Is the City of San Diego’s District One now firmly in the Democratic column?
I was rummaging through some of my old computer files this morning, and came across some interesting 2007 voter registration numbers from the City Clerk’s Office. Comparing them to the most recent voter reg report, which you can find online here, shows two important things: 1) Republicans have work to do with improving their voter numbers, and 2) A sea change may have occured which needs some further analysis.
First, the voter registration numbers from 2007:
Since 2007, the City of San Diego has seen its registered voter rolls increase by 47,611. Democrats increased their numbers by 33,442, Decline to States rose by 21,546, but the ranks of Republicans shrank by 7,769. Statistically, many of the new DTS and Dem voters are low-propensity voters, so it isn’t a comparative look at true party-to-party voter strength. However, does anyone have thoughts as to why the GOP is smaller today? I personally saw lots of grassroots party volunteers out registering voters at community events. Is it simply natural attrition (deaths, leaving the city) that hasn’t been replenished by a greater number of new party registrants?
What I found most curious was the registration trends in District One, which stretches from La Jolla to Rancho Penasquitos. Of all the registration growth that occured in the eight City Council districts, D1 was where 24.3% of it occured. That is huge. And look at the totals – at least as far back as I can remember, this is the first time that I’ve seen Democrats outnumber Republicans in the area. My question to you is: is this a permanent political shift? I heard a lot of theories about UCSD students somehow cranking out a ton of new registered voters for Obama, but I just don’t buy it. As a UCSD alum, I can attest to the apathy that pervades on campus, even during election season. Also, you didn’t see a similar Democrat surge in District 7 where SDSU is located, and where a tough fight took place between Marti Emerald and April Boling. The last Republican elected to represent District One was Harry Mathis in 1996 – will he be the last?