Pollster Raul Furlong heads Datamar Research, which published polls during the 2005 race to succeed Dick Murphy as San Diego Mayor. This week Mr. Furlong shares Inside Data from the Donna Frye-Jerry Sanders-Steve Francis-Richard Rider primary race, with lessons to draw for the 2012 DeMaio-Dumanis-Fletcher-Filner contest. Here is Part 1 of a 3-part series.
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by Raul Furlong
The 2005 Mayoral election was a “Special Election” due to the sudden resignation of Mayor Dick Murphy. The resignation occurred suddenly ( it became effective July 15, 2005), and there was a scramble of candidates to position themselves as viable replacements for the job. The Special Primary was set for July 26, 2005.
The 2012 Mayoral primary election, on the other hand, is being conducted under a normal election cycle, the incumbent Mayor cannot run for reelection, due to term limits, and there are no city-wide public scandals lurking in the public square. Although the troubled pension system that forced Dick Murphy to resign is still unresolved, a proposed pension reform initiative petition for the June 2012 election is gathering signatures.
A look back on the Mayor’s 2005 voters’ statistics and polling results is helpful to prepare for the upcoming election. Let’s take a closer look at the 2005 battlefield as the rivals took their places.
The Voters: The City of San Diego registered voter population totaled 600,505 (2005 sos Report). The partisan breakdown was: Percent Democratic 39.1, Republican 33.6, Independent 22.7, Other parties 4.6.
The Issues by Candidate: Donna Frye, a Democrat, promoted the use of solar energy and renewable energy resources as a major source of economic development. Jerry Sanders, a Republican, portrayed himself as a “moderate Republican” and ran on his record as a former San Diego police chief, of turning the department around, also turning around the local chapters of the United Way and the Red Cross at a time of crisis.
Steve Francis, a Republican, identified himself as a “conservative Republican” and unveiled a plan that called for rolling back the “illegal pension deals” and making cuts to the City Hall staff and budget. Francis also backed a study developed by Carl DeMaio’s Performance Institute, which said the city could save millions in the next 2 fiscal years with consolidation of 10 departments and bureaus. Francis’ Campaign slogan was, “No Taxes, no Bankruptcy.”
Datamar published a series of polls about the Mayor’s race in 2005. This analysis covers the period starting June 13, 2005 and subsequent polls published through to July 25, 2005, the day before the election.
………….Opening Scores…. June 13, 2005 Poll
The front runner, Councilwoman Donna Frye garnered 41.1% of the support and started in a comfortable lead, former police chief Jerry Sanders received 34.1% and was in a strong second place for the primary, Steve Francis , Executive Chairman of AMN Healthcare, Inc. , got only 3.1% of the vote. Francis was relatively unknown in political circles at the time, and had little name I.D. with San Diego voters. (This survey reflects completed interviews with 1,042 high propensity registered voters within the City of San Diego).
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That’s not a typographical error. Steve Francis began with 3 % of the vote, and had only 6 weeks left in which to become a serious mayoral challenger.
Lesson to be Learned: opening Poll scores are meaningful, but not necessarily conclusive…… In Part 2 of this series, Raul Furlong will examine what happened over the next month in that politically intense Summer of 2005. Stay tuned to SD Rostra for that!
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