Is Nathan Fletcher in or out for Mayor? This is the question it seems everyone is asking downtown, and the view is growing (downtown) that Fletcher may not take the risk. But over and over again, Fletcher insists that in fact he is running. He’s told numerous people that he will declare for the Mayor’s race in March. According to my calendar March has 31 days, and today is the 29th.
The question Fletcher must be asking himself: can he make it to the run-off? Currently Congressman Bob Filner, Councilman Carl DeMaio, and DA Bonnie Dumanis have declared for the seat. State Senator Kehoe, Councilman Kevin Faulconer, and/or Steve Francis may run. Given this line up, and the fact that the election is more than a year away, I’d argue that Fletcher is still in the game. Why? (1) Fletcher is a Marine veteran in a military city; (2) Fletcher will presumably have serious resources; (3) Fletcher is an energetic campaigner – youthful and attractive generally. Of the three I think #2 is particularly important.
Comments 19
I think Fletcher is in for the following reasons:
1. He would be termed out of the Assembly in 2014 probably without an open seat to run for in the State Senate.
2. He is certain to be in the minority if he stays in the Assembly limiting what he can accomplish.
3. His profile would probably be elevated more by a Mayoral run (even unsuccessful) than another two years in the Assembly.
4. Most importantly, he has a young son and probably wants to be able to spend more time with him rather than time in Sacramento.
I also believe that he will beat any of the other candidates IF he gets to the run-off.
Criticus
#2 is important. Why do you think he will have serious resources?
Nathan has spent too long preparing to run to back out now in my opinion. He’s lined up some good downtown support and is a strong campaigner. I think if his rationale is that by running for Mayor he’ll get to spend more time with his son, he’s in for a rude awakening.
Bill,
You may be right about how much free time Mayor Fletcher would have vs. Assemblyman Fletcher, but just being able to go to bed and wake up in the same house as your child is a very big deal.
He has little to lose.
Alger is dead on with his last point. Of all the people over the years telling me how (fill in the name of the state legislator) has done the travel routine without an impact on his/her child/family situation, hardly any of them have actually talked in depth with any legislator about the reality.
“Rather a day as a lion than a thousand years as a sheep” — go Fletcher. The only people who are shivering in their boots are the same Dumanis downtown insiders who were with Fletcher, before they were against him.
Fletcher outspends DeMaio and Dumanis combined. There are some big money donors who see him as the future of the GOP in the state.
We’ll Fletcher has told anyone who will listen that he’s declaring in March. One more day, right? I don’t think he pulls the trigger.
Instead of seeing this as evidence of wavering, Fletcher’s waiting might simply mean he has the discipline to roll out his campaign on a timeline that he and his people have thought through.
It says a lot that instead of being reactive to Bonnie’s announcement, he’s quietly planning. Bob “Blurt It Out at Random” Filner could learn something from his opponents.
I doubt Filner “blurted it out” unless he wanted to. He knew what he was doing.
Prediction
Criticus said the same, #2 is important. So I will ask you the same, why do you think he will have big money donors?
RL
When Filner announces it should have a way of clearing the field. Ask Juan Vargas.
Fletcher might do well to look at County Supervisor. With his strong popularity in Slater’s district, he could very well win that election. County Sup pays FAR more than SD Mayor ($143K vs. $100K) and requires little work once elected (it’s a part-time admin job).
When he is termed out of County Sup office, then he’d have a good shot at SD mayor (same election), or Congress.
This Late-Breaking Bulletin just handed to me on
“Big Money Donors” in S.D. Mayoral races.
The maximum legal campaign donation is $250.
It has been that way since 1973. Further bulletins
as they break.
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(Rostra’s comment number 4,998 – Editor)
Jim,
Actually it is $500 from an individual, $1,000 from a couple for the Primary and General. I believe political parties can give unlimited amounts due to a recent court ruling.
Thor,
If this is the 5,000th comment, please hold it until someone else comments. It wouldn’t be right for someone left-of-center to win that honor.
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(Rostra’s comment number 5,001 – Even Alger could have won this contest, but just missed. – Editor)
I have just received undeniable proof that Fletcher is in. An email just came in announcing that he will be attending the upcoming Albondigas lunch in Old Town. It’s out of his district, it’s outside of “working hours” and it’s time he could be spending with Mindy and the baby. He must be in. 🙂
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(Rostra’s comment number 5,002 – This one was a good one. Too bad. – Editor)
Not that it means much, but he transferred $20,000 to this 2012 assembly campaign this quarter, including a few thou two days ago
http://cal-access.sos.ca.gov/PDFGen/pdfgen.prg?filingid=1584590&amendid=0
Many readers will know that it doesn’t mean much, but in case anyone concludes that the transfer means Fletcher must not be going for Mayor, it has no bearing whatsoever. Without getting into all the details, Fletcher is legally limited from transferring monies to a campaign account for a city office. Also, a 2010 state legislative committee can only remain open and funds spent for the purpose of paying off debt. The funds must be transferred to a 2012 committee.