A Rumor of War?

Mr. MurphyMr. Murphy 6 Comments

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According to three sources over the last couple of days, two of them at least mildly reliable, there was a poll in the field in San Diego City Council Districts 2, 6, and 7 last week. When I first heard the district numbers I thought that the person I was speaking to meant District 8, but I was corrected. All three persons were very clear — District 7, currently held by “Troubleshooter” Marti Emerald, who is not up for election, was polled, not District 8.

Let me once again admit – the information I have here is third hand, from two reasonably reliable sources and one unreliable but gossipy source. The three are not in what I would think would be an insular gossip circle. I write this to make clear that the numbers I’m about to cite were given in casual conversation, in one case after the source had over-indulged.

The numbers? Here is what I could peel off.

* Emerald is up side down favorable v. unfavorable with a majority (not a plurality) unfavorable. Her GOP and Independent numbers are abysmal;

* A strong plurality would not vote to re-elect Emerald;

* A plurality would vote to recall Emerald, with almost as many again undecided, and a smaller number opposed to recall;

What does this mean? I’m sure I don’t know other than Emerald is clearly unpopular within her own district and if she should slip much more than she has already done, could be recalled. If anyone has the actual numbers, post them, since the numbers I heard varied a bit.

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Comments 6

  1. Yes and no.

    – Emerald had a unfavorable plurality, not majority

    – A plurality would recall, then a smaller plurality not, then a nearly the same plurality undecided

    – Her base is liberal Democrats, moderates don’t care for her, conservatives actively dislike

    – Voters are aware of her ethics issues

    – November type turnout

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