Next August the voter-approved ‘Cititzens Redistricting Commission’ will release newly-drawn maps for all state Senate, Assembly and Congressional districts. This is your Distant Early Warning that senate seat 39 [Kehoe, term-limited] will likely see the biggest changes in San Diego county, and they are certain to make it competitive for Republicans again.
The next GOP senator from the 39th may be living in Poway, Rancho Bernardo, San Carlos, Tierrasanta, Scripps Ranch, Penasquitos, Del Cerro or Encinitas….. none of which are now in the 39th district ! …… So if you know a good GOP candidate in those places, let ’em know NOW…their ship may be about to come in, if they are there to board it! If Rostra readers have candidate ideas, but don’t want to post them here, you can write me directly at: YourElectionVictory@hotmail.com
……….WHAT’S DRIVING THIS……….POPULATION TRENDS
The Census bureau won’t release detailed local counts for another 2 months, but the movement of San Diego county’s population to the North and East has been going on for 40 years now. That continuing movement will take District 39 in those two directions.
And a 2nd factor is in play: the 2001 gerrymander of legislative lines by the Sacramento Clowns turned the neighboring 40th district (Juan Vargas) into a geographical nightmare. It weaves through southern SD county like a Darren Sproles touchdown run. The 40th then goes east to Imperial county, and finally grabs part of Riverside county as well! The voter initiatives establishing the state Citizens Redistricting Commission specifically tells them to end these community-splitting maneuvers. That means big Trouble for Dems in SD 39!
……….2-WAY STRETCH HITS DEMOCRATS AT BOTH ENDS
(1) Senate District 39 will lose heavily-Democratic areas on its southern flank to Juan Vargas’ 40th district, to compensate for population he loses when (inevitably) the Riverside spur is taken from his political foot. He will need to gain population regardless.
(2) Meanwhile, to the North and East, Senate seat 39 will add strongly Republican areas, like San Carlos, Tierrasanta, Del Cerro, Scripps Ranch and Rancho Bernardo in the City of San Diego alone. Some or all may be in the 39th by August… (Several of those neighborhoods were in the 39th for many decades past, but were banished by King Gerrymander to protect Democratic incumbents).
The past 2 Republican senators here came from Del Cerro (Jim Ellis) and Tierrasanta (Larry Stirling), both in council District 7. Outside San Diego City, the fine communities of Poway, Encinitas and Solana Beach may also join SD 39, since neighboring SD 38, in booming North County, will have to shed some territory to reach the required population equality.
……….THE FIELD TO DATE … 3 DEMOCRATS, NO REPUBLICANS YET
Three Democrats are more-or-less in the field as Chris Kehoe’s final terms ends. They are all current or ex-Assembly members Toni Atkins (76th AD now), Lori Saldana (76th AD, 2004-10) and Howard Wayne (AD 78, 1996-2002). Wayne and Saldana have already disclosed formation of campaign committees to the Secretary of State, and Atkins is expected to follow.
Based on its gerrymandered past reputation, no Republican has so far formed a committee here… but as we have shown today, the new District 39 for election year 2012 will have a sleek new design, and will definitely NOT be your Grandmother’s Oldsmobile!
So, in conclusion, SD Rostra asks this relevant question about our profile of the soon-to-be-updated 39th District: Who wants to be a State Senator?… Will it be you… or you… or possibly even YOU!
I wonder if Barry will chair my exploratory committee???
Roger that, Roger. You are cleared for Take-off !
Thanks. I think. GREAT analysis, Jim.
PROMISE, I am not trying to tear you way from home
and hearth. You have done your time on that front!
But few know the Territory and the Leaders as you
do. If anyone knows the men and women who might
fill this vital post for the GOP in 2012, it is you.
Glad you liked the article.
This is good to hear. I will definitely follow this as it plays out, and will let my neighbors in the hood (Del Cerro) know. There’s bound to be some great candidates in DC/San Carlos.
My only question is, what does a Darren Sproles touchdown look like? 🙂
Glad to hear DC/San Carlos is ready to roll ! You were
in District 39 for decades, and should be back there in
a few months.
Here is San Diego Chargers star Darren Sproles most-
famous touchdown run….winning a playoff game at San
Diego-Jack Murphy Stadium, against the Colts, in a
Thanks for the memories….I was at that game. Next year! (The two most repeated words of us Chargers fans.)
Don’t worry about Barry. I’ll make him my secret Chief of Staff so he can stay in the fun. He would have been my COS if I had won in 1990!!!
Impressive work !
It is more reason for Rep optmism in 2012.