From 10News…
SAN DIEGO – In an election for U.S. House of Representatives from California’s 52nd Congressional District, Republican challenger Carl DeMaio has a narrow advantage over 1st-term incumbent Democrat Scott Peters, according to a 10News/U-T San Diego poll conducted by SurveyUSA.
DeMaio 51%, Peters 44%. That’s the headline at this hour, 6 months till votes are counted, pointing to a possible Republican takeaway of this congressional seat.
Comments 8
Of course, this is a LONNGGG way from the finish line, but it certainly bodes well for the DeMaio effort. I think we can count on an unprecedented smear campaign against Carl, funded by the labor unions.
But what I find encouraging is the fact that most people KNOW who DeMaio and Peters are — for better or for worse. There aren’t many “undecided” at this point, which I suspect is unusual at this stage in a race. Hence it seems to me that the coming avalanche of campaign spending by both sides will have less effect than if the two candidates were relative unknowns.
Survey USA, that’s reliable and accurate….
Good point, Dawn. Survey USA does a substandard job of selecting “likely voters.”
That means that a significant percentage of the people the firm surveyed likely won’t vote. Given that the less frequent voters tend to favor Democrats, that should result in the November outcome being even stronger for DeMaio.
But, as I said, we are a LONG way from November.
Richard – I agree we are a long way off and this poll is nothing more than fundraising fodder for both sides. I just wish we would stop using SurveyUSA for any type of insight. They are so wrong, so often! The fact that you took their polling and immediately adjusted for how its most often wrong, is a good indicator. Rep or Dem, Tea Party or Communist Party, stop giving SurveyUSA credibility.
Dawn, it’s not a “push poll.” It just not a top flight poll. It was not paid for by the DeMaio folks. And the outcome is not different from what we would have expected, based on recent history.
We have a previous poll that tells us a lot about DeMaio’s prospects — the 2012 “poll’ for Mayor. In spite of losing the mayoral race, In the area of San Diego that constitutes most of the 52nd district, DeMaio beat Filner. 58%-42%. That’s a pretty convincing margin — and an excellent indicator of his prospects this November when many fewer will vote (a plus for Republicans).
Author
Polling is fodder. Rostra is a place for such fodder. There has been lots of discussion on Rostra about the efficacy and methodology of certain polling. We expect there will continue to be. But we won’t stay away from publishing poll results, like them or not. We expect most of our readers understand polling for what it is, as well as differences such as likely voters vs. all voters, and live calls vs. auto responses. But, if anyone is fearful that readers will be influenced by questionable survey numbers, please feel free to call into question the results.
Oh, you did.
Kind of the point. That’s exactly the point of this blog.
here’s the perspective of a leftwinger: in a race between two Republicans, the one who’s willing to admit it will, in most cases, win. In this instance that would be Carl. So from this indigo blue Democrat, thank you Carl for taking out the fraud that is Scott Peters.
I took a poll at the La Jolla VA. VETS dont like a Non Vet bashing an
Army POW. Jumping on the lynch mob hysteria of that creep Sean Hanratty. Army vets at the La Jolla VA dont like Jarheads of Duncan Hunters stature jumping on the Rat Packing of Bergdahl.