A conservative Latino’s view on politics…
I view the state Republican Party with embarrassment, contempt, and no awareness when it comes to voter registration. The recent headlines showing the Republican Party falling to No. 3 in registration, behind “No Party Preference” (NPP) is making the public aware of their massive failure in California. How’d we get here?
- “’No Party Preference’ overtakes Republican in Democrat-dominated California”
- “Independent voters now outnumber Republicans in California”
- “Independent voters surpass Republicans in California”
The GOP saw NPP dominance coming and did nothing
You can go back for the past three decades to see the decline happening. In San Diego County, it began about 2012 and we’ve been losing the registration battle since.
*Hanging by a Thread – From 2007 to 2017
- The Republican Party: 34.2 percent registration to 25.9 percent.
- No Party Preference: 18.8 percent to 24.5 percent.
- Democrat Party: 42.5 percent to 44.8 percent.
- Other: 4.5 percent to 4.9 percent.
- San Diego County is in the top 10 for registered NPP’s with 27.89 percent.
*Odd-Numbered Year Report of Registration
**Reality Check – Two Weeks Prior to the June 5, 2018 Primary
- No Party Preference: 25.5 percent.
- The Republican Party: 25.1 percent.
- Democrat Party: 44.6 percent.
- Other: 4.8 percent.
**Political Data Inc. (PDI)
California Registration Takeaways – NPP Dominates
- Democrat Party is holding steady.
- Republican Party is in a freefall.
- NPP is skyrocketing.
- The Democrat owned Latino base is growing.
- Older Republican Anglos are dying.
- Liberal millennials are coming-of-age.
- Middle-class Republicans are fleeing the state.
- The Republican Party has quit fighting in some Democrat strongholds.
- Democrats are succeeding in falsely branding the Republican Party racist.
The “GOVERNATOR” terminates conservative Republicans
When Republican Party candidate Arnold Schwarzenegger (2003-2011) became the “GOVERNATOR,” voter registration spiked, but in his final years, plummeted about 300,000. He went left and broke faith with the grassroots of the party – the conservatives who helped elect him. With betrayal came a lack of involvement and a loss in voter registration
The Republican Party outsourcing to third parties
When you grow a party, you rally and build around initiatives and candidates. When you outsource and rely on third parties, you lose some of the ability to perform fundamental tasks. Combined with a lack of branding, the Republican Party lost support which also meant lost registrations. This goes directly to a lack of leadership and management – bad strategy and tactics.
War of the Roses (Elites versus Conservatives)
Republican Party elites view the Charles Munger Jr. (top donor) and Jim Brulte (Chairman) reign in the vein of Henry VII; conservatives liken it to Henry VIII. There’s been a successful push to bastardize conservatives and push us toward “Democrat-Light” but they’ll say moderate. The elites in a power play have worked toward creating a disconnect, including and at times, targeting conservative and “Tea Party” leaders.
There’s been minimal if any “party building” exercises. No branding with outreach programs or at least any successful ones. That’s where grassroots thrive. They’re the foundation for initiatives and candidates. Ones needed to help grow registration – it’s been years since we had either.
The “gas tax repeal initiative,” is the first initiative in years, we can successfully rally around and grow registration. It encompasses all demographics which means we can recruit across party lines.
Ironically, it’s the conservative grassroots that are carrying out most of this initiative, led by conservative Carl DeMaio, who’s not an official party leader. This is the first consensus “connection” between the establishment and grassroots the past few years.
The “Jungle Primaries”
It’s shocking to see so many conservatives believe Proposition 14, the Top-Two Primaries Amendment or the “Jungle Primary” was a creation of the Democrat Party. WRONG! It’s a product of the Republican Party’s top benefactor, Charles Munger Jr. and has the full support of Republican leadership. My friends, this creature is a product of the California Republican Party! As previously stated, the goal is to force the Republican Party from conservatism to Democrat-Light.
The Jungle Primaries devalue all party registration except for presidential elections. It gives less reason for people to join a party and hurts, “we, the people.” Steve Franks’ (www.capoliticalreview.com) the expert, who I agree with, states it strengthened the power of the cash-rich unions, deep pocket special interest groups, and wealthy elites. Right now, the Republican Party’s suffering a lack of representation, but in small pockets, Democrats too.
Until constituents – rich and poor – work toward ridding ourselves of it, the Jungle Primaries are here to stay.
Is there hope for the Republican Party to slow NPP growth?
I understand party leaders are starting to look deeper and it’s not as bleak as we think:
- NPP aren’t all Democrats.
- Automatic registration is creating more NPP than party designations.
- Voters are becoming increasingly “independent.”
Despite this, no matter how you slice it, there’s been a 9 percent drop with Republican Party registration since 2007 and none with Democrats. How do we turn this around? Coming soon…
This article originally appeared in the Valley Roadrunner, June 7, 2018.