Is President Trump in Trouble for 2020?

Brian Brady Brian Brady 4 Comments

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Rachel Bitecofer, a newish political strategist who called the 2018 Democratic wave has released her 2020 model and it doesn’t look good for the President and his party:

Bitecofer has already released her 2020 model, and is alone among election forecasters in giving the Democrats—who, of course, do not yet have a nominee—the 270 electoral votes required to claim the presidency without a single toss-up state flipping their way. She sees anyone in the top tier, or even the second tier of candidates, as strong enough to win back most of the Trump states in the industrial Midwest, stealing a march in the South in places like North Carolina and Florida, and even competing in traditional red states like Georgia, Texas and Arizona. The Democrats are likely to pick up seats again in the House, she says, pegging the total at nine pickups in Texas alone, and have a decent chance of taking back the Senate.

Bitecofer argues that the “shifting minds of independent voters” is an old way of thinking.  She posits that a focus on WHOM votes is really what matters.

But the electorate that elected Donald Trump in 2016 and the electorate that gave Democrats control of the House in 2018 might as well have been from two different countries, Bitecofer says. The first was whiter, had less college education and lived in more rural parts of the country than the second, which was more diverse, better educated and more urban than its counterpart from two years prior. That change had nothing to do with Democrats luring swing voters with savvy messaging, and everything to do with a bunch of people, who were appalled by the president, showing up at the polls, wanting to make their feelings known.

Once you know the shape of the electorate, she argues, you can pretty much tell how that electorate is going to vote. And the shape of the electorate in 2018, and 2020, for that matter, was determined on the night of November 8, 2016. The new electorate, as she forecasts it, is made up mostly of people who want a president named anything but Donald Trump, competing with another group that fears ruin should anyone but Donald Trump be president.

The first group, the Democratic universe of voters, now includes some very strange bedfellows, everyone from former Bush speechwriter David Frum to Susan Sarandon. It includes Al Sharpton and also the chief strategists for both Mitt Romney and John McCain’s failed presidential bids. It is Americans who are college-educated, who are not white or who live in or near a major urban center. This group turned out in force in the 2018 midterms, much the same way Tea Party voters showed up in 2010 to express their unhappiness at Obama. The more candidates talked about Trump and what a threat he was to their way of life, the more partisans were activated.

In other words, negative campaigning works.  The question Republicans need to ask is will the “Trump wave” eclipse the coming “anti-Trump wave”,  The Iowa caucus suggests that enthusiam for the Democratic candidates is equal to or less than the enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton in 2016 but the general elections is where the turnout matters.  Like 2016, a whole bunch of voters may tell their friends one thing and secretly vote for Anyone But The President in November.

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Comments 4

  1. @Brian Brady.
    He is right to be concerned. While all the Republicans are focused over here, Democrats are working diligently (and quietly) over there to match the electoral vote to the populist vote in time for Nov 2020.
    Their plan is to pass The National Popular Vote Bill in states representing at least 270 electoral votes. Once that happens, our nation turns completely blue. No turning back from that without a revolution.
    Status:
    This bill is now law in 24 states representing 195 votes. They need 75 more electoral votes. It has passed in at least one legislative chamber in 8 states possessing 75 electoral votes (AR, AZ, ME, MI, MN, NC, NV, OK).
    It has also been unanimously approved at the committee level in 2 states possessing 27 more electoral votes (GA, MO).
    For more detailed information go to: https://www.nationalpopularvote.com/state-status

  2. Lee,

    Are you saying that the majority of Americans will always support and vote for the Democratic Presidential Candidate?

  3. @Hypocrisy questioned.

    You asked if I was saying that most Americans will always vote Democrat.

    No, I am not saying that most Americans will ALWAYS vote Democrat. But we need to take a look at the big picture developing in this country for many year culminating in this November election. Let’s face it, Democrats want to get their power back, so do the Republicans in the House.

    Millennials and others seem to be energized into voting for the way of life promised by the Democrat presidential candidates. Do that many people think that Socialism in America is a good thing?

    Over the last 4-5 years, I have asked hundreds of high school students – either individually or in small groups, to name our form of gov’t. All but 3 said Democracy or I don’t know. The 3 students who answered Republic were home schooled. This is a big problem in America, but easily fixable – see article below (see link). If you like those ideas, you can run with them.

    If you don’t like the public school agenda, vote in March for conservatives to replace the School Board members comprised of progressive globalists or who kowtow to that agenda. We need fresh blood. If we are unable to replace the incumbent members on our school boards, then we are truly stuck with Common Core and its agenda of deliberate dumbing down our students in the public education system. Sad.

    The left is quite united and eager to establish their majority in Congress and in this country while the right has been splintered into 23,000+ groups across this country keeping them unable to accomplish real tangible actions like reversing this systematic destruction of our republic.

    https://cdjnews.com/2018/06/18/the-problems-with-the-current-california-education-system-and-how-to-solve-them/#.XkRkLmTsbL8

  4. Update to Brian Brady’s posting:
    Is President Trump in Trouble for 2020?
    If any one of the FOUR 2020 Threats to the Electoral College is successful, (Democrats are working very very hard on all of these fronts) it means an end to the effectiveness of the Electoral College. America becomes a true Democracy (a form of gov’t our founding fathers despised).
    The progressives/globalists/Marxists/Socialists, etc in all parties will win and congratulate themselves in Nov after the Democrats retake the Presidency, House, Senate,
    quote….”It’s not who votes, it’s who counts the votes that matters…Stalin”
    Republicans will scratch their heads wondering how this could have happened without them knowing.
    LINK – 3rd threat:
    https://www.nationalpopularvote.com/state-status
    LINK – 4th threat:
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-electoral/u-s-supreme-court-takes-up-presidential-electoral-college-dispute-idUSKBN1ZG2EH

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