Is D1 Now Democratic?

Vince Vasquez Vince Vasquez 6 Comments

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Is the City of San Diego’s District One now firmly in the Democratic column?

I was rummaging through some of my old computer files this morning, and came across some interesting 2007 voter registration numbers from the City Clerk’s Office. Comparing them to the most recent voter reg report, which you can find online here, shows two important things: 1) Republicans have work to do with improving their voter numbers, and 2) A sea change may have occured which needs some further analysis.

First, the voter registration numbers from 2007:

2007voterreg

Since 2007,  the City of San Diego has seen its registered voter rolls increase by 47,611. Democrats increased their numbers by 33,442, Decline to States rose by 21,546, but the ranks of Republicans shrank by 7,769. Statistically, many of the new DTS and Dem voters are low-propensity voters, so it isn’t a comparative look at true party-to-party voter strength. However, does anyone have thoughts as to why the GOP is smaller today? I personally saw lots of grassroots party volunteers out registering voters at community events. Is it simply natural attrition (deaths, leaving the city) that hasn’t been replenished by a greater number of new party registrants?

What I found most curious was the registration trends in District One, which stretches from La Jolla to Rancho Penasquitos. Of all the registration growth that occured in the eight City Council districts, D1 was where 24.3% of it occured. That is huge. And look at the totals – at least as far back as I can remember, this is the first time that I’ve seen Democrats outnumber Republicans in the area. My question to you is: is this a permanent political shift? I heard a lot of theories about UCSD students somehow cranking out a ton of new registered voters for Obama, but I just don’t buy it. As a UCSD alum, I can attest to the apathy that pervades on campus, even during election season. Also, you didn’t see a similar Democrat surge in District 7 where SDSU is located, and where a tough fight took place between Marti Emerald and April Boling. The last Republican elected to represent District One was Harry Mathis in 1996 – will he be the last?

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Comments 6

  1. Hello Vince:

    Good to hear from a fellow Triton, with an excellent analysis !

    For a possible explanation of that “mysterious” surge in
    voter registrations, please see my post below about ACORN
    and their voter drive.

  2. I object to the erroneous use of the word “Democratic” when the political party is “DEMOCRAT”.

    It is not the “Democratic” party, it is the Democrat Party.

    We are all “democratic” after all for we are all Americans!

  3. Maybe we should object to poor use of the English language. Indeed, Republicans belong to the Republican Party. However, Democrats belong to the Democratic Party, like it or not. That is proper usage, like it or not, no matter how some — including many Republican officials — would like to change the word.

    If you change the word, it would be just as easy to say that the GOP should be called the Republic Party. Also incorrect.

    Now, if it’s democratic you prefer (small d), okay, but as Americans we live in a republic (small r). No, not a republican, a republic. A democratic republic, if you wish, but still a republic.

  4. The ‘surge’ if that’s what you want to call it, had nothing to do with Acorn but with the political tide of the past few years.

    As we all know, when unemployment rises, people vote Democrat. In high economic times, Americans vote to preserve their paycheck from socialistic spending.

    The surge is more in line with dissatisfaction with the CRP coupled with the national trend than Acorn. I WISH Acorn had that type of impact so it would be easier to put out of business.

    However, you can’t make people register Democrat if they don’t want to . Acorn focuses on poor and minority services…which are completely unrepresented in the Republican platform.

    That’s the reason for the surge.

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