The U-T San Diego reports on the SurveyUSA poll showing District Attorney Bonnie Dumanis handily leading her challengers, but below the 50 percent lock-it-up-now threshold…
http://utsandiego.com/news/2014/may/25/poll-da-dumanis-has-big-lead/
So, wonks…
1) It’s an auto-response survey, often less than reliable. SurveyUSA sometimes misses the mark on measuring those polled against quality projections of voter turnout.
2) If undecideds break like the rest of those reported by this poll, Dumanis could win it outright.
3) Is there any significant changed campaign outreach from Bob Brewer or Dumanis in the last several days? Independent expenditures?
Given those factors and questions, what do you think will happen?
Discuss.
Comments 11
It is very difficult to unseat an incumbent, especially in lower profile races. Neither Brewer nor Wyatt have the name recognition to get it done. Dumanis will win outright in the primary.
Brewer is a pompous piece of stuff. don’t think so, then just watch him and listen to his vocalization – he’s a defense attorney who is full of himself, period. We don’t need him to protect us from criminals in San Diego County.
Dumanis was always going to win this one. When she is ultimately removed from office, it will likely be in handcuffs.
Barry may have been hoping for some worthy discussion. Anyone besides HQ want to opine on the chances of Dumanis winning next week, regardless of what you may think of her or Brewer?
“If undecideds break like the rest of those reported by this poll, Dumanis could win it outright.”
As Brewer’s communications director, I’d like to point out that if history is any guide, undecideds break en masse to challengers in situations like this. Dumanis is the one with all the name ID. Voters have had 12 years to reach a conclusion about her. If you’re still “undecided” about whether you want her to remain as DA, odds are you’re going to vote for someone other than her.
This election’s heading to November. Dumanis won’t get the 50+% necessary to end it in June. Which gives Brewer five more months to let voters know who he is. We like our chances.
Alex,
I will give you this: if the contest does continue into November, I like Brewer’s chances. I still, however, think it highly unlikely that we will be voting for D.A. in November.
Carrie:
No, we didn’t “moderate you off” for forgetting what name you used in the past. You used Carrie. But, your comment was disapproved because you made unsubstantiated allegations of illegality and racism. You can state an opinion here, but you can’t simply accuse someone without proof.
Carrie on.
“Carrie on.”
It’s the little things which keep me coming back
My feeling is that Dumanis will not win outright in the primary.
Dumanis and Brewer will probably get each forty some % of the votes in June. But there is still a chance that Bob Brewer will win outright. Twelve years is enough for the incumbent. Those who are undecided will go for a change of leadership at the District Attorney’s Office. The latest profiles of the candidates in the media clearly showed that Bob Brewer is the best choice for the county top prosecutor’s office.
Dumanis has the greatest advantage over Brewer among older voters and women. Those voters are dominating the early voting as of June 1st counts with over 183,000 San Diego County ballots cast.
In addition, Dumanis TV commercials continue to air while Brewer ads seemed to have disappeared from TV.
This election is expected to be a low turnout election where older voters dominate the voting. Dumanis has a clear advantage over Brewer with voters who will actually show up. Brewer has been successfully defined as a criminal defense attorney with no name recognition by the Dumanis campaign. That hurts him in a race where he seeks to be top crime-fighter.
Brewer has done a great job of fundraising but has not capitalized by stating a coherent case with the voters why Dumanis should be fired or why he should be voted in.
Brewer’s campaign never owned any issues in the campaign. Originally, they sought to characterize the DA’s Office as suffering from a morale problem. However, Dumanis secured endorsements from DA Assn and DA Investigators Assn. Next, Brewer attempted to dirty Dumanis with the campaign finance scandal. Dumanis was vindicated by the wrongdoers in that case. Lastly, Brewer’s camp raised a series of manufactured scandals with Ethics Commission and FPPC. Dumanis was exonerated quickly and those allegations backfired on the Brewer camp. Brewer is left with his only issue–accusing Dumanis of being too political because she ran for Mayor. Dumanis responds by pointing out that Brewer backed her financially when she ran for Mayor and she did so to prevent Bob Filner from being Mayor. Those responses resonate with voters who recognize that all political candidates seeking political office are “political”–dismissing the very argument Brewer is trying to make. In fact, the allegations against Dumanis by Brewer make Brewer appear to political, contradicting a central tenet of his whole campaign
This race will be over on June 3rd when Dumanis secures a 4th term as DA. Expect Dumanis to secure 56% in the primary.