“Inside the Numbers” — Revealing look at Mayoral candidates’ campaign $$$ … 10 weeks from Primary Day

Here is an even-handed look at  Mayoral campaign finances from our  Guest Author, “Math Geek”. It studies official reports published late last week, and I hope you’ll enjoy the facts.   Jim  Sills

By  Math  Geek … If you are like me you spend the better part of a day digging through the candidates campaign disclosures. Oh the anticipation, the impatience !, surprises ?!?!, the shock :O, .….it was like being a kid at Christmas. These reports  matter because every politico has a dozen theories on what the outcome of each race will be… but unless you are actually running one of the campaigns the theories are based on little more than rumors, gossip, and wishful thinking.

The times when the campaigns have to disclose the finances provide the legion of us arm-chair quarterbacks a few facts on which we can test out our theories. These few nuggets of facts will allow us – the chattering class – something to chew on and create new theories, rumors, gossip and wishful thinking.  Let the chattering begin!

To add to the chattering I  thought I would drive a little deeper into disclosures then the  typical “Who raised the most?”, “Who has the most Cash on Hand?”  “How much is so-and-so getting?” I was doing this anyway so why not share with the Rosta community and enhance the quality of the theories/rumors/gossip.

*Disclaimer: My math was based my love of round numbers, not using a calculator and having to guess at some of the vague items. Also, many expenses to a consultant or consultant firm are large and irregular, like $21,347.02, that doesn’t mean that they are overcharging the client but rather that they likely had a host of sub-vendors that they took care of under the expense. It’s tough to figure out what went to who when all we have to work with are acronymns like  “FND” or “PRO”.

*numbers in the thousands

==========================================================================================

Carl  DeMaio

Beginning Cash    $814

Loan    $60

Raised 1/1-  3/17    $226

Raised but can’t spend General 2012 contributions:     $36

Spent    $172

 Debt    $127

Real Cash on Hand,  $765

Expenses

Direct Voter Contact    $65.9

Consultants   $55.2

Fundraiser      $83

Accounting/Lawyer   $6.2

Poll $11

Direct Voter Contact is catch all for expenses for junior staff, precinct walkers, literature, phones, postage etc.

============================================================================================

Bonnie Dumanis

Beginning Cash    $275

Loan    $10

Raised  1/1- 3/17    $118

Raised but can’t spend General 2012 contributions    $33.5

Spent $88

Debt $30

Real Cash on Hand $251

Expenses 

Direct Voter Contact    $5.6

Consultants    $58.1

Fundraiser     $26 

Accounting/Lawyer    $8

Poll    $14.5

=============================================================================================

Bob  Filner

Beginning Cash    $41

Raised  1/1 – 3/17    $107…(including contribution from Dem Party $37.4)

Raised but can’t spend General 2012 contribution   $14

Spent  1/1 – 3/17      $110

Debt      $61

Real Cash on Hand:    -37

Expenses

Direct Voter Contact    $41.6

Consultants    $2.5

Fundraiser    $8.9

Accounting/Lawyer    $7.5

Poll    $ 18.3

=============================================================================================

Nathan Fletcher

Beginning Cash    $553

Raised   1/1 – 3/17    $219

Raised but can’t spend General 2012 contributions   $14k

Spent   1/1 – 3/17    $114

Debt    $57

Real Cash on Hand $587

Expenses

Direct Voter Contact    $9.3

Consultants    $30.4

Fundraiser    $21.4

Accounting/Lawyer    $25.7

Poll    $35

=================================================================================

……. CLOSING  THOUGHT

Hopefully, this was insightful and you have developed  five new theories to gossip about at the water cooler tomorrow.