Growing Mail Ballot Lead — GOP now +3,286 in SD vote-by-Mail totals — Latest 24K ballots break 43% Republican vs. 38% Democratic
The SD Registrar has processed another 24,561 mail ballots since SD Rostra’s last report, and registered Republicans (43.2%) outnumber Democrats (38.5%) within that cohort. The overall GOP lead is up from +2,154 on Monday to + 3,286 on Thursday. And the GOP share of all mail ballots (42%) is now 7 points higher than its registration share (35%). Votes-by-Mail are expected to be 60% or more of June primary ballots, so this trend is significant.
……CAN THIS REALLY AFFECT KEY RACES ?
A 3% to 7% “gain” in partisan voter share is enough to make the difference in close races. GOP Candidates for the state legislature, U.S. Congress, City Council, County Supervisor and city council will all feel its effects. CREDIT is owed to all Republican volunteer clubs (especially the Republican Women Federated), Republican candidates, the Tea Party activists, and Tony Krvaric and Barrett Tetlow at the Republican Party of SD.
Meanwhile, ‘Independents,’ aka Decline to States, make up 24% of total voter registration, but are only 16% of the ballots returned by mail to date.
…..SAN DIEGO’S STELLAR REGISTRAR OFFICE
A Hat Tip also to SD Registrar of Voters Deborah Seiler and all hard-working ROV employees for handling this complex data in Real Time and sharing results with the Public. Your Correpondent assures you that Registrar of Voters’ offices in some OTHER counties are (a) unable or (b) unwilling to equal this quality effort.
That’s your Briefing for Today, fellow Number Crunchers. Please stay tuned to SD Rostra for further mind-numbing developments.