The Registrar has counted 2/3 of the votes left as
of last Friday, leaving just 40,000 to tabulate county-
wide. Today’s developments:
CHULA VISTA
Jill Galvez (6151) still leads Patricia Aguilar (6102)
for the 2nd runoff spot in Chula Vista, seat 2. Larry
Breitfelder (10156) awaits the runoff.
OCEANSIDE
Lloyd Prosser (9344) remains just behind Chuck
Lowery (9412) in Oceanside. There are about 2,500
more votes to count in that Council race.
RON NEHRING
The State GOP Chairman is now 266 votes ahead for his central committee seat in AD 77.
S.D. SCHOOL BOARD
Steve Rosen raised his lead over incumbent Katherine Nakamura from 176
votes on Friday to 245 today (10,394 Rosen to 10,149 Nakamura). It appears
incumbent Nakamura will be ousted in the primary, a major upset.
POWAY
John Mullin (2870) remains just ahead of Steve Vaus (2763) to succeed recalled
Councilwoman Betty Rexford.
Stay tuned for further updates this week on SD Rostra, where we are Live, Local and Late Breaking !
Comments 9
Ron now below 200! This is going to be close.
East County:
The margin between Ron Nehring and Greg Stephens
has fluctuated over the past week.
Here is the Tale-of-the-Tape on the first 4 updates:
(June 10th)………. Ron Nehring….. +302
(June 11th)………..Ron Nehring….. +240
(June 14th)………..Ron Nehring….. + 266
(June 15th)………..Ron Nehring …… + 192
There are 26,000 votes, from all parties, left to tabulate
countywide. I estimate 2,400 of those are Republicans
in the 77th AD.
If Las Vegas was dealing on the outcome, the number
would come : Nehring – $1.80, Stephens + $1.60.
Latest count today is Ron Nehring +96 with 10,000 left to count.
If the same trend continues, I say Greg pulls it off.
Quick figuring….
10,000 left to count….figure at MOST 6,000 of them GOP votes and at the VERY most 1,000 of them in the 77th AD (high on both parts).
Now, if only Stephens and Nehring were in the race, those 1,000 votes would mean something.
BUT, remember, there are 11 candidates for central committee in this district, with percentages of the vote currently running anywhere from the last place person at 5.18% to the leader, Bill Baber, at 11.68%.
Those percentages have been pretty consistent…and will remain that way over the final 1,000 votes (again, at the most).
Nehring and Stephens are currently at 9.67 and 9.33 percent of the vote already counted respectively. Let’s call it 10 percent each for ease. So, out of the 1,000 votes left to count, the two will share about 200 votes between them.
Do the math, and you see that Stephens would need about 150 of those votes to Nehring’s 50 to catch up and pass.
A simpler way of looking at it; Stephens would have to get about 15 percent of the vote left, and Nehring would have to get only 5 percent.
Stephens would have to pull a higher percentage over the final count than the person leading the race, and Nehring would have to pull lower than the candidate now in dead last out of the 11 on the ballot.
Final Analysis: It’s not going to happen.
Some will read this as me taking on Greg Stephens. It’s not…it’s pure analysis. Little opinion, except about some of the conjecture, which will prove out, I am quite confident.
Yet, my best wishes to both of them. I just had a few minutes on my hands.
The common error made by East County and others is in thinking that the votes left will be split between two candidates.
This one is amazing; Galvez and Aguilar separated by only 22 votes for the number two run off spot:
CITY OF CHULA VISTA CITY COUNCIL – SEAT NO. 2
Vote for: 1
LARRY BREITFELDER
10601
35.77%
JILL GALVEZ
6475
21.85%
PATRICIA AGUILAR
6453
21.78%
HUMBERTO PERAZA
6105
20.60%
Oh, Greg, if I am wrong, lunch is on me.
Barry,
Your on!
Here is the funny thing I am enjoying this, No pressure on me. I am the “no name rookie” Neck and neck with the Former leader, Win or lose.
Times they are a changin guys. We the People are making a comeback.