San Diego Republican Candidates Need to Watch OC 3rd Supe Special Election

Brian Brady Undesignated 4 Comments


Orange County voters hit the polls yesterday to select Todd Spitzer’s replacement for the Third District of the Orange County Board of Supervisors. Spitzer vacated the seat when he won the Orange County District Attorney race last November.

Lone Democratic candidate and former 10-term member of Congress Loretta Sanchez faced off against six Republican candidates in a “winner-take-all” election. OCGOP-endorsed candidate Don Wagner holds a 3,000 vote lead over Sanchez after the election night results were posted. That seems like a lock in a low-turnout election in a mostly Republican county; Sanchez would have to win > 60% of the remaining votes. BUT…

and this is a huge BUT…

Democrats dominated last November through a new but legal election tactic; ballot harvesting. Assemblyowman Lorena Gonzalez-Fletcher (D-SD) sponsored and passed legislation which allows mail voters to give their ballot to anyone rather than mailing the ballot in. Last November, early leads evaporated after the mail-in ballots, harvested by Democratic campaigns and “dropped” on Election Day, were counted.

If Loretta Sanchez wins this special election, Democrats are sitting on a “silver bullet” which could win them the last Congressional seat in San Diego County, flip the balance of power on the San Diego Board of Supervisors, win two more San Diego City Council races, elect a Democratic mayor of San Diego, and pick up their 6th out of 7 Assembly seats.

San Diego Republicans are woefully unprepared to combat this tactic. Nobody recognized it in the last election and Republican volunteers have been abandoning support for the local party for a decade. I pointed this out six years ago and soon after that when the County registration advnatage flipped. At the end of 2014, I offered a plan to reform the Republican Party of San Diego. RPSDC leadership rejected those reforms to double down on the strategy of direct mail .

The Republican Party of San Diego County has produced dismal results in the past decade. It’s highwater mark was the defeat of Jerry Sanders sales tax initiative in 2010. Since then, it lost the San Diego Mayor’s Office (and regained it in a special election), has no candidate for San Diego Mayor in 2020, handed Democrats a super majority on the City Council, lost two out of five Congressional seats, lost two out of seven Assembly seats. lost a County Supervisor seat, and lost and a number of municipal Mayor elections.

2020 San Diego Republican candidates need to watch the OC 3rd Supervisor special election results. If Sanchez substantially narrows this lead or wins the election, our candidates are going to have to reshift their focus from direct mail to heavily recruiting volunteer precinct captains.

RPSDC won’t give you the door-to-door volunteers you so desperately need. It alienated them when it ran Sherman and Consiglio off in 2008. Our local party is designing mail pieces and Democratic volunteers are collecting voters’ ballots before those mail pieces are even read. The game has changed and Republicans are getting outhustled. Watch the OC 3rd Supe election results— our future depends upon it.


Comments 4

  1. I agree. I am Richard M Hansen. I am running for Mayor City of San Diego 2020 as an Anti-Socialist. The Democrats already lost, they just don’t know it yet. The Democrats support Socialism, Anti-Semitism, the Green New Pipe Dream, Open Borders, Infanticide, Fake News, No Jobs, No God, and the Nanny State. The Socialists don’t believe in God because the state is God. They don’t believe in the rule of law as they are trying to overturn a duly elected President, thereby committing the largest Voter Fraud in US history. They Hate America and the Constitution.

    Stalin Murdered at least 20 Million Souls and now The Red Menace is back! The Socialists want to change our Country from the USA to the USSR, Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. The Socialists accuse the President of colluding with the Russians. They are just projecting their evil on the President. Putin and 2/3 of Russians want to go back to the days of the Soviet Union and The Red Menace. This is the Real Russian Collusion, Putin and the Democrats want the EXACT same thing, a Socialist Country. The President put it very succinctly when he said “America will NEVER be a Socialist Country.”

    The San Diego Republicans are afraid of the Socialists. I’m NOT. The San Diego Republicans and Independents have nowhere to go. I am registered NPP. The Republicans have 25% of the voters and NPP makes up another 25% of the voters with the Dems at 44% of voters. The Republicans and NPP together are 50% of the registered voters. A month ago I was running as a protest vote against the Powers that Be, but thanks to the President I believe for me running as an Anti-Socialist is a winning hand. A vote for Richard M Hansen is a vote to Stop The Red Menace. God Bless America!

  2. Richard, your website has no bio or general information about you. We can see you’re a father; please provide more details on your background.

  3. I’d like to provide an update. Don Wagner won with 42% of the vote to Loretta Sanchez’s 37.1% and a margin of 3,518 votes. His lead actually increased from election night. It’s good news that he won and that the combined Republican share of the vote was almost 63% despite the Democrats ground game and the hundreds of thousands of dollars Orange County public sector unions poured into it.

    On the other hand I don’t think it’s necessarily a good sign that a non local Democrat candidate received that high a share of the vote. Also while the voting harvest did not work in this election a gubernatorial and certainly presidential elections are a different story with the high percentage number of uninformed voters who vote. There’s no reason not to expect a repeat of what happened last November to happen again, even more so with it being a presidential election.

    Your statements from six years ago were spot on t hen and more so now and the fact that nothing has changed shows why California Republicans are int he position they’re in now. The party flat out got out hustled last November and when you have county parties, local organizations that think can’t even be bothered to endorse local candidates for municipal elections or even put the names of Republicans candidates on their website for local elections and still have last Novembers endorsements up shows that they still haven’t got the message and think all they need is a facebook page to inform voters and win shows that the people in charge still have not gotten the message.

    Don Wagner winning was good but doesn’t alleviate the problems in the party. A Sanchez win would have been devastating but celebrating this victory is like a team celebrating a win after a 10 game losing streak and still being 10 games back.

  4. I agree with ‘The Marshall Plan’s comments.
    a couple of months before the primary in 2018, I gave my precinct ideas to one of the San Diego Republican org leaders. I learned my ideas would not be accepted as they would continue operating the precincts the same way they always have. Based on the results of the November election, I think the leaders finally are starting to realize their strategy does not work. Ya think?
    Although I still have my doubts on whether the Republican party really want to win back California with the original core values Republicans used to talk about.

    During one of my Republican precinct walks, one voter told me ”Hey!
    I don’t see you guys for 2 years, then before each election, you come knocking on my door asking for my vote again? Geez. Maybe you get my vote, maybe you don’t.” He was one of the disenfranchised, disillusioned voters the ‘R’ party forgot about. Tony Krvaric told us at the Eagle Forum meeting (11/24/18) that 2 million registered Republicans did not vote. Ya think? Also on MSBC last week, I learned that a majority of the 18-25 age group does not think that Socialism is a bad thing.

    The only way that Republican volunteers will get involved again is if they are shown the bigger picture – the why. Right now, I believe that all they are taught is what and how to do something, not why. There are 5 major threats to our constitution and if we do not get off our butts and start organizing all the precincts with street captains, we may just have to wave goodbye in Nov 2020 to our republic. To find out the 5 worst threats to our republic, read this white paper just published by The North American Law Center

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