Dave Brat, economics professor, neophyte, and “underfunded” candidate has done the unbelievable — he decidedly defeated House Majority Leader Eric Cantor for the Republican nomination in Virginia’s 7th Congressional District. Brat ran a campaign that attracted heavy tea party support, criticizing Cantor for his votes for the debt ceiling increase and his support for comprehensive immigration reform (italicized and emboldened intentionally).
Some observations:
1- You gotta pick your battles. VA CD-7 is a deep red district. It’s had a Republican House member since 1971 and three conservative Democrats (we used to have those) serving from 1935-1971.
2- Talk about the conversation in voters’ heads. Immigration has been in the headlines these past few months as has cronyism. Brat blasted Cantor on both in the few weeks prior to the election.
3- Have a credible candidate. Brat is accomplished, educated, and respected. He was no Christine O’Donnell
4- Run a high-minded campaign. Brat’s motivation to run wasn’t personal. Brat said, “I’m not running against Eric Cantor but I’m running against folks who stay up there too long and turn from the District to represent folks up in DC.”
5- Seek prominent endorsements which speak to your constituents. Brat had difficulty securing “mainstream” endorsements, but national, conservative talk show hosts Mark Levin and Laura Ingraham supported him. That kind of media support doesn’t do much in CA-CD 51 but in Brat’s district, it meant a lot.
What’s that mean in San Diego?
It would be tough to run a tea party-type insurgency in Congressional Districts 51, 52, or 53. Likewise for Assembly Districts 78-80. San Diego City Council District 5 seems to be the only one which would support a hard-line conservative. Tea party supporters might understand that opportunities to move legislative bodies rightwards are going to come by challenging “safe” Republicans rather than Democrats.
I always want to see a conservative run in every race. Kirk Jorgensen’s and Fred Simon’s campaigns, while difficult in CD-52, proved that Carl DeMaio needs conservative support to defeat Scott Peters (I think that Jorgensen and Simon carried the majority of the Republican vote). That June showing highlights that DeMaio has to speak more deeply to the issues which concern traditional conservatives if he expects to win — that’s a victory in my book.
Conservative opportunities are going to come in red districts, though. Darrell Issa could have been challenged on his immigration reform plan and his questionable voting record. While Issa remains very popular in his District, he will retire sooner rather than later. THAT, in my opinion, is where the next opportunity lies for tea party conservatives. Neel Kashkari’s gubernatorial candidacy is nothing more than a PR campaign for him in a future race, in a safe Republican seat. But, as for the next real, local opportunity — Issa’s seat — Assemblyman Rocky Chavez is popular in the San Diego portion of the District and Diane Harkey will clearly be a contender if the opportunity presents itself in 2018.
San Diego tea party supporters might be drafting a plan for that 2018 race.
Comments 6
Brian – simple math. DeMaio carried a majority of the Republican vote. And obviously a good share of the Independent vote.
Author
I’m not seeing that. I see Republican voter registration at 34% in the District and Messrs Jorgensen and Simon winning over 20% of the total vote cast.
Voter turnout might have been much higher for Republicans but I still see the 28,000 voters J & S received as crucial to a DeMaio victory
Its wrong to assume that the Jorgenson/Simon vote will automatically go to Carl. Many of those were strictly anti-Carl, and Peters is not all that unacceptable to many coastal Republicans. That being said, its Peters that now has the uphill battle.
The lesson from Cantor is pretty simple: don’t give up your district for your leadership ambitions – particularly when you district is bright red and full of Republicans who by nature are more anti-central authority than our Dem counterparts. Cantor’s positioning himself on the Hill left him vulnerable in his district. A brutal miscalculation, borne of sheer arrogance, that cost him dearly.
Brian, tisk tisk. You should know turnout is different than registration in elections. Checking the voter turnout, Republicans accounted for 45% of all ballots cast on election day in the 52nd. Independents were only 17%. Democrats were 38%.
What that means is DeMaio won a majority of Republicans and probably a majority of independents *who cast ballots*.
Author
“You should know turnout is different than registration in elections.”
I should. You’re correct; I had a math problem– I had no idea Reep turnout was that high.
Does that debunk my theory that DeMaio should pay attention to the concerns conservatives have about him or lose the general? I think the November turn out will be heavier Dem than the June was.
Although I an not a D52 voter (but close by), Carl needs to do more to differentiate himself from Peters. They are both social liberals; Carl only seems to focus on pension issues, which are not particularly relevant in DC. His “economic issues” message is cut from the standard GOP playbook.
So, beyond little partisan tidbits, how are these candidates that different?
I invite and welcome all comment. I wish to learn from, and not criticize, campaign management.