Credible new number-crunching reveals the revised 39th state senate seat depicted above (held by Chris Kehoe now) would have a 38% to 34% GOP registration edge, and backed Meg Whitman vs. Jerry Brown by a 52% to 40% margin in 2010. (Hat tip to Redistricting Partners group.) Stunner! This would now be a clear-cut GOP seat, not just a competitive one, if adopted by the State Redistricting Commission, whose staff drew this proposal.
So who wants to be a State Senator? As of today no Republican has filed for this seat! How fast will that change as news gets out about this map? As of today three Democrat hopefuls have already taken out papers (Toni Atkins, Howard Wayne, and Lori Saldana).
……….SD Rostra had this Story for You Last JANUARY
Remember you read this possibility first at SD Rostra back on Jan. 31, 2011 when we headlined, “Shhh…Republicans Can win a Redrawn 39th Senate!” (Modesty mandates I not mention who wrote that perceptive prediction.) We accurately foresaw Rancho Bernardo, San Carlos, Tierrasanta and Penasquitos being added to the 39th … but we didn’t know it’d then go all the way East to Jamul! (Republicans held the 39th senate seat for 23 of the 27 years from 1962 – 1989, when its contours looked a lot like this “New” map.)
Options now for Toni Atkins may turn to the Coastal senate seat, which also leans Republican, but less so than the draft 39th. It’ll likely next be voted on in 2014, and that might mean Atkins seeking a third and final term in the Assembly next year … but it would be in a district with many more Republicans than the one she now holds.
Stay tuned to SD Rostra as this three-ring State Redistricting Rodeo continues!
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Jim Sills is a San Diego political consultant. If you have questions about your future in San Diego and California elections, you can contact Jim at this e-mail address: YourElectionVictory@Hotmail.com
He has aided the campaigns of Rep. Darrell Issa, Assemblywoman Shirley Horton, Senators Joel Anderson and Tony Strickland, Representatives Devin Nunes andJ.D. Hayworth, County Assessor & Recorder Greg Smith, among many others in California and beyond.