Sources: Recent Labor Poll finds Filner in 4th place among likely SD June voters
Reliable sources tell SD Rostra that labor forces got more / less than they expected in an early-January poll of 750 likely San Diego City June voters. The surprising results for Mayor, including “leaners,” are said to be: Carl DeMaio 26%, Nathan Fletcher 17%, Bonnie Dumanis 16%, and Bob Filner 14%. Some prior mayoral surveys, public and private, did not rigorously screen for high-propensity voters. With a June 2012 turnout of 35% to 40% projected by local number-crunchers, a focus on proven high-propensity voters may be crucial.
Our sources say related Favorable / Unfavorable ratings put Filner at 39% favorable to 31% Unfavorable. That 39% favorable lags behind DeMaio (42%) and Dumanis (46%). Fletcher’s approval is said to be at 36%, but with only 11% unfavorable, an enviable 3-1 ratio.
…..BOB FILNER’S POSITION
If accurate, these results paint a serious, but not irreparable problem for Bob Filner. With his own resources, and possible help from “Independent Expenditures” by liberal groups, he has ample time to improve his standing by May and June.
Past history demonstrates that Filner is often at his best when faced with a serious challenge (see Filner v. Mike Aguirre 1987, Filner v. Wadie Deddeh 1992, and Filner v. Juan Vargas 2006).
Still, these are not the numbers local activists would have expected. The commonly heard assumption that Filner has a nearly – automatic ”bye” into the second round runoff may now need to be reexamined.
As they say at a popular game of chance, “Please Hold ALL Bingo Cards.” AND REMEMBER: You saw this story first at SD Rostra, where we are Live, Local and Late Breaking!
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Jim Sills is a San Diego Republican political consultant. If you have questions about your future in San Diego and California elections, you can contact Jim at this email address: YourElectionVictory@hotmail.com He has aided campaigns for Rep. Darrell Issa, Assemblywoman Shirley Horton, Senators Joel Anderson and Tony Strickland, Representatives Devin Nunes and J.D. Hayworth, County Assessor & Recorder Greg Smith, among many others in California and beyond.
“Reliable sources tell SD Rostra”. It would be nice to have a name for those “reliable sources”. It would also help SD Rostra’s credibility. Just a thought.
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Good sources have always been a staple of reporting. As a citizen-journalist
himself, Mr. Flannery must be aware of that fact. ….Jim Sills
David Rolland, editor of CITY BEAT, has now written about this survey and relates that his sources tell him effectively the same story we heard. SD Rostra thanks Mr. Rolland for crediting our original effort.
Rostrafarians can read Mr. Rolland’s well-reasoned account here:
http://www.sdcitybeat.com/sandiego/blog-727-source-poll-has-demaio-in-the-lead-other-three-major-candidates-bunched-up.html
I wonder if this poll was done by the same firm the Labor Council used last time for the Prop D sales tax that showed that measure passing….
If the poll were actually released, instead of being just rumor mill, maybe we’d find out.
But then again, maybe that’s the whole point of releasing a “rumor.”
Jim,
Thanks for the post.
Two takeaways: Despite having, by far, the least name recognition, Fletcher has gotten himself into the race and despite being the only Democrat in the race, Filner better stop thinking he has a bye to the run-off.
We’ve had a couple of calls saying that NBC 7 San Diego would be doing a story on the polling tonight and that their numbers are different, that Filner is actually in third in the polling (implying that Mr. Sills’ numbers are wrong).
First, please note that the headline leads off with the word “Sources” followed by a colon. Next, see the blog post starts out with “Reliable sources tell…”
Those clear clarifying statements speak for themselves…that Jim is reporting what quality sources are telling him.
Next, per Dave Rolland’s follow up in SD CityBeat (as linked in the comment three above this by Jim), the “leaners” broken out show this (Rolland’s words in italics):
Carl DeMaio: 22 percent, plus 4 percent leaning his way.
Nathan Fletcher: 15 percent, plus 2 percent leaning.
Bonnie Dumanis: 12 percent, plus 4 percent leaning.
Bob Filner: 13 percent, plus 2 percent leaning (making his total 15 percent rather than the 14 percent Sills reported).
So, if one doesn’t count the leaners, Filner would be at 13, one ahead of Dumanis’ 12, putting him in third place in this poll.
But, AGAIN, as Sills clearly notes in his original post, his source was including the leaners, which places Filner in fourth behind Dumanis by two points.
It’s all how you slice and dice the numbers and what gets included. But, really, folks, whether Bonnie or Bob is in third or fourth by one or two points is not largely relevant to anything, quite frankly.
What is relevant is very obvious to most of us that have followed prior polling numbers in the race. Now, if NBC has completely different numbers than these, then we will have a different conversation. But we commend Jim for the sources he has and his breaking news post.
Filner is “at his best” when the labor unions start their multi-million dollar smear campaign (primarily against DeMaio). Filner doesn’t even need to bother raising money from individual contributors, and he knows it.
Yeah, he raises some — but it will be dwarfed by the labor unions’ IE spending. DWARFED!
Am I to believe Nathan Fletcher’s campaign sent out a press release referencing a blog post from a blogger who heard about a “poll” from “sources” close to labor unions? With no top lines, not to mention crosstabs?
So to translate, Nathan Fletcher’s campaign heard from somebody who heard from somebody else that a poll was conducted by still somebody else. And in this alleged poll Nathan Fletcher is still not even close to leading. In fact, in this alleged poll Nathan Fletcher is within the margin of error of being in 2nd, 3rd, or last.
If a campaign ever discusses a poll publicly it should be 1) your poll and 2) the entire poll including the cross tabs should be released. Everything else lacks credibility.
If there was such a thing as campaign malpractice, this would be it.
It’s one thing for someone to blog about something he heard around town. That’s what makes Rostra fun. It’s another for a campaign to take it to the bank and send out a press release about what basically amounts to rumors.
And when these rumors have you within the margin of error of being in dead last and you’re bragging about it, your campaign has problems.
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The Poll’s basic results were independently verified by CITY BEAT editor David Rolland,
whose Democratic sources gave him the same facts Rostra had learned.
There is Good News* for all 3 Republican candidates in this survey… How each of
those candidates interprets the News is the standard stuff of daily Politics.
* THE GOOD NEWS…. Councilman DeMaio is the clear Front Runner…DA Dumanis
has a 46% personal approval score… Assemblyman Fletcher has a 3-1 approve /
disapprove ratio. …..Jim Sills
Who writes the comments in bold and why are they attached to other people’s comments?
Good question, Bastinda. Perhaps the “…..Jim Sills” at the end of each such “bold” comment here might offer some hint as to identity of the anonymous commenter.
Oddly enough, Jim Sills is the author of this blog entry. I see a pattern emerging . . . .
To be fair, Jim added his name for clarity after the question was posed. Occasionally, authors and sometimes admin will add a bolded comment for clarity’s purpose … or because they feel like it. We will ensure such comments are authored so it doesn’t appear that aliens are hi-jacking the site.