349,000 SD County ballots have been counted
so far, with another 160,000 late mail ballots
provisionals to come.
Among those counted so far, people voting
in GOP primaries are 185,846, or 53% of
all Votes . Democrats trail with 131,956,
or 38%. Independents and minor parties
are at only 9%.
This confirms a national trend of a renewed
GOP energy level… and that can mean
Victory in November if it continues.
Where do we see this effect in today’s results?
These variations in turnout helped Kevin
Faulconer and Lori Zapf finish 1st in SD
Council primaries, aided Joel Anderson’s
win over Riverside county rivals, and
added to Ron Roberts’ and Bill Horns’
margins, as they ran 25% ahead of
their nearest competitors.
These totals will change with add-on
counts of late absentees & provisionals.
But they won’t change the basic pattern of
Republican renewal in San Diego county.
If you can get your Base to vote, Victory
becomes a great deal easier !
Comments 4
Ummm, I don’t think it’s news that primary voters are older, richer, and more conservative. It’s true in every election. So I don’t think this is evidence of an “enthusiasm gap”
Here are the figures for the last comparable election,
the June 2006 gubernatorial primary. In San Diego
County this is where the Voters came from by party:
Republicans…….45 %
Democrats……….38 %
All others…………..17 %
This year, so far, Republicans comprise 53% of all
votes cast in SD, a sizable increase of 8%.
This becomes even more interesting when you know
that the Republican share of REGISTRATION in SD
dropped from 40% to 35% during the last 4 years.
But Voter Turnout sometimes trumps registration,
and that is what’s happening here and now.
This is not a San Diego-only trend…. GOP voting
in other states’ primaries has also surged this
year.
Indeed, many including the media are missing the essential point here with Jim’s updates, confusing the commonly-held knowledge that both absentee and primary voters tend to be more conservative, with variations in the RATE of turnout. Elections are often won or lost based on turnout patterns between the parties (including who stays home). This increase in the rate of turnout among Rs vs. Ds could be very significant if it carries into November and in places other than San Diego.
Barry:
I’m convinced we are on to something here because
the pattern emerged last week in the breakdown of
Mail Ballots returned…and the gap between the parties
then did NOT narrow when polling place votes were
added on election night.
Democrats had some interesting battles going on
in their primaries too (Juan Vargas v. Mary Salas,
Busby vs. Emblem for Congress, Alvarez-Hueso-
Howard-Inzunza in SD Council 8, and statewide
races for Lt. Governor, and Attorney General).
They had ample reason to vote also.