Reliable sources tell SD Rostra that labor forces got more / less than they expected in an early-January poll of 750 likely San Diego City June voters. The surprising results for Mayor, including “leaners,” are said to be: Carl DeMaio 26%, Nathan Fletcher 17%, Bonnie Dumanis 16%, and Bob Filner 14%. Some prior mayoral surveys, public and private, did not rigorously screen for high-propensity voters. With a June 2012 turnout of 35% to 40% projected by local number-crunchers, a focus on proven high-propensity voters may be crucial.
Our sources say related Favorable / Unfavorable ratings put Filner at 39% favorable to 31% Unfavorable. That 39% favorable lags behind DeMaio (42%) and Dumanis (46%). Fletcher’s approval is said to be at 36%, but with only 11% unfavorable, an enviable 3-1 ratio.
…..BOB FILNER’S POSITION
If accurate, these results paint a serious, but not irreparable problem for Bob Filner. With his own resources, and possible help from “Independent Expenditures” by liberal groups, he has ample time to improve his standing by May and June.
Past history demonstrates that Filner is often at his best when faced with a serious challenge (see Filner v. Mike Aguirre 1987, Filner v. Wadie Deddeh 1992, and Filner v. Juan Vargas 2006).
Still, these are not the numbers local activists would have expected. The commonly heard assumption that Filner has a nearly – automatic “bye” into the second round runoff may now need to be reexamined.
As they say at a popular game of chance, “Please Hold ALL Bingo Cards.” AND REMEMBER: You saw this story first at SD Rostra, where we are Live, Local and Late Breaking!
Jim Sills is a San Diego Republican political consultant. If you have questions about your future in San Diego and California elections, you can contact Jim at this email address: YourElectionVictory@hotmail.com He has aided campaigns for Rep. Darrell Issa, Assemblywoman Shirley Horton, Senators Joel Anderson and Tony Strickland, Representatives Devin Nunes and J.D. Hayworth, County Assessor & Recorder Greg Smith, among many others in California and beyond.