Open Secret No More – “NPP” Surpasses GOP Registration

William Del Pilar William Del Pilar 7 Comments

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A conservative Latino’s view on politics…

I view the state Republican Party with embarrassment, contempt, and no awareness when it comes to voter registration. The recent headlines showing the Republican Party falling to No. 3 in registration, behind “No Party Preference” (NPP) is making the public aware of their massive failure in California. How’d we get here?

  • “’No Party Preference’ overtakes Republican in Democrat-dominated California”
  • “Independent voters now outnumber Republicans in California”
  • “Independent voters surpass Republicans in California”

The GOP saw NPP dominance coming and did nothing

You can go back for the past three decades to see the decline happening. In San Diego County, it began about 2012 and we’ve been losing the registration battle since.

*Hanging by a Thread – From 2007 to 2017 

  • The Republican Party: 34.2 percent registration to 25.9 percent.
  • No Party Preference: 18.8 percent to 24.5 percent.
  • Democrat Party: 42.5 percent to 44.8 percent.
  • Other: 4.5 percent to 4.9 percent.
  • San Diego County is in the top 10 for registered NPP’s with 27.89 percent.

*Odd-Numbered Year Report of Registration

**Reality Check – Two Weeks Prior to the June 5, 2018 Primary 

  • No Party Preference: 25.5 percent.
  • The Republican Party: 25.1 percent.
  • Democrat Party: 44.6 percent.
  • Other: 4.8 percent.

**Political Data Inc. (PDI)

California Registration Takeaways – NPP Dominates

  • Democrat Party is holding steady.
  • Republican Party is in a freefall.
  • NPP is skyrocketing.

Basic Truths

  • The Democrat owned Latino base is growing.
  • Older Republican Anglos are dying.
  • Liberal millennials are coming-of-age.
  • Middle-class Republicans are fleeing the state.
  • The Republican Party has quit fighting in some Democrat strongholds.
  • Democrats are succeeding in falsely branding the Republican Party racist.

The “GOVERNATOR” terminates conservative Republicans

When Republican Party candidate Arnold Schwarzenegger (2003-2011) became the “GOVERNATOR,” voter registration spiked, but in his final years, plummeted about 300,000. He went left and broke faith with the grassroots of the party – the conservatives who helped elect him. With betrayal came a lack of involvement and a loss in voter registration

The Republican Party outsourcing to third parties

When you grow a party, you rally and build around initiatives and candidates. When you outsource and rely on third parties, you lose some of the ability to perform fundamental tasks. Combined with a lack of branding, the Republican Party lost support which also meant lost registrations. This goes directly to a lack of leadership and management – bad strategy and tactics.

War of the Roses (Elites versus Conservatives)

Republican Party elites view the Charles Munger Jr. (top donor) and Jim Brulte (Chairman) reign in the vein of Henry VII; conservatives liken it to Henry VIII. There’s been a successful push to bastardize conservatives and push us toward “Democrat-Light” but they’ll say moderate. The elites in a power play have worked toward creating a disconnect, including and at times, targeting conservative and “Tea Party” leaders.

There’s been minimal if any “party building” exercises. No branding with outreach programs or at least any successful ones. That’s where grassroots thrive. They’re the foundation for initiatives and candidates. Ones needed to help grow registration – it’s been years since we had either.

The “gas tax repeal initiative,” is the first initiative in years, we can successfully rally around and grow registration. It encompasses all demographics which means we can recruit across party lines.

Ironically, it’s the conservative grassroots that are carrying out most of this initiative, led by conservative Carl DeMaio, who’s not an official party leader. This is the first consensus “connection” between the establishment and grassroots the past few years.

The “Jungle Primaries”

It’s shocking to see so many conservatives believe Proposition 14, the Top-Two Primaries Amendment or the “Jungle Primary” was a creation of the Democrat Party. WRONG! It’s a product of the Republican Party’s top benefactor, Charles Munger Jr. and has the full support of Republican leadership. My friends, this creature is a product of the California Republican Party! As previously stated, the goal is to force the Republican Party from conservatism to Democrat-Light.

The Jungle Primaries devalue all party registration except for presidential elections. It gives less reason for people to join a party and hurts, “we, the people.” Steve Franks’ (www.capoliticalreview.com) the expert, who I agree with, states it strengthened the power of the cash-rich unions, deep pocket special interest groups, and wealthy elites. Right now, the Republican Party’s suffering a lack of representation, but in small pockets, Democrats too.

Until constituents – rich and poor – work toward ridding ourselves of it, the Jungle Primaries are here to stay.

Is there hope for the Republican Party to slow NPP growth?

I understand party leaders are starting to look deeper and it’s not as bleak as we think:

  • NPP aren’t all Democrats.
  • Automatic registration is creating more NPP than party designations.
  • Voters are becoming increasingly “independent.”

Despite this, no matter how you slice it, there’s been a 9 percent drop with Republican Party registration since 2007 and none with Democrats. How do we turn this around? Coming soon…

This article originally appeared in the Valley Roadrunner, June 7, 2018.

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Comments 7

  1. I cannot disagree more with your analysis. The “Conservative” wing of the GOP (I would more characterize it as the “reactionary” wing) has stubbornly held onto views so far outside the mainstream that many thoughtful former Republicans feel the party no longer represents them, and have left the party that essentially left them. I am one. The things that made the party great have been abandoned in favor of their own brand of “identity politics”…if you aren’t categorically pro-life, anti-tax, anti-gay marriage, anti-government, and against virtually any proposal that comes from a Democrat (i.e.: do not possess an understanding of political nuance), you are undeserving of party support. So…how’s that working out for you? The numbers tell you.
    https://timesofsandiego.com/opinion/2018/06/09/are-california-republicans-in-a-race-to-political-extinction/

  2. Kirk, maybe that’s why you left the Republican party, but more folks have left it because they don’t believe the Republican Party stands for anything anymore.

  3. As long as the Republican Party will stand behind anyone with an R behind their name to win, it will continue to lose voters. This will happen to the Democrats as well. It’s only time before NPP is what most voters will be registered as. The current political tribalism is a big turn off to everyone, excepting, of course, those promoting their “tribe”.

  4. Three reasons I left the Republican Party.
    G W Bush
    John McCain
    Mitt Romney
    I firmly believe they would run Bob Dole again if they could stand him up long enough.
    Stupidly thinking that we would follow blindly and vote for their next guy in line was their death knell.

  5. Kevin, I firmly believe that’s how and why we got Donald J. Trump as president.

    Kirk, I’m in the Lee DeMeo camp and disagree 100 percent. I just don’t have time to follow through with how wrong you are. That said, Lee put’s it best.

  6. Very interesting – both the article by William Del Pilar and comments made. But no one is talking about 2 other problems causing the Republican downfall in California.

    Problem 1 – the agenda of ‘The Deliberate Dumbing Down of America’ exposed by Charlotte Iserbyt in her book. It seems that both the Democrat and Republican parties are totally okay with this agenda.

    I have asked one question (What kind of government do we have in America?)
    to the many high school and college students I encountered. Just one person said the right answer. sad – see article – http://cdjnews.com/2018/06/18/the-problems-with-the-current-california-education-system-and-how-to-solve-them/#.W06WXCa0XfU

    Problem 2 – I was told that as a precinct captain, I am only allowed to stop twice before each election at the homes of Republican voters only twice before each election. What? not NPP? not Democrats? Why not more often?
    How can we build our base with those restrictions?
    We need to take our neighborhoods back – ie..Neighborhood Watch Meetings once a month so neighbors can talk about the non-partisan issues of the day and learn what candidates have the right solutions.
    That’s how we can grow the Republican Party.

  7. Post
    Author

    Lee Sandvick, I agree 100 percent with your take of NPP and even in split precincts, I believe going to Democrat strongholds is key. Barbary Bry did in the San Diego City Council race and she did so well, she scared that coward Ray Ellis into quitting. What a loser he was but it was partially because of how well she ran her campaign. Contrary to the lie Ellis stated for quitting. Bry went after every single voter, just Democrats.

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