San Diego GOP takes 2,154-ballot Lead in County Vote-by-Mail returns as of May 21 — A significant Repeat of the 2010 Trend
Among the first 89,223 Mail Ballots returned to the SD Registrar of Voters, registered Republicans (36,986) have taken a 2,154 ballot lead over Democrats (34,832), replicating a trend SD Rostra first noted in 2010. The GOP zooms from 35.2 % of registration, to 41.3 % of ballots received as of May 21st. This may assauge the whining concerns some critics directed at GOP Chairman Tony Krvaric. So far it appears his mail, phone, and door-to-door campaigns for the San Diego GOP are working just fine! This “tide” should aid Steve Danon, George Plescia, Mary England, Scott Sherman, Ray Ellis, Carl DeMaio, and other GOP-endorsed candidates, as it did Lorie Zapf, Bill Horn and Ron Roberts in 2010.
….WHY MAIL BALLOTS ARE SO IMPORTANT
Based on the 2008 and 2010 San Diego primary outcomes, your Correspondent estimates over 60% of all votes counted in June 2012 will be cast by Mail, and less than 40% at the precinct polls. Most candidates who win in the Mail vote, will also win the election.
These figures are from the SD Registrar of Voters office, which continues to be (A) at the cutting edge of election technology and (B) transparent in making public information readily available to the Public. Kudos to Registrar Deborah Seiler and her able staff.
…..THE FULL ‘SCORE BOARD’ BY PARTY REGISTRATION
(1) Republican, 36,986… (2) Democratic, 34,832… (3) Independent/DTS, 13,451… (4) AIP, American Independent, 3,071…(5) Libertarian, 524….(6) Green, 276… (7) Peace & Freedom, 90
……WHY DOES THE INDEPENDENT VOTE DECLINE?
Independents/Decline to State are 24% of all registrationS, but only 15% of ballots received so far. What’s up with that? ANSWER: this continues a Decades-long pattern of lower voter turnout rates for Independent/Nonpartisan registered voters. Turnout is nearly always higher among members of the 2 major parties, than among their competitors. The only exception came in the Glory Days (1990s) of the Ross Perot-inspired Reform Party.
…..OUR STATISTICAL CONSULTANT
I have checked these analyses personally with the SD Rostra Victory Bear and he has given his Thumbs Up. But he asks Erica Holloway to return his recent Text Messages.
JIm: Thanks for digging up good info.
Good work. The results among DTS voters is precisely why Team Fletcher is a bit worried – the latest being the phone calls to Bonnie encouraging her to drop out.
Ryan and Erik:
You are welcome. Glad you found the data useful and interesting.
Two big Congressional races with Dem-on-Dem action might make some Dems hold on to their ballots a little longer. Nonetheless, primaries with nothing at the top of the ticket are always going to skew right, especially with early voters. Always have, always will. Is anyone still expecting a surge of DTS voters because of a few commercials with a purple tree house? Well, I’ve got some beachfront property in Jamul to sell ya.
Too bad Krvaric-Nehring have allowed Republican registration and volunteer efforts to drop…otherwise we would be much farther ahead