Here’s more of Michael Barone’s November 9th speech at the Uni-
versity of San Diego law school. His address is part of a lecture
series sponsored by community leader Joan E. Bowes (pictured).
(A) ‘OPEN FIELD’ VS. ‘TRENCH WARFARE’
Perhaps the most-original of Mr. Barone’s insights is that the Red State/
Blue State/Trench Warfare period of 1995 to 2007 is now OVER, and
public opinion is once again FLUID, and subject to persuasion.
“This is an Open Field era of Politics” Barone said, comparing it to the
prior period dominated by, “two armies of cultural warfare” for a decade.
Barone added the 2009 governor results show a “significant reversal of
opinion” and prove the end of Trench Warfare and “49% America”.
(B) ENTHUSIASM WINS ELECTIONS !
Barone traced the rise-and-fall of morale among rank-and-file activists.
In 2004, G.W. Bush won 23% more popular votes than in 2000, due
to high morale among his supporters. That spirit son evaporated, and
Democrats’ high hopes set the stage for victories in 2006 and 2008.
Barone pointed to high turnout by voters under 30 in 2008, and Obama’s
amazing 66% to 32% majority among them. This was the largest gap
EVER between young voters and the overall electorate. The author of
the Almanac of American Politics pointed to the collapse of this youth
turnout in 2009 as a Trend of major meaning. (It dropped roughly 2/3 in
just one year).
(C) INSTABILITY OF DEMS’, “TOP AND BOTTOM” COALITION.
Barone noted Obama’s coalition rested on the economic “Top & Bottom”,
that in 2008 his best support came from those making OVER $250K a
year, and voters making UNDER $50K. Barone says this creates inevi-
table weaknesses, and gave “Cap and Trade” as the best example.
John Q. Blue Collar sees Global Warming mania as a job killer, and
sure to raise costs of his coal and heating oil during the long Winter.
John Q. Leisure Time, however, will tend to back Cap & Trade, worry-
ing about those Polar Bears stuck on ice floes!
Obama must choose one of these options, and for now it looks like
the Polar Bears will trump the Blue Collars. But the Polar bears
cannot vote!
(D) WHERE BUSH LOST THE PUBLIC
Bush remained popular until “Hurricane Katrina changed things”, and
the public lost faith in government’s ability to handle a crisis. The Iraq
insurgency contributed, but Barone says the public will back a war ef-
fort, if they see it moving to a conclusion. The Surge moved opinion
again to “wary support”.
(E) MORE NEW JERSEY AND VIRGINIA
Barone was impressed that Chris Christie in NJ and Bob McDonnell in
VA both ran ahead of George Bush’s 2004 showing against John Kerry
(3% higher for Christie, and a 5% gain for McDonnell). Barone said this
reconfirms the lasting significane of the 2009 results.
* That’s Part 2 of my reportage on Michael Barone’s superb November
9th speech at the USD law school. And yes, there is enough left on my
note pad for a 3rd installment. Filet Mignon never gets old.