Never have I been so glad to be so wrong.
Writing on this site in the spring of 2023 I argued that the only way for a conservative/populist (Trump or anyone else) to win the White House was through a strong third party showing that would throw the race to the House.
As part of this argument, I made the case that Georgia and Arizona were lost forever and that the so-called “swing” states of Nevada, New Hampshire, and Colorado hadn’t swung in a long time, at least to Republicans. In addition, I thought Trump’s capture of the Blue Wall states was a one-off.
Well, let’s just say I’ve never been much of a prognosticator.
Much of my thesis was based on the fact that each of those swing states, new and old, is dominated by a metropolitan area (Atlanta, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Boston, Denver, Detroit, Milwaukee, Philadelphia) that is overwhelmingly and immutably liberal and that cancels out any broad-based support for conservatives in the rest of their respective states (or region, in the case of New England). Unless you think the 2020 election was outright stolen, I thought that election proved my point.
Following my disappointment after the Red Wave didn’t materialize in 2022, I was further convinced that the country had finally turned a corner politically and was beyond redemption. The United States of the 21st century had gone the way of the European Union.
I was also enthralled by the idea (developed in a series of essays on my Substack) that the battle between the Traditionalists and the Counterculture that had begun in the 1960s had reached its natural resolution and that the ‘60s radicals had won. Writing on the one-year anniversary of January 6, I wrote:
“This country experienced a civil war in the 1960s and 1970s with no clear winner. This war was about a great many things—Race, Sex, Vietnam—but in essence the fight was over whether this nation, as constituted, would be transformed from a federal to a national system, with a liberal elite running the latter.”
More recently, my certainty on that point had only grown after reading de Tocqueville’s warnings about democracy. According to de Tocqueville, democracies tend to become paternalistic—socialistic—over time (never mind that democracies are, in essence, just another form of socialism, as James Madison understood). To quote the former at length:
“The idea of rights inherent in certain individuals is rapidly disappearing from men’s minds; the idea of the omnipotence and sole authority of society at large is coming to fill its place. These ideas take root and spread as conditions become more equal and men more alike; equality brings them to birth, and they in turn hasten the progress of equality….
In France, where the revolution of which I speak has gone further than in any other European country, these opinions have got complete hold of the public mind….
For the first time they [the elites] learn that the central power which they represent can and should administer directly according to a uniform plan all affairs and all men.” (Democracy in America, Part IV, Chapter 2)
But after Tuesday, I’m feeling a sensation that is foreign to my generally pessimistic, dyspeptic disposition—Hope. The domestic conflict that began 1960s and has lasted my entire life is over AND THE SQUARES WON!
Americans are not willing to just “get with the program” and follow the elites for the “public good.”
They still reject government overreach, in our time the federal government’s attempts to impose transgender “rights” and DEI.
They believe that we are a nation, not just a government, that has essential characteristics that must be guarded and defended.
Yes, the Traditionalists (by this I mean not only moral traditionalists but those who believe in a traditional reading of the Constitution, limited government, the profit motive, and who are generally proud to be Americans) have lost a few—gay marriage and government run healthcare come to mind—but Donald Trump’s victory ended the argument on a whole host of issues (abortion as a national issue, the outer limits of gay/trans rights and identity politics generally, the de-carbonization of the economy, endless free trade agreements, open borders, reparations) forever.
Don’t get me wrong. Other issues will soon fill the void, most likely entitlement spending and the limits of the social welfare state, which haven’t really been debated since welfare reform in the 1990s and George W’s failed attempt to reform Social Security. And the left never gives up. But it’s hard to see how the issues listed above make a return at the national level, at least if the Democrats want to be a viable national party. If nothing else, the window of opportunity for many of these initiatives is closing and will be overtaken by other events and priorities.
Of course, that does not mean that all things are well in America. Our culture is still sick. Too many Americans, especially young men, are lost and aimless. The breakdown of the family, social isolation, and the pervasiveness of drug use have combined to create a phenomenon referred to by the media and public health officials as the “mental health crisis.”
Our popular culture is perverse and increasingly demonic. The entertainment industry normalizes the worst instincts of human nature. Worst of all, Americans (even conservatives) consume the products of the media leviathan unthinkingly.
The complete absence of God from the culture has left people hopeless and in search of anything to fill the void, all the while insisting on “living their own truth.”
The biggest challenge to a MAGA-agenda is our own state of California, which through its size, wealth, and cultural influence, can use its regulatory powers to impose on the rest of the country (and world) its preferred approaches to public policy, most destructively by its insistence on the elimination of fossil fuels and greenhouse gas emissions. The ability of California to force itself on the rest of the country may be the sleeper issue of our time.
But that’s a topic for another article; for now, let us rejoice! Our nation was lost, but now it is found! We remain the “last best hope of earth” for freedom-loving people everywhere.
J.S. Scifo is a North County resident who has worked in national and state politics.