San Diego County Ballot Returns (E-18 Days)

Mason Herron Undesignated Leave a Comment

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As of October 21, 2016 at 5:00pm, 113,004 ballots have been mailed to registered voters throughout the county. 113,004 voters have voted (either by returning their ballot, or through early voting).

This equates to an overall voting rate of 11.44% among all ballots mailed.

Breaking down the ballots by party, total returns are comprised of 35.07% Republicans (3.61% above registration), 41.90% Democrats (4.95% above registration), and 23.04% independent (8.56% below registration).

oct21
(Click to enlarge)

I want to take a moment to note that Paul Mitchell from PDI made an interesting observation regarding how VBM voting has changed since 2012. The graph below shows that while GOP participation has essentially hit a ceiling, the growth among Democrats has been high, which may (partly) explain why they’re doing relatively well in VBMs.

screen-shot-2016-10-21-at-3-58-01-pm

Here is an overview of how AV returns have come in, relative to registration. These are the final totals for these elections.

2014 General 2012 General 2010 General
Dem Rep Other Dem Rep Other Dem Rep Other
AV Return 36% 42% 23% 36% 40% 28% 35% 44% 22%
Registration 35% 33% 33% 35% 34% 31% 35% 36% 29%
Difference 1% 9% -10% 1% 6% -3% 0% 8% -7%

More in-depth breakdowns: County of San Diego, City of San Diego, Supervisor District 3.

If you have questions on any of these breakdowns, or would like a breakdown on a specific jurisdiction not listed, please e-mail me at mpherron@gmail.com.

Note: These returns are based on data provided by the Registrar of Voters to Political Data Inc. Accordingly, there is likely a delay of at least 1-2 days relative to the actual number of ballots returned.

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