The 39th state senate is a pick-up chance for Republicans in 2012 since (A) incumbent Chris Kehoe is term-limited and (B) the new state district Map adds Republican territory in Rancho Bernardo, San Carlos, Del Cerro, Mira Mesa and Coronado. All that is lacking is a Republican candidate to face probable Demo nominee Marty Block. If You, a Friend, Family member or colleague has waited for Opportunity to Knock… then start Listening right now, because there it is!
39TH SENATE NEIGHBORHOODS… Lean Republican: (18) Rancho Bernardo, Point Loma, Allied Gardens, San Carlos, Clairemont, Bay Park, Rancho Penasquitos, Mira Mesa, Serra Mesa, Del Cerro, Tierrasanta, Navajo, La Jolla, University City, Mission Village, Fairbanks Ranch, Carmel Valley, Coronado.
Lean Democratic: (13) …. Linda Vista, South Park, Oak Park, Normal Heights, North Park, Hillcrest, Mission Valley, Mission Hills, Downtown, Ocean Beach, Pacific Beach, College Area, Del Mar.
That is a summary of Neighborhoods within the new 39th State Senate district and their general political affiliations based on past election returns and anticipated reaction to the nominees.
This election analysis substantially pits North of I-8 neighborhoods (Republican) vs. the communities South of Interstate 8 (mostly Democratic). You already knew that, but note that Point Loma and Coronado are South of I-8, and Del Mar/UCSD are north of it.
………LET THE WORD GO FORTH FROM THIS TIME AND PLACE
Please spread the word, tweet this post to anyone you think might be interested. Then contact Tony Krvaric at the Republican Party, or write to me at YourElectionVictory@hotmail.com . 2012 might well be YOUR year.
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Jim Sills is a San Diego political consultant. If you have questions about your future in San Diego and California elections, you can contact Jim at this e-mail address: YourElectionVictory@hotmail.com He has aided campaigns for Rep. Darrell Issa, Assemblywoman Shirley Horton, Senators Joel Anderson and Tony Strickland, Representatives Devin Nunes and J.D. Hayworth, County Assessor & Recorder Greg Smith, among many others in California and beyond.
Comments 11
Jim,
I understand that more of the neighborhoods in this district lean Republican, but I am not sure how relevant that is; after all, the vast majority of counties in the California lean Republican yet all Statewide offices are held by Democrats.
The bottom line is that the registration in this District favors the Democrats 37-30%. This is not an insurmountable margin to overcome, but it certainly isn’t a seat the Republicans should expect to win.
The 39th is Not a Safe Seat for either major party now.
And that is a good thing ! Competition encourages a fairer,
and more open election process.
But your analogy to small counties (like Modoc or Inyo) vs.
big counties (LA and Alameda) does not work here. Places
such as Mira Mesa, San Carlos, Rancho Bernardo, Clairemont
and Penasquitos are heavily populated and cast many votes.
The big differences between 2008 and 2009/2010 were (1)
the shift of those “Independent” voters to the GOP and
(2) a major decline in Democratic base turnout. [I had
the privilege of hearing that analysis in person from
Michael Barone in his USD lecture last year. He runs
the ‘Almanac of American Politics’.]
Republicans can win SD 39 in 2012 with a positive
message to the Independents, and an energized base.
As you point out the 39th is not safe for either. Even an Independent making an “I’m not one of them” race has a chance. The 7th Council District could affect the turn out here with a hard fought race driving turn out. The Left believes Assembly/TV Celebrity Marty Block is one of them and Labor counts on Block to carry their water. A Republican would have to show that he is not a me too candidate in order to capitalize on a good base turn out while at the same time cajoling those Independents who want services but do not want to pay for them.
Jim,
Independents carried the day for Democrats in 2008 mainly because they were unsatisfied with the results of the Bush administration. The Democratd who were elected in 2008 completely mis-read the results as a mandate for the worst of their inclinations and the result was a Republican rout, led by Independents, in 2010.
In my opinion, the Republicans have made the same mistake the Democrats made after the 2008 election. The good news for Republicans is that it has only been two years since the Democrats were voted out and most Independents probably remember why they did that. Even so, I would expect the Independent vote to be more evenly divided than it was in either 2008 or 2010 and a +7 will still be a challenge to overcome.
I do agree with you that the more competitive the races become, the better that is for everyone. That is the reason I strongly supported both the Open Primary and taking the Redistricting process out of the hands of the elected officials.
Mole,
“…while at the same time cajoling those Independents who want services but do not want to pay for them.”
Thank you for putting a main plank of the Republican platform in writing.
I wish Fletcher would run for this.
Are you dreamy, Dreamy, or is Fletcher?
Inquire within on this.
Also, another way to look at this is: “Who wants to run for mayor in 2020?” This district encompasses a vast majority of the City of San Diego. Timing wise, two Senate terms align perfectly with two mayoral terms for whoever wins mayor this go around.
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Potential candidates can write to Chairman Tony Krvaric at this e-mail address: Tony@TonyKrvaric.com
A very Astute Observation, Mr. Chairman !
A word to the Wise should be sufficient.
Jim – Could the reason a high profile candidate has yet to appear is because they are waiting to see what happens to the signature verification on the state senate map referendum petition?
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That’s a plausible and reasonable insight. Thanks!
Marshallplan,
What then would explain other high profile candidates like Hodges and Waldron declaring for races where the districts are more conducive to electing a Republican?
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Only the State Senate portion of the Redistricting Commission’s proposals face a referendum petition. The State Assembly maps are not contested. Waldron and Hodges are Assembly candidates.