SAN DIEGO – New Council District lines drawn for the City of San Diego will likely create more competitive elections and shift the balance of power at City Hall. Those are the major findings of a new study published today by the National University System Institute for Policy Research (NUSIPR).
On August 25, 2011, the seven members of the City of San Diego Redistricting Commission adopted new boundary lines for City Council Districts, while also adding a ninth Council seat. NUSIPR used GIS and database software to analyze voter data available from county, state and federal government agencies.
NUISPR’s research suggested four key findings:
San Diego City Council District elections are likely to become more competitive than in previous years. The number of Council Districts with 5% or smaller gaps between registered Republican and Democratic voters has increased from two to four.
The addition of a ninth Council seat will shift the balance of power at San Diego City Hall. After the 2012 election, the number of Council votes needed to create a “supermajority” and override a mayoral veto will increase from five to six, reflecting the addition of District Nine. With Republican registration increasing significantly in three Council Districts, Democrats will find it more difficult to maintain their current supermajority on the City Council.
The increase in “Decline to State Voters” is likely to have an impact even greater than the new district boundaries. NUSIPR analysis showed that voters registering without a party preference will be critical in determining the outcome of almost every Council District election.
Variations in Turnout will also prove key. Outcomes in the Council Districts are also likely to be impacted by levels of voting participation, with infrequent voters determining the outcome of almost every Council District election.
“With the new Council District lines, voters are likely to see more contested races and vulnerable office holders on Election Day,” remarked the report’s author Vince Vasquez, Senior Policy Analyst at NUSIPR. “With neither political party likely to dominate the Council by a large margin, successful policymaking will require more coalition building and less partisanship at City Hall.”
The full version of the City Council District study can be found at the NUSIPR website, here.
Comments 3
I believe that each of these findings, should they prove to be true, are good news for our City. I hope that the Statewide Redistricting coupled with the Open Primary lead to similar results in Sacramento.
Just COINCIDENTALLY, this map targets Lorie Zapf, Republican winner of the top priority 2010 council election, by moving her home out of her own district! That is just a COINCIDENCE.
Just COINCIDENTALLY the map also provides a relatively safe landing place for the Democratic incumbent who would’ve been in the most trouble in 2012 (Marti Emerald, who has announced she
is moving from Tierrasanta and will run in District 9, instead of District 7, where she was elected in 2008).
And just COINCIDENTALLY the Penasquitos home of GOP leader Phil Thalheimer, who narrowly lost to Sherri Lightner (D) in 2008, was moved out of the 1st district represented by Lightner..
I don’t question the motives or expertise of the people who wrote the study mentioned above, but their lack of LOCAL KNOWLEDGE is a shortcoming.
The political agenda, and pre-ordained results, of the majority which approved this Council map is laughably obvious.
Jim,
Were you at any of the Redistricting Commission meetings? If you were, I doubt you would have made any of those comments, but let’s look at each one.
1. Lorie Zapf was moved out of her district. Big deal, so was Todd Gloria. The Commission was specifically precluded from protecting incumbents by keeping their current homes in their district. Ms. Zapf’s politics fit well with the new D2 and she could actually get two more terms in that district.
2. District 9 was created as a hispanic-majority district – It certainly wasn’t created with Matrti Emerald in mind; in fact, I am sure there are quite a few hispanic leaders who are quite upset that she is going to run in that district. More to the point, don’t you think D9 is a likely Democratic seat with or without Emerald running.? And don’t you think the Republicans have a better chance in D7 now that it is an open seat?
3. Rancho Penasquitos was never a fit with the rest of the communities in D1 and there was almost no way to keep it in D1 now that there are nine districts and therefore less people in each district. If Thallheimer wants to run again, his political leanings make him a lock for his new district, D5.