Media outlets are reporting that the San Diego County Registrar of Voters is predicting a 35% voter turnout for today. Though these numbers are atrocious, they aren’t unprecedented: the June 2008 mayoral election in the City of San Diego experienced a 37.21% voter turnout. To underscore just how few San Diegans will make it to the polls today, compare 35% to the 83.06% voter turnout in the City of San Diego for the fall presidential election.
When voter turnout is low, the voting electorate is typically older, more conservative, and more suburban, so we can expect similar results this Election Day. The above GIS map, which displays combined mail voters & polling booth voters from June 2008, shows the wide range of turnout in voter precincts. The darker the color, the higher the turnout rate.
There are some clear trends. Huge turnouts in the older neighborhoods that are largely home to Caucasians, senior-citizens, and retirees: Del Cerro, San Carlos, Point Loma, South University City, east Rancho Bernardo and the Mount Soledad area of La Jolla. Conversely, the large minority-majority neighborhoods (San Ysidro, Mira Mesa, Southeast San Diego) lagged significantly in turnout.
It will be interesting to see how high-propensity voters in the City of San Diego cast their votes for Propositions B and D. There is some evidence of what we should expect tonight. I recently posted on Twitter the results of a 2006 SurveyUSA robopoll which shows strong support (61%) for supervisor term limits, particularly among Caucasians (72%). The controversial city charter amendments of Propositions A, B & C, passed by wide margins in June 2008, were particularly popular in the high-propensity neighborhoods. However, a souring economy, eroding city services, and strong anti-incumbent sentiment nationwide are also expected to play a factor, which has some Yes on D proponents cautiously awaiting tonight’s results.