Notice the headline. I really miss Bob Filner press releases.
Despite this version of the contest rolling out only the day before election Tuesday, over 40 readers submitted entries. Several folks did really well on this one, ultimately forcing a tie-breaker.
A reminder of the questions, along with the correct answers and some analysis:
1. When the first results are released shortly after 8 pm., one of the candidates will have more than 52 percent of the vote, TRUE or FALSE?
TRUE. When the first results were announced, Kevin Faulconer had 56.64 percent of the vote. Close to 88 percent of you got this one right, including those who may have thought it would be David Alvarez in the lead, of course.
2. The candidate leading when the first results are released shortly after 8 p.m. will increase his lead between that point and the completion of vote counting (whenever that may be), TRUE or FALSE?
FALSE. Faulconer’s lead dropped over time. Get this — 95 percent (!) of you thought the initial lead would lessen, including those predicting it would completely evaporate.
3. The candidate leading when the first results are released shortly after 8 p.m. will end up winning, TRUE or FALSE?
TRUE. The lead did not completely evaporate. Although not as high as the numbers above, over 70 percent still thought the initial leader would hang on. Perhaps more interesting, 30 percent of you thus thought the lead would change hands somewhere along the line.
4. The losing candidate will concede the race (pick one), a) Tuesday before midnight, b) Wednesday, c) Thursday, OR d) after Thursday.
TUESDAY. Talk about a close call, Alvarez tweeted about 10 minutes before midnight that he had called Faulconer to congratulate him, so this ended up being a great question (if I do say so myself). Alas, only seven of you “knew” the concession would come on election night. This ended up killing everyone else’s chance of winning this ‘lil contest, with guesses spread pretty evenly among the other options, indicating almost everyone thought the race would be closer. Or that someone would have a hard time conceding.
5. Name the winner, David Alvarez or Kevin Faulconer.
About 73 percent correctly predicted Faulconer would win.
Tie-Breaker (only if needed). Pick the final margin (percentage) between the winner and the loser. You may want to guess to a tenth of a point, at least.
Faulconer stands at 52.89 percent, placing the margin of victory at 5.78 percent. Only eight peeps guessed within one percentage of that, between 4.78 and 6.78 percent. About thirty percent of you thought the final margin would be less than two points and only four respondents guessed it would be higher than six points.
Honorable mention: Closest to guessing the correct final margin, selecting 5.7 percent, was Jon Cross. Great going, but he didn’t make it to the tie-breaker for it to matter.
Those with four correct answers: A bunch, close to fifty percent in fact. I’m not about to alphabetize, so just in order of their guesses being submitted:
La Mesa Councilwoman Kristine Alessio
La Mesa-Spring Valley Schools Trustee Bill Baber
Assemblyman Brian Jones
I should note here, the above list is also a great answer to “Who reads Rostra?” But, there’s more:
All five correct answers:
So, with the tie-breaker in play and the margin of victory at 5.78 percent, it comes to this:
Third Place: Guessing 7.08 percent — Patrick Moir
Second Place: Just edging Moir out, selecting 4.5 percent — Sage Naumann
WINNER: Guessing a 4.9 percent margin of victory, only .88 percent from the correct answer — Tony Krvaric
Krvaric, the chairman of the County GOP, will be insufferable over this additional victory, I have no doubt. I promised the winner an Albondigas lunch, but I was thinking he’ll accept a cigar instead.
Thanks for entering, all. Congratulations to the winners!