Shhhhh! — Republicans can win a Redrawn 39th senate seat…. Attn: Poway Roger, D7 Voter, Barry Jantz.. Act now, Pilgrims!

Next August the voter-approved  ‘Cititzens Redistricting Commission’ will release  newly-drawn maps for all state Senate, Assembly and Congressional districts.  This is your Distant Early Warning that senate seat 39  [Kehoe, term-limited]  will likely see the biggest changes in San Diego county,  and they are certain to make it competitive for Republicans again.

The next GOP senator from the 39th may be living in Poway, Rancho Bernardo, San Carlos, Tierrasanta, Scripps Ranch, Penasquitos, Del Cerro or Encinitas….. none of which are now in the 39th district ! …… So if you know a good GOP candidate in those places, let ’em know NOW…their ship may be about to come in, if they are there to board it!  If Rostra readers have candidate ideas, but don’t want to post them here, you can write me directly at:  YourElectionVictory@hotmail.com

……….WHAT’S DRIVING THIS……….POPULATION TRENDS

The Census bureau won’t release detailed local  counts for another 2 months, but the movement of San Diego county’s  population to the North and East has been going on for 40 years now. That continuing movement will take District 39 in those two directions.

And a 2nd factor is in play:  the 2001 gerrymander of legislative lines by the  Sacramento Clowns turned the neighboring 40th district (Juan Vargas) into a geographical nightmare.  It weaves through southern SD county like a Darren Sproles touchdown run.  The 40th then goes east to Imperial county, and finally grabs  part of Riverside county as well!   The voter initiatives establishing the state Citizens Redistricting Commission specifically  tells them to end these community-splitting maneuvers. That means big Trouble for Dems in SD 39!

……….2-WAY  STRETCH HITS DEMOCRATS AT BOTH ENDS

(1) Senate District 39 will  lose heavily-Democratic areas on its southern flank to Juan Vargas’ 40th district,  to compensate for population he loses when (inevitably)  the Riverside spur is taken from his political foot.  He will need to gain population regardless.

(2)  Meanwhile, to the North and East, Senate seat 39 will  add strongly Republican areas, like San Carlos, Tierrasanta, Del Cerro, Scripps Ranch and Rancho Bernardo in the City of San Diego alone.  Some or all may be in the 39th by August… (Several of those neighborhoods were in the 39th for many decades past, but were banished by King Gerrymander to protect  Democratic  incumbents).

The past 2 Republican senators here  came from Del Cerro (Jim Ellis) and Tierrasanta (Larry Stirling), both  in council District 7. Outside San Diego City, the fine communities of Poway, Encinitas and Solana Beach may also join SD 39, since neighboring SD 38, in booming North County, will have to shed some territory to reach the required population equality.

……….THE FIELD TO DATE … 3  DEMOCRATS, NO REPUBLICANS YET

Three Democrats are more-or-less in the field as Chris Kehoe’s final terms ends.  They are all current or ex-Assembly members Toni Atkins (76th AD now), Lori Saldana (76th AD, 2004-10) and Howard Wayne (AD 78,  1996-2002).  Wayne and Saldana have already disclosed formation of campaign committees to the Secretary of State,  and Atkins is expected to follow.

Based on its gerrymandered past  reputation, no Republican has so far  formed a committee here… but as we have shown today, the new District 39  for election year 2012 will have a sleek new design, and will definitely NOT be your Grandmother’s  Oldsmobile!

So, in conclusion,  SD Rostra asks this relevant question about our profile of the soon-to-be-updated 39th District:  Who wants to be a State Senator?… Will it be you… or you… or possibly even YOU!

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