The Prop D numbers:
Definite No on Prop D: 52.6%
Definite Yes on Prop D: 18.3%
Undecided on Prop D: 29.1%
362 Likely Voters +/- 4.1%
Looks like a 2012 Mayoral run for DF is even more of an uphill battle now…
Frye’s Folly
The Prop D numbers:
Definite No on Prop D: 52.6%
Definite Yes on Prop D: 18.3%
Undecided on Prop D: 29.1%
362 Likely Voters +/- 4.1%
Looks like a 2012 Mayoral run for DF is even more of an uphill battle now…
Comments 15
It’s also Sanders’ folly. The mayor is just more sneaky in his tax-hiking advocacy.
Hey Sunshine – Could you please give us an idea of how the question was phrased?
For those just joining the fun….
“Sunshine” was the one who told us months ago that
the conventional wisdom was wrong — that Howard
Wayne was not headed to an easy 1st-place finish
in SD Council District 6, or a possible outright win.
Sunshine was proven right on primary night when
Wayne finished 12 points behind Zapf..
So these new numbers (On Prop. D) desrve some
credence.
Author
and to give them more cred I’ll elaborate that the large “undecided portion” includes the “leans” yes/no which were about 10 each, but all overall soft. The thing to take from this, about 1/3 of people are truly undecided about Prop D, but just over 1/2 are firmly against Prop D.
A simple defeat of Prop D is not enough. A resounding, crushing defeat is the only message that will create the leverage needed to get the City and public labor unions to the bargaining table and engaged in fruitful discussions about lasting reform and cost-savings, starting with retiree health benefits and continuing through managed competition, ending terminal leave and establishing a voluntary 401K program.
Author
The question, give or take, was…
If financial reforms are met, Prop D authorizes a temporary one-half cent sales tax. To help offset severe cuts and help restore essential services, including police, fire and street repair, shall the City of San Diego enact a temporary one-half cent sales tax for up to five years, only if the independent City Auditor certifies conditions have been met, including pension reforms and managed competition?
Gayle Falkenthal has left the firing line !
The wording of that question almost begs for a YES
vote. If the public is rejecting that formula by a 3-1
margin, then Prop. D is in a serious hole.
Careful… the YES on D people will have lots of money from labor unions. Take nothing for granted.
Sanders is such a disappointment. I’ve been to 2 forums now where Sanders literally LIES through his teeth about Prop D.
That’s kind of a tortured question, but thanks for filling that in.
For the record, I am a fan of Sunshine and I always find his insider polls helpful.
However, his Wayne-Zapf poll predicted Wayne would narrowly win, not Zapf. It was proven wrong, very wrong when Zapf won by a two-digit margin.
For the real record, Wayne and Zapf both “won,” or neither of them did…yet. The real final winner will be determined in November.
True nuff, Thors’ Asst.
Conventional wisdom before the primary was that
Howard Wayne would finish an easy first, and might
get 51% and be elected outright.
That was the view on election night of CHRIS CROTTY
a respected longtime local San Diego Democratic
consultant. Plenty of people agreed with him.
Sunshine’s poll in May 2010, showing a close Zapf-Wayne
race within the margin was a BOMBSHELL at the time.
Barry Jantz has often described how skeptical folks from
the MSM peppered him with questions on the poll’s validity
at the time.
Sunshine’s figures showed the Big Mo on Zapf’s side,
and anyone who does this for a living could see what
was coming.
This history is worth re-stating because it explains why
Sunshine’s numbers on Prop. D are worth careful
consideration.
The Libertarian Lass is right; even if these poll numbers are directionally accurate, we need to overwhelmingly defeat the sales tax increase this fall. A large defeat for D would clearly tell the RINO and his new Democrat allies that the cities financial problems cannot and should not be fixed at the expense of you and me.
They will be forced to either: continue limping along with a band aid approach or finally take strong action that fixes the true cost drivers of pension and healthcare costs.
Sills –
Sunshine’s poll numbers were worth careful consideration, absolutely, which is why I cited them in my story in the week before the race. Crotty has his opinion, but it’s not like we ignored Sunshine’s numbers….but Sunshine predicted the Wayne-Zapf race would be close….not that Zapf would have a huge lead.
Imagine it like this: If a Democrat had published the same numbers, you would be all over him for being so dead wrong.
As for peppering Jantz with questions: That’s the media’s job–to confirm, to whatever extent possible, the validity of a poll. It wasn’t mean with no disrespect to Sunshine or Jantz. We were doing the diligence.
I had no problems with the questions, by the way, and saw it as just that, diligence. Some did not like the fact that Sunshine would go up with numbers that could not be substantiated or credited to a polling firm, but that’s why this is a blog, and I pointed that out to those who did the “peppering.”
IMHO, a poll done that far out is not a prediction, as much as it is a mile marker. At 16 miles of a marathon, one could try to predict the outcome based on all the participants’ average mile times at that point, but it would not be taking into account stamina, possible injury, sprint ability, and a host of other factors.
What Sunshine’s numbers showed in the Zapf-Wayne contest was simply that Lorie might be way more competitive than many thought. Even if the poll was absolutely dead-on at that point in time, there were still several days left for things to change, either for Zapf to pull ahead by some margin or for Wayne to pull away from her. The fact that the former took place, is indicative of Zapf being far more competitive than many pundits believed, in my view a substantiation of that which the poll suggested.
Can we move on now?