H/T to the prescient John Dadian for posting this graphic of poll results to his Facebook page, which he notes was conducted 9/23-9/27 (as in today). Click for a readable image…
But, strange that SurveyUSA doesn’t at this writing seem to have it or any detail on it’s website. When they do, we’ll let you know.
4:13 pm update... The detail at SurveyUSA.
Comments 31
Author
Uhhh, we’ve also asked Mr. Dadian for a link to something more substantial. (It is now updated above.)
San Diego Republicans’ News Release: “San Diego Mayoral Poll Shows A Majority Back Republican Ideas” http://eepurl.com/f55UX
The poll’s summary doesn’t make sense. It says Fletcher is strong among Tea Party members, but according to the numbers, DeMaio gets much more. Of all Tea Party members, 33 percent support DeMaio compared to just 19 percent for Fletcher. That’s not much higher than the 16 percent of Tea Party members who support Filner.
Author
We think the point of the Fletcher statement is this, although it could have been clearer: Fletcher doesn’t show the Tea Party backing DeMaio does, and only slightly more than Filner, but considering his overall percentage is 10% compared to 25% for the other two, his Tea Party backing is proportionately high.
Thanks to Tony Krvaric and John Dadian for allowing
Rostrafarians to be among the first to know about this
story
Yes, I can see it that way. But it’s misleading, because Fletcher has less than half the support that DeMaio does.So it’s not an apples-to-apples comparison. IMO, such comparisons are only meaningful among candidates with approximately the same level of support.
As a thought experiment, consider someone with 5 percent overall support. If 80 percent of that 5 percent, or 4 percent, were Tea Party members, that person would be even “stronger:” among the Tea Party than Fletcher. But it wouldn’t mean anything, as the great majority of Tea Party members would be supporting other candidates.
Author
Bradley: We concur.
Author
From a reader on Twitter…
“16% of tea party 4 Filner?! 15% of Dems 4 DeMaio!? I’m convinced either the poll or the voters are wrong.”
Our series of brief Tweeted responses…
This early, polling can reflect that; voters don’t yet know candidates’ positions as much as their names.
Example: City voters may know Filner’s name alone, but not his politics, as he doesn’t now represent them.
Lastly, they have “self identified” as Tea Party, not necessarily activists who closely watch politics.
Chris Reed tonight gave a good reason for distrusting the breakdowns of support for specific candidates — the numbers are too small. That’s especially true for Fletcher, with just 10 percent of the total, or 59 supporters.
Fletcher has attractive qualities, such as the ability to reach across party lines to get things done. So it’s not surprising that high-tech and biotech executives would like him. These executives are pragmatic and know they have to work with both parties. I’ve seen this from personal experience covering those industries in San Diego for two decades.
But Fletcher is not a fiscally conservative purist, a quality Tea Party members look for and which Carl DeMaio most strongly embodies.
I’m also puzzled by Filner’s Tea Party support, which is even greater than Fletcher’s. That could be another error, or it could mean the Tea Party has a significant number of Democratic members. One of the Tea Party leaders in San Diego County, Leslie Eastman, is a Democrat.
Author
Or it could mean what we referenced above… those who identify with the Tea Party in a poll may not be knowledgeable activists…they may simply be fed up. That feeling crosses partisan lines in some respects. But, that also doesn’t mean they know anything about Filner at this point in time, other than based on name ID.
Please help Dumanis quit the race, so we can concentrate on the Mayoral candidates’ messages.
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Not-Dumanis-San-Diego-Citizens-Against-Bonnie-Dumanis-for-Mayor-in-2012/129674723757629
Please join the Facebook page: Not Dumanis – San Diego Citizens Against Bonnie Dumanis for Mayor in 2012.
Not to be Debbie Downer here (maybe that should be my new handle), but this poll worries me a little bit. Krvaric is crazy if he thinks all 16% of Dumanis supporters are going to break for whichever Republican makes it through the runoff. If I had to make a bet, I would wager that Dumanis’ support has eroded to the point of being down to folks that are more likely to break for Filner in the run-off. Assuming undecideds and others break about evenly, Filner has to be happy with where he is this far out.
Krvaric has materially aided the victories of dozens of
Republican candidates for local offices in just the past
few years. That adds considerable credibility to his
opinions.
Those wins include Lori Zapf and Jan Goldsmith for
SD City positions.
I think it not surprising that Downtown interests still have the two candidates (Dumanis and Fletcher) afloat. Win-win for them. One faux candidate drops out and the other picks up the majority of that support. That support is the “we can all work together” non-partisan support to maintain the status quo.
Filner among other things voted against TARP because he regarded it as a Wall Street bailout. That sets well with Tea Party advocates who are not necessarily Rep/Dem stalwarts but who still have those registrations.
DeMaio has been the man driving the issues and to the degree he continues he is the man to beat.
I think it is WAY too early to think this means much. People are focused a LOT more on Antonio Gates foot and the Mayor’s race – and that is doubly true from trying to read tea leaves int the cross tabs/internals.
So here are some random thoughts that don’t require a ton of reach into the differences measured in single digit differences h (and actually are pretty obvious so not grand thoughts here)
A) Nathan isn’t known. I think a lot of the pundit class (and rostarians) know a lot about NF but most San Diegans do not. Remember – your average voter is pretty darn ignorant. That is a a surprise because I think a lot of us thought with the wall-to-wall coverage of C. King’s murder Nathan would get a bounce in name ID from Chelsea’s law. He did not. Memo to Nathan – Learn the number for KOGO’s advertising department and get on the air.
B) Bonnie is not Jerry. Jerry Sanders was never well known when just refereed to as Jerry Sanders. When polled as “Former Police Chief Jerry Sanders” he really popped. Worth perhaps as much as 10-15%. Bonnie doesn’t get that – or maybe that is ALL she gets. Long road ahead (unless she makes a quick exit). Memo to Bonnie – take another look at the pay cut you would take and really ask yourself – is being the darling of the Downtown Rotary worth getting creamed in an election?
C) Bob Filner is going to under perform other dems. He should be well into the 40s based on being a long-standing Congressman and with the City’s ideological lean. The combination of “bob being bob”, his left of San Diego ideology and heck, the fact that 40 years later he STILL sounds like a new yorker is going to be a challenge. Memo to Bob – Learn to Surf or at least marry one 😉 I know, Bob in a swimsuit is a TERRIFYING thought but honestly – he needs to show some authenticity as a San Diegan.
D) Carl – Comparing the two polls suggest that voters are starting to tune into the fact that Carl is a fiscal conservative. Notice his splits DvR; Old vs. Young; Conservative v. Liberal.
But that brings up Carl’s biggest challenge – assuming #1 or #2 how does he pivot on 4 -6 years of history and find ways of appealing to a city electorate that is left of center? Bob vs. Carl is going to be a battle over which candidate seems LESS offensive to the squishy center of San Diego politics. Memo to Carl: Find an evil developer to vilify. San Diegans love that 😉
Filner among other things voted against TARP because he regarded it as a Wall Street bailout. That sets well with Tea Party advocates who are not necessarily Rep/Dem stalwarts but who still have those registrations.
It certainly sets well with me. Good for Filner.
Yes, it’s early for it to mean anything other than what it is…a benchmark and a gut check. Which, to some may be important…including the candidates. On the last poll posted, a commenter noted he didn’t believe the results, considering how much money two of the candidates had raised, for one of them to be showing lower numbers. Wow, I never realized the candidates spend that money as soon as it is in the bank. LOL.
Brad – you would have LOVED a banking collapse? Wonder what would have happened to consumer confidence if BofA (which holds about 1 in 8 deposits by $ in the US) had gone under? TARP sucked eggs but the alternative was much much worse. Just watch tommorrow what happens with an old fasioned bank run if Germany fails to pass the Greek Bailout.
To many people love kicking the can down the road hoping things will not go belly up on their watch. How long will it be? Will the government checks begin to bounce on your watch?
Erik and Barry – I think you hit the collective nail on the head. Polls this early are really just a benchmark based on name recognition and general voter sentiment.
Comparing these results with the Brown and Bailey poll released a couple weeks ago gives some food for thought. There seemed to be a general consensus that excluding an “undecided” option as Brown and Bailey did inevitably benefits candidates with the greatest name id and I think this poll adds credence to that notion. Carl is very visible and has attached himself to a popular initiative which is probably enough for most voters that would otherwise be undecided to select Carl in a poll when the undecided option is not provided. All of the candidates polled at very similar numbers a couple weeks back with the exception of Carl indicating that a large chunk of his support is undecided at this point.
I also agree that Nathan is not as well known in the community as the other candidates which will bode well for him when he starts campaigning. For that reason I think his ceiling for additional support is higher than Bonnie’s simply because Bonnie enjoys better name id but is struggling to break into the 20’s.
Erik – you fell for that scare story about TARP? I didn’t.
Bradley,
I am glad we also never fell for that scare story about Lehman Brothers or the one that said the stock market would lose more than half of its value. Some people are so gullible.
I think it pretty clear from the stress tests that BofA was particularly troubled. Guess what, the market thinks they still are.
@Richard Bailey
So you think this poll bodes well for Fletcher as he has an opportunity to define himself when he starts spending money? I’m assuming you also mean that the other candidates are already defined, for better or worse. Interesting.
Erik,
So the government “solution” of hiding the banks’ problems behind a wall of opacity, and spending hundreds of billions of dollars of taxpayer money hasn’t worked, I’d say that’s a clear indication the bail-out was wrong in the first place.
If the government had refused the bail-out, the banks would have either cleared up their balance sheets or be taken over by new owners by now. But as usual, the government ignores reality in favor of perceptions and gimmicks. This began under Bush and continues under Obama,
BoA became more troubled after the government forced them to buy Countrywide.
@ Chevy Sam –
Its not that low poll results bode well for Fletcher or anyone for that matter but rather that he still has the opportunity, as you mention, to define himself for the people that are undecided versus Bonnie Dumanis who is better known/ defined and yet not polling very well.
Author
@Richard… A question has been posed to you on the blog post about the Brown and Bailey mayoral poll.
Our bailouts of our country’s rich and big has set a precedent that leads us down the European path to — well, wherever the hell they are going. As we have seen, too often the bailouts forestall solutions, at considerable, unsustainable expense.
Europe will keep doing the bailouts until too late — wait, it’s ALREADY too late. For them, at least.
NO ONE wants to face the fact that just about EVERY first and second world country operates intergenerational income transfer schemes — often called (correctly) Ponzi or pyramid schemes.
Outright banking collapses are decidedly “not fun”. If you hate big government you would REALLY have hated an unplanned and chaotic, FDIC-administered “recovery” from the insured BofA deposits – along with the resulting CRASH in consumer confidence when the bank holding 1/8th of all US Deposits goes belly up. Happy days are here again.
We can be all very mad about BHO and work for change in 2012 but a collapse of our major banks in 2008/09 would have been catastrophic.
I also think it is unclear we have “hidden their problems”. We recapitalized them and let them “get away” with how they have or have not written down their failing assets.
There were NO good choices in the TARP fiasco. Can’t undo what had been done (allowing banks to get so big they couldn’t be allowed to fail). Very frustrating to the core that the crooks that got us into this mess are still vacationing in East Egg and doing just wonderful. But that is the nature of the modern banking system and our choice to make “finance” a big chunk of the growth in our economy. You want boring banks, you don’t get millions of jobs at the Banks.
Regarding Nathan – Ergo why he should be “soon” introducing himself to voters in “cheap” medium like radio.