Comments 25

  1. No surprise as we know that attack ads work and Fletcher is the only one who has been attacked so far. I don’t expect that to be the case for long.

  2. Assuming those numbers hold up, doesn’t Fletcher beat Faulconer in the runoff by keeping his own supporters and grabbing the Alvarez and Aguirre supporters? What’s Faulconer’s path to victory?

  3. Looks like 52% D, 41% R to me, 7 % up for others

    Unless the trend in the next 3 weeks goes heavily to the R side

    Looks like Faulconer and Fletcher in the finals
    Fletcher wins, low information voters and early voters win again

  4. John,

    I disagree. I do not expect all of Alvarez’s supporters to vote for Fletcher in the run-off. I believe many will be discouraged and simply not vote. This will probably be one case where the turnout for the primary is greater than the turnout for the general election.

    I also find interesting how far and fast Faulconer has run away from the Republican brand in this election. Looking at his mailers and commercials, I can’t find one instance where he touts tax cuts, mentions his battles with public employee unions or even notes that he is a Republican (Alvarez and Fletcher tout the fact that they are Democrats every chance they get).

    Even on a member-to-member communication, Faulconer brags about working well with Donna Fry to protect the environment.

    Has the Republican name fell into such disrepute that Faulconer feels he needs to hide the fact that he is a Republican if he is to have any chance of becoming Mayor?

  5. Conventional wisdom would lead one to believe that Faulconer has the same problem as Donna Frye in 2005: enough support via a unified party vote to clearly take first in the primary, but not enough to get over the 50% threshold in a runoff. Yet the poll’s hypothetical run-off contradicts this wisdom with a 5% margin for Faulconer. This is probably the most exciting and important part of this poll. However, observations:

    (1) Faulconer hasn’t really been attacked yet – he eventually will be, although Fletcher (or third party surrogates) may choose to go negative on Alvarez first to assure making the run-off.
    (2) 46+41=87 w/13% undecided. While undecided voters will fall mostly along the same lines as decided voters in the primary, considering the nature of the primary field (unified R, disparate D’s), they will disproportionately fall for Fletcher in the run-off – albeit not in as great a number as he would like. This will be among the few deciding factors.
    (3) Faulconer’s 42% current and 46% runoff poll numbers almost exactly mirror Donna Frye’s in 2005.
    (4) The party doesn’t exactly have the turnout operation in the city now that it did for Sanders in 2005. This may be another critical factor at the end.

  6. HC

    If you disagree with my math, what is your math and prediction?
    We can have a friendly bet on the outcome.

  7. John,

    I don’t put much credence in the accuracy of this poll, so it would be foolish to place a wager based on the numbers. All I was saying is that you cannot assume all of Alvarez’s and Aguirre’s support automatically goes to Fletcher in a run-off. Many of Alvarez’s supporters will be discouraged and simply stay home while Aguirre’s supporters are mostly disgruntled, but not all Democrats.

    I am still amazed that no one wants to discuss the fact that Faulconer is doing all he can to avoid being labeled a Republican.

  8. Hypocrisy,
    Political campaigning 101:
    Faulconer is endorsed by the Republican Party. The Republican Party will get the members of the Republican Party to vote for him. It’s…kinda the point of a political party.

    Alvarez is endorsed by his party too, but is losing heavily to another member of his party. So both Alvarez and Fletcher have to fight for votes from their own party since neither of them are the true representative of their party. One way to do that is to hype just how Democrat you are.

    Fortunately, with the republican endorsement, Faulconer and his team have plenty of time to go talk to groups who are not Republicans about how good he’ll be for San Diego as mayor. Why would you tout your Republican credentials to groups that aren’t Republicans? You wouldn’t. You’d talk about issues that relate to them. Which he is doing.

    Maybe you are right and he should talk about his stance on unions? Getting rid of PLAs proved to be popular with city voters. But I don’t know. I’m not leading in the polls so I will leave it to Kevin and his team to decide.

  9. Post
    Author

  10. From the story we are talking about here:
    “According to those polled, 41 percent said Kevin Faulconer, followed by 28 percent, who said Nathan Fletcher. 17 percent said David Alvarez…”

  11. “I am still amazed that no one wants to discuss the fact that Faulconer is doing all he can to avoid being labeled a Republican.”

    I don’t think he’s avoiding it but is rather addressing the elephant in the room– voters are sick of partisan politics at City Hall.

    The Democratic Party of San Diego County endorsed a convicted sexual predator, with alleged prior knowledge of his misdeeds for City Hall. Said City Hall predator shook down businesses, intervened in bi-partisan solutions, and refused to implement popular, voter-passed reforms.

    It’s working too. Mayor Jerry Sanders was a very popular Republican mayor and is endorsing Kevin . Carl DeMaio was a very popular Councilman who has endorsed Kevin. Both Sanders and DeMaio are independent-minded Republicans who were at odds with each other at times and sometimes with the local GOP…and yet…

    All came together to work to reform the City and Kevin was sometimes the engine who kept the coalition moving forward.

    David Alvarez is pursuing a similar strategy. While he (like Kevin) communicates his party endorsement with the HPV party members, his message is about his record to produce bi-partisan solutions to issues he thinks are important.

    Only one candidate is playing the partisan game by positioning himself as the “neither political party loves or trusts me” guy.

    At the end of the day, two candidates are saying “Okay, I”m a ____ but I’m an effective city-wide leader first, Here are my ideas”. The voters are responding positively to them.

  12. Post
    Author

    Yes, we know that poll showed Alvarez losing heavily. We were simply pointing out there’s a new poll.

  13. “I am still amazed that no one wants to discuss the fact that Faulconer is doing all he can to avoid being labeled a Republican.”

    “I don’t think he’s avoiding it but is rather addressing the elephant in the room– voters are sick of partisan politics at City Hall.”

    And I’m old enough to remember the days when you didn’t know if the Mayor was a D or an R.

  14. “And I’m old enough to remember the days when you didn’t know if the Mayor was a D or an R”

    …and didn’t care because, on local issues, public sector unions and business groups didn’t have the power and influence they have today. As you might expect, I lay the blame on the growth of government.

    There was a time when cops and firefighter unions endorsed with public safety in mind, Realtors endorsed with property rights in mind, and the Chamber of Commerce thought sports teams and “new” businesses should succeed if their customers were willing to pay rather than the taxpayers.

  15. HC,

    I don’t mean a bet where you have to drop me a check in the mail.
    I am talking about a bet that combines one’s logic, analysis and gut feel.

    There are plenty of opinionated people in here, let’s get some folks on the record with their pick in the race.

    I pick Faulconer and Fletcher in the runoff with Fletcher winning

    What say you?

  16. John,

    Actually I agree with your analysis, but only because I do not trust the Survey USA poll numbers? I will make you this bet: Fletcher’s total in the runoff will be at least 5 points less than the total that he, Alvarez and Aguirre get in the primary.

  18. Sigh,

    Only relevant if you trust the poll numbers. I believe this is the poll that had DeMaio 10 points in front of Filner.

  19. Hypocrisy, One of the other obvious reasons I think Faulconer is not simply stating he is a Republican is because that wouldn’t tell people much about him. Saying you are a Democrat…we know where you stand, but Republicans, we’re the party where you get choices.

    -Republicans are pro-life, pro-choice, and a couple of stances in-between. Democrats are only pro-choice.
    -Republicans have an array of views on guns from few limits to many. Democrats are only anti-gun.
    -Republicans have differing views on taxes (flat tax, no tax, fair tax, consumption tax, more taxes, etc). Democrats want to raise taxes.
    -Republicans don’t all support same sex marriage, some do, some do personally but not politically, some do politically but not personally. Democrats have to support all forms of same sex marriage personally and politically.
    -Republicans have neocons, non-interventionists, isolationists, hawks, doves, chickenhawks. Democrats always vote for more war, but only criticize war when a Republican is in the White House.
    -Republicans support environmentalism, don’t support it, conserve, don’t conserve, recycle, don’t recycle, eat meat, are vegetarians or vegans. Democrats have to be environmentalist extremists.
    -Republicans are anti-union, support union workers, will listen to unions, only like private unions, only like public unions, like PLAs, sometimes like PLAs. Democrats have to do whatever unions say so matter what.

    The Republican Party is where the debates are. It’s where people have a voice and an impact. They’re not just followers. So I am sure Kevin Faulconer wants people to know where he stands specifically and what he has done specifically because just saying he is a “Republican” isn’t enough of his story to tell people what he’s about.

  21. Lets get one thing straight. Republican/Democrat is a national party affiliation. As Sanders states. There is nothing partisan about fixing pot holes. An individual such as Falconer who may buck tea party views on private sector unions, demonstrates strength of character and executive independence, that you won’t find in a green yes man like Alvarez or a man who is all ambition and wavering principles such as Fletcher. Falconer has shown that the era of sensible solutions is here and that partisan politics have to be put aside for the greater good.

  22. Well said Michael. Kevin is a young man I have observed for many campaign events at the Federal level. My political avocation is observation. My 27 years as a Probation Officer was a Godsend. Offering my professional talents pro bono has given me a no strings attached approach.

    Now retired but still holding my Ca PI Lic, I am still loving the bloodsport of Politics. There is not a lot of solid talent comming up the ranks, but Kevin is one of the majors. He is the guy I would pin my political career on. Kevin will be a good ride for staffers and and San Diego.

    Looking forward to seeing Peters and Kevin seated at the Mount Soledad Memorial on 11/9. Would also love to see Duke Cunningham in or about town on 11/9. How about the missing wing fly by. Must love a top gunner. GOP or DNC the Cross still stands…………

  25. Post
    Author

    Reminder to select a name/handle if choosing anonymity and then stick with it. There is no such name as “name change pending.” Commenters who post under different pseudonyms each time will be listed as “Anonymous,” then blocked if they continue trying to be cute. To the last commenter, you appear to have used five different handles over several months. Pick one. Thanks.

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