Rocky Chavez is running for Congress, vacating his Assembly seat in the 76th Assembly District. Inlookers may recall that he ran for US Senate last cycle and, at the last minute before the filing deadline, opted to drop out of the US Senate race and run for re-election in his Assembly seat. Jerry Kern and Phil Graham dropped out of the race and Rocky’s only opposition came from a primary write-in candidate who advanced to the general election and lost.
Chavez has pretty much burned his ships with his announcement to run for Congress. If he is unhappy with his polling against Diane Harkey, it will be hard for him to pivot back to his old Assembly seat. The short list of possible candidates will be “all-in”. I doubt they would drop out. Here is what we’ve heard about the possible field thus far:
Former Encinitas Mayor Jerome Stocks has announced his candidacy.
Business executive and former Assembly candidate Phil Graham announced his candidacy
Vista Deputy Mayor Amanda Rigby is expected to run
San Dieguito High School District Trustee Mo Muir has announced her candidacy.
The name of the game is going to be money and endorsements in this Assembly race. Each candidate is going to have issues with District wide name recognition so direct mail pieces and yard signs are going to be key. The two Democratic opponents haven’t raised much more than $50,000 to date. Graham has over $100,000 raised as of today.
Graham, Rigby, and Muir have conservative credentials. Stocks has his horrible pension vote hanging over his head. Nonetheless, any of the four would be preferred over the Democratic candidates.
It’s a short race and money will get the message out. If someone files to run, and doesn’t have at least $200,000 cash-on-hand, they won’t be able to win