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The Winners! – The Great Rostra/FlashReport San Diego Primary Election Contest

Friday, June 22, 2012
posted by Barry Jantz

The results have been tallied for our little Election Contest (see the questions here), with about 45 participants.  I’m pleased to say it was the most competitive contest yet.  Maybe the questions were too easy. I’ll remember that next time.  But, we do have some winners.

First, some stats — since the type of ner … uhhh, I mean wonks who enter the contest are into stats.

Out of the 10 base questions, no one got less than five correct answers, with 63 percent of the participants getting between five and seven right. About another one-third nailed eight or nine correctly, pretty amazing.

More specifically:

San Diego City Council District 5 — Thankfully, this “gimme” question that the seat would be won by lone contender Mark Kersey was answered correctly by everyone, including Kersey.  He did add an “ahem” after his answer to this one.

San Diego City Council District 1 — One third of you guessed this race would not be over in the primary, correctly believing that Ray Ellis would force a run-off against Sherri Lightner.

San Diego City Council District 7 — A whopping 80 percent correctly picked Scott Sherman as the top finisher over Mat Kostrinsky.  In retrospect, it would have been interesting to ask if this race would be over in the primary.

San Diego Mayor — Although both names had to be chosen correctly, sixty-seven percent did indeed call the top two vote getters as Carl DeMaio and Bob Filner.  There was not much of a move to the middle on this question, apparently.

Congress, District 52 — More than 75 percent accurately predicted Scott Peters would beat out Lori Saldana for the number two spot, with some even guessing top-finisher Brian Bilbray would be runner-up.  Maybe they didn’t read the question correctly, not my problem.

State Assembly, District 76 — A bit tougher, since the names of the top two were required, but one-third of you got both Rocky Chavez and Sherry Hodges.

State Assembly, District 79 — This was a difficult one as well, having to pick the top finisher among the Democrats.  Again, thirty-three percent correctly called it for Shirley Weber.

Some High Marks — A full 83 percent or so were right that Prop B in the City of San Diego would do better than Prop A, another 83 percent said correctly that Marty Block would finish tops in the 39th State Senate race, and — wait for it — 95 percent of you picked number one finisher Juan Vargas in Congressional District 51.

Tie-Breaker 1 — This was only if needed, of course, and it was needed, but a pretty amazing 43 percent nailed the exact order of finish in the District 3 County Supervisor’s race, with Steve Danon being followed by Dave Roberts and Carl Hilliard behind that.

Tie-Breaker 2 — The second “run-off” question was to guess the difference in percentage between DeMaio and Nathan Fletcher, regardless of their order of finish. The spread between the two is now at 7.34 percent (and is unlikely to change with only a handful of votes to count).  Wowzza — 27 percent of the entrants guessed seven or eight points, with 55 percent picking between five and nine points.  I didn’t know that many folks had access to John Nienstedt‘s polling numbers.

WINNERS…

Those getting eight of the 10 questions right and thus deserving of  honorable mention are (in no particular order) Jon Cross, Tom Mitchell, Michael Hadland, Tab Berg, Doug Sain, Vince Vasquez, Paul Webster, Chris Crotty, and Scott Lewis.  Of those, Mitchell, Hadland, Berg, Vasquez, Crotty and Lewis all picked the first tie-breaker correctly! Among those, Tab Berg was the closest on tie-breaker two, guessing seven percent on the DeMaio-Fletcher spread.  Tom Mitchell guessed a very respectable 6.5 percent.

Nine out of 10 questions correct — FIVE of you, Michael McSweeney, Chris Cate, Jordan Marks, Debra O’Toole, and Brad Barnum are 90 percenters.  But only one got the order right in the Danon-Roberts-Hilliard battle, so scores a “show” in this contest on a tie-breaker — Jordan Marks!

All ten questions right — I didn’t think I’d ever see this, but both Christine Moore and Matt Awbrey locked down 10 for 10 correctly.  Then sealing her victory by also accurately picking the first tie-breaker was Moore.

I should note that Awbrey did guess seven percent on tie-breaker two, the percentage between DeMaio and Fletcher.  If you count the tie-breakers as part of the overall, then, Moore got 11 of 12 questions dead on, with Awbrey 10 of 12 and the 11th as close as anyone’s guess in the whole contest.  You’d do well to invite these two to the track.

By the way, the only way it is ever known how a participant guesses on specific questions is for them to get ‘em all right, so there you go. They’ll have to live with it.

Once again, the winners:

First Place (and an Albondigas lunch on me) — Christine Moore

Second Place — Matt Awbrey

Third Place — Jordan Marks

Congratulations all!  See you next time.

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9 Responses to “The Winners! – The Great Rostra/FlashReport San Diego Primary Election Contest”

  1. Matt Awbrey says:

    Congratulations, Christine and Jordan. I think making my predictions in the middle of an election day GOTV precinct walk helped attune my political senses. Unfortunately for me, my luck is better on Rostra than at the races.

  2. Brian Brady Brian Brady says:

    Congratulations to Christine, Matt and Jordan. The results suggest that the pros know their stuff!

  3. Christine Moore says:

    In the spirit of cooperation, and by that OF COURSE I mean public sector/private sector, I will reach across the aisle and offer to share half my meatball with Matt. Jordan, you can get the first crack at the chips & salsa, but no “double dipping”. And, no, that is not a pension joke…

  4. What Is This? says:

    Congrats Christine. Only one meatball in a bowl of Albondigas is a rip-off, but it’s nice of you to share it with Matt.

    Many thanks to all who supported Scott Sherman for the D-7 City Council seat. The final unofficial tally shows 50.17% of the votes, with a 52 vote cushion. Per the ROV, results are to be certified on July 3rd.

  5. Jordan marks says:

    Sweet, half a meatball. Congrats to my fellow master political predictors Christine & Matt. Always great to be in good company.

  6. This bunch proves that Rostra readers are the smartest folks in town who know their political shizz. It’s honor by association and I am all about it.

  7. Ms. Right says:

    What is a group named after a soup anyway? Albondigas?

  8. Barry Jantz Barry Jantz says:

    Ms. Right,
    Several years ago, the now late political consultant Jack Orr and a few North County politicos would get together regularly for lunch at a place that served albondigas, with nothing on the agenda but fellowship and political talk. Thus was born Albondigas, which now has loosely-defined “chapters” in North, East and South counties, as well as San Diego. More here…
    http://www.sdcitybeat.com/sandiego/article-8956-gab-and-grub.html

    Shoot me an email at barryjantz1@cox.net to be added to the list.

  9. michael mcsweeney says:

    I just got off the phone with Mat Kostrinsky and he suggested I should inquire as to what a re-count would cost.
    Thanks Barry for making this a fun, spirited contest.

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