10News Self-Proclaimed Scientific Poll Results in Mayor’s Race

Thor's Assistant Rostra Administrator (Thor's Assistant) 10 Comments

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Channel 10 proclaims its poll as science, without noting the methodology, and turns to a “political scientist” as an expert.

It’s all very scientific. Yet, the results are still interesting…

Councilman Carl DeMaio 22%

District Attorney Bonnie Dumanis 15%

Rep. Bob Filner 14%

State Senator Christine Kehoe 12%

State Assemblyman Nathan Fletcher  7%

Here ya go…

http://www.10news.com/news/28176616/detail.html

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Comments 10

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  2. A little late to the game with this poll unless you’re trying to point out that Filner would likely jump to the lead with Kehoe out.

  3. SD Rostra had the Kehoe-Won’t-Run story FOUR freaking DAYS ago, including that Kehoe was calling backers to tell them her decision. …. http://sdrostra.com/?p=17391

    We’re shocked, shocked the U-T story does not credit SD Rostra or our colleagues across the aisle, at SD Politico, who also had it.

    Shocked I tell you !

    😉

  4. Post
    Author

    A poll is a poll. Newsworthy to some, to some not. But, always fodder making. Would your preference be that we ignore it?

  5. Post
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    Jim, great work…we just tweeted with the link:

    From San Diego Rostra: Just a reminder of this from 3 days ago: Kehoe is calling supporters to say she won’t run for Mayor

  6. Are there any other political scientists in San Diego to quote on this election other than Carl Luna?

    C’mon reporters — at least point out that Luna is a political opponent of DeMaio, whom he describes as as “demonic.”

  7. Brad, I think you could (and perhaps SHOULD) run that little comment EVERY time Luna is quoted. He’s an unpaid political operative (like me) — well, at least Luna is not DIRECTLY paid for his opinions.

    Sadly, Luna is viewed as an objective pundit, while I’m not. The press gets it half right.

  8. Actually the KGTV survey was a decent poll — at least the demographics are available for further analysis. It was NOT a phone-in poll or Internet poll.

    http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=51ba4319-2bf1-41c5-99aa-3171a4f23e0c

    Yes, they used primarily “registered voters,” and it did not seem to consider the likelihood of voting.

    But what is interesting to me is that I’m pretty sure that pro-DeMaio registered voters are more likely to actually vote than registered voters who state a preference for the other candidates. DeMaio supporters are generally more informed — and more motivated than all but the public employees (admittedly conjecture, but one based on my astonishingly credible insight). Hence if anything, the group polled is likely UNDERstating the vote DeMaio currently could expect to get at that point in time (early June).

    This is further borne out by the poll’s demographics. While DeMaio gets 22% of the poll, he gets 28% of the age 65+ voters, 27% of the 50-64 voters, 22% of the 35-49 voters and only 8% of the flaky 18-34 voters. And we all know who goes to the polls — especially in primaries.

  9. Let us recall the last time KGTV used Survey USA to conduct polling. Survey USA projected that the outcome of Proposition D, the half-cent sales tax measure on the City of San Diego ballot in November 2010, was “too close to call.” Meantime, John Nienstedt of Competitive Edge Research & Communications predicted the final tally within a percentage point. The vote was 38 percent in favor, 62 percent against, a crushing defeat.

    Perhaps Survey USA has learned a thing or two since then, but I’m not putting a lot of weight in these numbers. No more than the regular Albondigas Meatball Polls, which are unabashedly as far from rigorous scientific measurement as you can get.

  10. The principal problem for Survey USA is that they don’t, as far as I can tell, weight for likely voter. Note that this makes less and less of a difference as turnout goes up. But Prop D was a low turn out election so it isn’t surprising that they butchered it.

    It is also almost a year before the election. Things are going to change. I think that all you can do from this poll is conclude just 2 things: – A) that no dem is likely to win outright and B) that Fletcher still has some slope to climb to get his name ID higher. Chelse’s Law just isn’t enough as people’s memory fades and it seems like insider baseball. Just ask Governor Runner and AG Runner.

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