A new SurveyUSA poll reveals Councilmember Carl DeMaio has taken an early lead in the race for Mayor of San Diego.
In a poll that surveyed 538 registered city voters, DeMaio leads the growing pack of candidates with 22% of the vote. District Attorney Bonnie Dumanis, who announced her candidacy in March, comes in second place at 15%, and Democratic Congressman Bob Filner trails in third at 14%. State Assemblyman Nathan Fletcher (R), who announced his run for Mayor on Monday, polls in fifth place at 7% of the overall vote.
According to the poll, DeMaio commands the largest share of votes among Caucasians (26%) and Asian residents (21%). He’s also the favored candidate of Decline to State voters (28%), as well as those on the right. Among Republicans, conservatives and San Diegans who identify with the Tea Party, DeMaio dominates the vote at 33%, 31% and 44%, respectively. DeMaio is also the top vote-getter for San Diegans over 65 (28%).
Dumanis leads among female voters (21%), and Filner leads among African-Americans, Latinos, and voters under 35. State Senator Christine Kehoe, who is testing the waters for a future candidacy, leads among Democratic voters (21%).
My take: three must-watch voter segments for the June 2012 election are registered Republicans, voters over 65 years, and Caucasians. These high propensity voters have significant sway in the outcome of San Diego’s low turnout elections, like the June 2012 mayoral primary. All eyes should be on them in future polls.
SurveyUSA conducted the poll from June 6th-7th.