/2009 – 11/12/2009
Release Date: 11/13/2009 11:45 ET
Sponsor: KGTV-TV San Diego
|San Diego County Not Yet Focused on Sheriff’s Election, 7 Months Out: 7 months until San Diego County voters elect a sheriff, even the most likely voters have barely begun to pay attention to the contest, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KGTV-TV. 4 of 10 voters have no preference today. Among voters who do have a preference, Jim Duffy may have a slight early advantage over Bill Gore and Jay LaSuer. Gore’s support is disproportionately Hispanic. LaSuer’s support is disproportionately male. But Duffy’s support is even across the county’s white, Hispanic and Asian populations, is even across young and old, even across rich and poor, even across males and females, and strikingly even across Republicans, Democrats and Independents … conservatives, moderates and liberals.|
|Filtering: 1,100 San Diego County adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 11/11/09 and 11/12/09. Of them 928 were registered to vote. Of them, 403 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in June 2010.|
|1||Asked of 403 Likely Voters|
|Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 5%|
|If the primary for San Diego County Sheriff were today, would you vote for … (choices rotated) Jim Duffy? Bill Gore? Jay LaSuer? Or, Bruce Ruff?|
|x||Complete Interactive Crosstabs|
|i||Statement of Methodology|
|!||© 2009 SurveyUSA / Contractual Obligations|