Vargas Dominos Redux

Greg LarkinGreg Larkin 9 Comments

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It should be no surprise that Assemblyman Ben Hueso won yesterday’s special election to fill the open 40th State Senate seat, which became vacant by virtue of Juan Vargas’ election to Congress last year.  Next is the special election for Hueso’s assembly seat.

As was noted on Rostra in March a year ago

If Hueso were to run and win a special election for Senate, it would create a vacancy in his Assembly seat.

So, who would run for Assembly?

Lorena Gonzalez, secretary-treasurer of the San Diego-Imperial Counties Labor Council, recently moved into a community that overlaps the new 80th Assembly district, where Hueso is seeking reelection.

Domino Scenario #1: Vargas > Hueso > Gonzalez

In response to the question of such a possible scenario, culminating in a Gonzalez run for Assembly, she said, “I am running for reelection to the Labor Council.”

By the way, Gonzalez did win her Labor Council reelection.  She is is now running for Hueso’s Assembly seat.

As Jim Sills used to say, “You read it here.”

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Comments 9

  1. This was an almost impossible district to win.. The Democratic registration is at 47% while the Republican registration is at 27%. The money advantage was almost 40 to 1. There are three major media markets in this District (LA, El Centro, and San Diego) which puts low dollar candidates at an extreme disadvantage. The two Republican candidates are drew a combined 37% of the vote with Hector Gastelum winning 22% of it. Republicans played above well our potential in this election.

    Hector Gasteleum is a real estate broker and political neophyte. He has surrounded himself with folks who some good volunteers articulated the principles Liberty really well. I’m proud of his performance it would have deen a “Mr Smith goes to Sacramento” story.

    Hector is going to have a bright future in the public arena if he wants it. He ran a clean, positive campaign, he didn’t break the “11th Commandment”, and he challenged Hueso to a series of debates in Spanish (close to 60% of the constitutents speak Spanish as a first language).

    Board members of the Imperial County NAACP endorsed him because he said (1) lower regulations means more jobs and (2) poor people should have an opportunity to choose private schools (vouchers/tuition tax credits.

    I think of Hector as a “bleeding heart conservative”. He knows less government & increased competition produces more robust solutions for an upwardly mobile society. I”m proud of his campaign

  2. If the GOP wants to guarantee Hector having two losses in two races, thus labeling him a perennial candidate and office shopper, by all means, AD 80.

  3. Greg Larkin is right. However fine a man Hector Gastelum is, in this contest he would not have the proverbial snowballs’ chance in hell. Lorena Gonzalez moved to a much more favorable district, solidified internal Labor/Democrat support, staunched internal Labor/Democrat opposition, is accepted as a wheeler dealer by local crony capitalists, has her brothers’ environmental extremeist connections, not to mention her own stint as alternate to the Coastal Commision and has her earned state and national Labor support. Don’t waste time, money and
    especially don’t sacrifice a good future candidate!

  4. If Hector Gasteleum is a great candidate, but the 80th isn’t a good district for him, and obvious the party didn’t do anything to help in the 40th senate district, where then is a good district for him?

  5. “where then is a good district for him?”

    First, Greg Larkin is absolutely correct about the 80th A.D. — Lorena moved there because it is the only District she can win. It will be 3-4 election cycles, of concentrated outreach, and a rock star candidate to win back that AD for the GOP.

    The right district for Hector is a City Council . He needs to get some experience in government and build a record

  6. If he plans to live in Chula Vista:

    Mayor Cheryl Cox is up in 2014
    Council #1 Rudy Ramirez is up in 2014
    Council #2 Patricia Aguilar is up in 2014

    Will the Mayor run again?
    Will Ramirez and Aguilar run again and or for something else?
    What district does Hector Gastelum live in?

    Now is the time to figure out those things and what options are available. Get a head start, fend off potential competition early, organize, raise money and get early endorsements. Do what LoGo did and be prepared when the opportunity arises.

  7. “Now is the time to figure out those things and what options are available”

    Agreed. As Hector reads this blog site, I hope he notices your good advice.

  8. HI guys, thanks for the kind words. I live in Assembly district #79 according to the new maps, but have the flexibility to move. I appreciate the support, you know. I am still p’o’d that I lost the Senate election, upset that I was not able to inspire more support in the form of votes & money, it was closer than everybody thought. Most folks were thinking he’d get 80%, and he had to spend +$300k to barely beat the 10k that I spent, and barely got 52.3.

    I will be active and will become more active. We have to start focusing on winning democrat seats, and not just safe seats. I know it damages my brand if I go after certain battles, but we need to fight them, for our values, our kids and our future.

    I am 95% leaning towards sitting the Special Election for the Assembly. Focus on growing my practice and winning big in 2014.

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