New Channel 10/Survey USA Poll — Carl DeMaio 31%, Bob Filner 21%, Nathan Fletcher 21%, Bonnie Dumanis 13%

Jim Sills Jim Sills 10 Comments


Channel 10 News and polling firm Survey USA just released a new Mayoral Poll and their conclusion is that “Carl DeMaio appears to have locked-up one of two runoff spots … with a fierce fight for the second runoff position … On Monday, Council member DeMaio gets 31%, Nathan Fletcher and Rep. Bob Filner tie for the second runoff spot, each with 21%.  Bonnie Dumanis is further back.”

VOTES  BY  MAIL … Among the 12% of respondents who have already voted by mail, results are:  DeMaio 37%,  Filner 20%, Fletcher 16%, Dumanis 16%.

Survey USA’s  analysis says 525 likely voters were  interviewed between May 11th and May 13th. Channel 10 says the survey has a margin of error of  + – 4.4%.  Their mayoral poll of April 12 had DeMaio at 28%, Fletcher 26%, Filner 20% and Dumanis 13%.

Proposition  B  Pension Reform  Leads by 32

The new KGTV/ SUSA poll also shows the City Pension Reform measure, Proposition B, with a comfortable 32-point lead… 54% Yes to just 22%  No.  And in a  sign of where the Undecideds will eventually go, Prop. B  leads by a bigger margin — 63% to 26% — among those wh0 have already voted.  The April 12 survey showed Prop. B leading 55% to 15%.


Comments 10

  1. If I am Bob Filner I am really disappointed at my “friends” in labor.

    Quite frankly Lorena has let him down. Instead of making sure that he is in the runoff, they’re spending their time and money bashing DeMaio and it obviously isn’t working. It seems like Filner will eventually squeak out 2nd place but Lorena isn’t doing him any favors by hating on DeMaio much more then she says she supports Filner.

  2. Labor’s growing fondness for Fletcher goes beyond just its anti-DeMaio obsession. They see him as “their” stealth Democrat — the opportunistic wolf in sheep’s “independent” clothing who, if he wins, will be both obligated to labor today, and likely to join the Democratic Party later when he chooses to run for Governor.

    Filner is getting tossed under the bus, which is generating incredibly conflicting emotions among both regional limited government advocates and the Democrat party faithful.

  3. Gonzalez/Labor Council’s non campaigning for Filner is very strange. At this point, she’s risking her long term relationship with him by not making him a priority.

    Since it looks like DeMaio is getting into the runoff,If she wants Bob, she needs to actually do something.

  4. I like that Jim Sills and Richard Rider post under their names. The whole anonymous thing is so lame.

  5. Richard was enthralled by Filner’s megawatt smile. None of the other candidates can come close to matching it.
    This verges on more information than we need to know.
    😉 Jim Sills

  6. The Final election results are DeMaio 31.68%; Filner 30.21%; Fletcher 24.14%; and Dumanis 13.27%.

    All candidates, except Filner, were inside the margin of error + or – 4.4%. Filner increased 9.21%, more than twice the margin of error.

    The poll showed 8% for undecided, and 6% for other for a total of 14%. Filner received 64% of the undecided/other votes, with the remainder going to Fletcher.

    Since Filner’s votes were more than twice the margin of error, it appears that there was a significant error in the polling method used.

    The poll is partially accurate in showing the overall candidate vote getting, in that DeMaio is in fact the highest vote getter and did receive 31%, and Dumanis the lowest (of the four main candidates) and did receive 13%. It is a little unsettling how inaccurate the poll is related to Bob Filner.

  7. Anon: Unsettling? It’s a freakin’ SurveyUSA poll taken THREE WEEKS before the election. Three weeks is a lifetime between a poll and election day. Other than giving a rough snapshot at the time of the poll, not election day, SurveyUSA is not known for the best methodology. Also, the poll may have assumed a higher turnout. All of this means that statements such as “Filner received 64% of the undecided/other votes, with the remainder going to Fletcher” are completely meaningless. Just saying.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.