One-Day High margin, (+12%) on Monday — 47% Rep, 35% Dem — Where a late GOP tide could help most

Jim Sills Jim Sills Leave a Comment


There is often, though now always, a “swing” in the final 72 hours of a campaign.  San Diego mail ballots of Sunday and Monday suggest it is happening now.  When Rostra’s reports began May 21st, the GOP mail edge was 41% to 39%.  Later daily returns moved to 43-38, then to 45-38, then 46-37 (on Sunday) and finally to 47%-35% on Monday.  Movement in the Late Absentees often indicates where Election Day voters are trending.  WHERE WILL IT IMPACT?  Down-ballot races feel a maximum effect.  They may include:  Mark Powell (School Board), George Plescia (SD 39), Brian Bilbray (CD 52), Ray Ellis & Scott Sherman (city council).  If you see most of these & other candidates do better than foreseen, this will be a significant reason.


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