Six days to go in the Great primary Race between Juan Vargas and Mary Salas for the Democratic nomination in Senate District 40.
The Latest G-2, rumors and reliable sources reviewed by your correspondent suggest that Juan Vargas will upset Mary Salas in this heated contest.
For those just tuning in, incumbent Democrat Denise Ducheny is term-
limited from the seat. Competing for the party nod now are the current (Salas) and former (Vargas) 79th State Assembly members.
In writing about this race back in November, I mentioned Salas already had raised over $200,000, compared to just $10,000 for Juan Vargas. That was a 20-1 ratio.
But what a change since then! Through May 22nd, Vargas has cut the Salas lead to $407,000 (Salas) to $332,000 (Vargas).
Salas has a big edge in remaining cash-on-hand, but the equalizers for Vargas are major Independent expenditures by the Calif. Apartment Assn. PAC and the Civil Justice PAC. The former filed documents revealing upwards of $40K to do pro-Vargas mail and door-hangers in the final week. The Civil Justice PAC has been doing radio and their filings show another $30K buy for electronic media. Mary Salas’ vote on early release of State prisoners may be a recurring theme.
…………………….. POLLING
It is worth pointing out that the 40th Senate district includes all of Imperial County and much of Riverside. That means cities like Indio, El Centro, Palm Springs, Cathedral City and Calexico will be voting in this race too.
Juan Vargas has significant name ID and a volunteer base in some of those areas from his 2006 congressional primary bid vs. Rep. Bob Filner.
Polling suggests the race in the San Diego-based 79th Assembly district is about even, but Juan Vargas has a substantial lead in the Imperial and Riverside-based 80th Assembly district.
Those IE committees mentioned above are not spending this way for no reason: they believe Juan Vargas can win, and they can help elect a leader seen as a business-friendly Democrat.
That’s how it looks at this writing in Senate District 40. Juan Vargas is the probable winner as of today.
Comments 2
Jim: Kelly Davis from CityBeat tweeted her desire that we share the genesis of our polling info, both on this and San Diego CD 6 race (that was a Sunshine post). We did indicate to her that many of our bloggers are campaign insiders that have access to info that they may not be able to disclose further. This is alien to a good journalist, but of course Rostra is a mix of news, opinion and campaign material. Aside from that FYI, of course it is always your call on whether to provide any further details or substantiation. Thanks for some great insight on this race!