On November 7, special election day in the District 4 County Supervisor’s race, I asked several dozen local wonks if they’d like to take a guess before polling closed at 8 pm on the percentage of the vote Monica Montgomery Steppe and Amy Reichert would each receive, with those closest to the mark getting bragging rights.
As it currently stands, here’s the count from the Registrar of Voters:
|Monica Montgomery Steppe||60,226|
With only a few hundred votes left to tally, any change will be negligible, so let’s see how we did.
Guesses ranged from Montgomery Steppe getting a low of 53.73 percent to a high of 80 percent. (The person guessing 80 — uhh, seriously?)
Of about two dozen taking a stab, the average guess came in at 64.38 percent for Montgomery Steppe, 2.81 percent from the final result. Nice conjecturing!
The players closest to the mark:
Name / % Guess / How Close
1) Tom Tamar / 62.00 – 38.00 / 0.43%
2) Barry Jantz / 63.00 – 37.00 / 1.43%
3) Pat Batten / 63.17 – 36.83 / 1.60%
4) Steve Friar / 58.34 – 41.66 / 3.23%
5) Confidential / 57.50 – 42.50 / 4.07%
I can’t win my own contest, can I? Unless I ever do. (Yeah, I emailed myself with my own guess about 3:30 pm, in case anyone demands proof.)
If any bright political minds are insulted I didn’t ask them to participate in what was a very last minute ask, just email me at email@example.com; I’ll get you next time.
Congrats to Tom Tamar! Lunch is on me.