Update to the post below, for Tuesday evening (Nov 22):
Gaspar’s lead jumps to 659 votes…
Gaspar 107,893 50.15%
Roberts 107,234 49.85%
Gaspar received 51.5 percent of the 9,687 additional votes.
About 106,000 ballots remain to tally across the county.
Before today’s count, the Registrar estimated about 17,000 remaining provisional ballots in District 3. If that number is accurate, there would now be no more than about 7,300 remaining.
Roberts would have to be marked on nearly 54 percent of those ballots to pull even with Gaspar.
As in, not happening.
With the counts in the Kristin Gaspar vs. Dave Roberts Supervisor Donnybrook being tracked daily (see my original prediction and updates here), how’s the outcome now looking?
The bottom line is that challenger Gaspar has gone from getting 53.9 percent of the ballots counted on Friday, to 52.1 percent of the Saturday counts, 51 percent on Sunday, and 50.5 percent on Monday. Although increasing her lead during that time, the percentage each day has slipped.
This may very likely be due to the increased number of provisional ballots counted by the Registrar’s office as they finish with the mailed ballots (mailed ballots reflecting more conservative votes and provisional/polling place ballots less so).
The Registrar estimates about 17,000 ballots left in the District 3 contest, almost all provisionals.
If the percentage Gaspar gets on newly counted ballots continues to slip, Roberts would still need more than 51 percent of them to catch back up to her.
For instance, if Roberts were to get 51 percent of 17,000, that would be 8,670 to Gaspar’s 8,330 — or 340 votes more.
Gaspar leads by 368 now.
But, also take into account that 17,000 ballots in D3 does not necessarily equate to 17,000 votes. People do vote for president, for instance, while leaving down ballot races unmarked.
Is it possible for this race to turn again?
Today’s percentages will be very telling.