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Labor polling shows Alvarez in statistical dead heat with Fletcher for run off spot

Monday, November 4, 2013
posted by Thor's Assistant

A recent Garin-Hart-Yang survey, shown below, shows David Alvarez slightly ahead of Nathan Fletcher for the second spot in the San Diego mayor’s contest.

Garin-Hart-Yang is a very reputable and likely expensive Democratic firm, also doing polling work for NBC, CBS, Wall Street Journal, and USA Today, among others.

If there is any question whether the Labor Council wants to win this thing and is willing to engage if polling shows Alvarez can make the run off, this might answer it.

For the pundits automatically assuming a Kevin Faulconer vs. Fletcher run off, take note, there’s a couple of weeks of Donnybrooking left.

(click for larger view)

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11 Responses to “Labor polling shows Alvarez in statistical dead heat with Fletcher for run off spot”

  1. Steve Kane says:

    The 21% of Latino voters for Faulconer is a little bit of a surprise considering that there are two Spanish surnamed candidates in the race. Maybe Fletcher’s lesson is that when you try to be everything to everyone, you can end up being something to no one. Even if Fletcher survives to face Faulconer, a lot of Dems will not enthusiastically rush to vote for him in the runoff.

  2. D. Morton says:

    Or it’s a push poll that the Alvarez folks put out in response to the 10News poll showing him running well behind where he needs to be for the run-off, which would explain why a statistical outlier that doesn’t include questions or cross-tabs happened to pop up the the same day…just sayin’, its happened before.

  3. Barry Jantz Barry Jantz says:

    Yes, always consider the source. That means also including the efficacy or lack thereof on SurveyUSA polling methodology. Polling is fodder, but it’s fun fodder.

  4. Mat Kostrinsky says:

    The memo you are reading was for a poll that was done for internal purposes. Not a push or rush job. Also, the 21% Latino vote includes Aguirre with his 8%.

  5. chris jordan says:

    Garin polling shows. Alvarez may overtake Fletcher for second place. If there is a runoff between Faulconer and Alvarez a lot of Fletcher votes will drop into Faulconer’s lap once they realize Fletcher was just an opportunistic turncoat. Faulconer has the ability to work with all sides to achieve the greater good while Alvarez is too green too inexperienced and too beholden to bring integrity back too the mayor’s chair.

  6. La Playa Heritage says:

    Our Councilman Kevin Faulconer has always supported coastal neighborhoods.

  7. Reality Check says:

    There really isn’t an “Alvarez Surge”. It’s manufactured out of whole cloth by the Faulconer People and fueled by the administrators of this website and the commentators of its amen corner.

    Even if there was such a thing as significant growth for Young David, it would only be because he has flown under the radar and avoided media scrutiny.

    Democratic donors and the vast majority of Dem elected are with Nathan.

    Why wouldn’t they be? Nathan is offering genuine merchandise while Young David offers fakery resulting from his brief tenure as an elected official. He’s simply in over his his head and not quite ready yet.

    Democratic voters see that difference and are coming home to Fletcher.

  8. Thor's Assistant Thor's Assistant says:

    Reality Check:

    Reminder to select a name/handle if choosing anonymity and then stick with it. You appear to have used two different handles in the last couple of months. Pick one. Thanks.

    Aside from that, we’re very glad to see you believe the Faulconer People and admins of this website are doing the polling for the Labor Council.

    That’s truly hilarity at its finest.

  9. Brian Brady Brian Brady says:

    “There really isn’t an “Alvarez Surge”. It’s manufactured out of whole cloth by the Faulconer People and fueled by the administrators of this website and the commentators of its amen corner:

    Awesome. I can’t wait until we target one of the Balkan Republics next. This is better than some of my tin-foil hat theories

  10. Mat Kostrinsky says:

    I would think this post from SDPolitico really brings up the issue where the voters are and not:
    http://www.sandiegopolitico.com/2013/11/polls-polls-and-more-polls.html?m=1

  11. Thor's Assistant Thor's Assistant says:

    good info. thanks Mat.

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