Why Would Filner Resign?, Polling, Labor Dynamics

North Pole North Pole 9 Comments

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It’s been a couple weeks since my last post so I thought I’d play some catch up.

#1 I don’t believe Bob Filner will resign unless he has to negotiate away his office to avoid prison time for the other financial scandals that are roiling him. So what that all the Democratic officials in town are calling for him to step down. Filner must know what we all know: they didn’t want him to run in the first place, never liked him, and see this as an opportunity to replace him with someone they like (or some are afraid they’ll lose the seat to a Republican).

#2 There are at least three real polls floating around taken in the last couple weeks. By real I mean not Survey USA. As part of my day job I’ve seen two. Here is what I can or will say: I’m not sure who should carry the Democrat banner. Nathan Fletcher starts ok but shrivels up after message testing. Toni Atkins, Todd Gloria and Christine Kehoe cannibalize each other if they run at once or even a couple run at once. Lori Saldana and Lorena Gonzalez are kind of wild cards that were only tossed in one poll. I’m going to toss a shocker in there: Marti Emerald. Lotta people know who she is.

#3 Dynamics in the Labor Council seem interesting. They are arguing over whether or not to stand with Filner. So far the ‘ayes’ have it. They are also in a bit of a struggle between Richard Barrera — who is getting kudos generally for being politically diligent even though I don’t see it in the Filner thing — and his predecessor Gonzalez (now in the Assembly) over endorsements IF Filner is recalled or resigns. I hear she was out front for Fletcher a couple weeks ago, basically saying it was a done deal. But as late as two days ago (2nd hand) it didn’t sound like that from Barrera at all. There is bound to be some tension between the two of course. But it’s worth noting.

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Comments 9

  1. Good points “North Pole” but you missed the most sinister Dem of them all: Todd “Bring your Checkbook” Gloria.

    Right now Todd is busy demonstrating his command of the 10th Floor business-union-political Influence Exchange known as the City Council. That is where business, unions and politics meet the road. It is where the lobbyists hang out because that is where the money is.

    What do you suppose Todd told Myrtle and Marti yesterday to get them to toe the Party line? He bluntly reminded them where their campaign dollars came from. He pointed to the main door of the 10th Floor lobbying complex and reminded them that every penny of it comes through that door, one way or another.

    He reminded them that he, the Council President, Mr. “Bring your Checkbook”, holds the key to the honey-pot that is the 10th Floor. He no doubt very pointedly reminded them who allocates committee seats, where their individual power comes from. Why, the Council President of course.

    What is at issue here is vast fortunes in municipal bond money and the allocation of the accumulated unspent $1billion tax increment money from the now defunct redevelopment agency. You are right, nobody on the 10th Floor wanted an outsider, a Bob Filner, to come in and upset all their pre-done deals. It must have been a nightmare for all of them, so they had to act. Sexual harassment is the assassin’s bullet of politics.

    The 10th Floor has thus painfully learned that it must never again allow the Mayor’s Office to go to anybody outside the City Council golden circle. Sanders was an institutional guy all his life and knew instinctively how the game is played.

    So where does this logic point to for your next Mayor? Why Todd Gloria of course.

    Perhaps that was why our Founding Fathers wisely rejected a parliamentary form of government in favor of separation of powers. We were almost there in San Diego with our Strong Mayor Charter Amendment, which now looks in serious trouble.

    Before you Repubs pile on top of Filner think hard about what will happen to the Strong Mayor form of government if he falls. You may be condemning yourselves to decades of a Strong Council form of government, which you all know, because of District elections, will remain dominated by Unions and Democrats.

    So be careful, or you may throw the baby out with the bathwater.

  2. “Before you Repubs pile on top of Filner think hard about what will happen to the Strong Mayor form of government if he falls.”

    This is a good point. I recall a conversation among Republicans, about how we are “lamenting the strong mayor choice”. If you’re a small government conservative, a bickering Mayor and Council, which gets little to nothing done, isn’t the worst thing in the world.

    Many folks get all upset when President Obama is globetrotting and getting “nothing done at home”—“m not one of those people. I actually LIKE when Obama is abroad because little if any damage is done to our constitution

  3. After Todd Gloria got his Paul Mitchell custom designed 3rd District Council Seat, Council President position and SANDAG Transportation Committee Chairmanship he in effect became the Downtown Councilman/Mayor, unofficial Strong Mayor. That opened doors to lots of cash. The Downtown crony capitalists will just have to figure out who would be the best investment. If they cross him he is still there. Perhaps the tony Sorrento Valley/UCSD Techies will throw lots of cash to Nathan Fletcher and just buy themselves a mayor. But in a low turnout special election even a Republican could win.

  4. Brian and Mole,

    What I am saying to you Repubs (and I am neither Dem nor Repub) is be careful what you wish for.

    Remember that a “Recall” election would be “first past the post” and there would be all kinds of looneys from both left and right with their multi-colored hats in the ring. It would be a circus. Could the Repub professionals control it? I doubt it.

    The most likely winner would undoubtedly be Gloria who is currently the only ringmaster with a long enough whip.

  5. Todd Gloria can’t raise money. The Dem’s main candidate (the FUNDED candidate) will be picked by the labor unions. Probably Fletcher or Kehoe — NOT Gloria. If there are two major Dems in the race, the Republican candidate wins easily (off year election).

  6. While I hope for a Republican to replace Filner, the business as usual where downtown deals are cut between unions, developers and politicians isn’t helping our city. Principled small local government conservatives haven’t shown the ability to win San Diego elections yet. Right now, unions are the biggest threat to the solvency of the city, so I would prefer any Republican to Filner. However, a Republican who really put taxpayer interests first would be nice.

  7. There is something missing from this conversation that makes the rest of it a moot point. What mook are we going to parade up there to run against this ever-shifting, dynamic field of Dems? The last I checked (and I have admittedly been traveling a lot recently), DeMaio is still running for Congress – and to downgrade congressional candidates so Carl can run for mayor would be to risk losing the investment that the NRCC is willing to make in that district.

    So…Faulconer, who tests poorly against Gloria and Fletcher? Maybe we dust off April Boling? I hear Phil Thallheimer and Steve Francis are both still bored and wealthy.

    Snark aside, we can’t beat somebody with nobody, and further talk of the well-positioned faceless Republican is pointless until we have names.

    And Flannery: even assuming your conspiracy theories are all true, Filner still could have kept his hands (among other appendages) to himself.

  8. Here is a radical thought. Take a popular nationally recognized republican politician, For example, John McCain. or Mike Huckabee, Then select one of their kids, to run for mayor. who meets the following criteria. Solid military or business background, physically attractive, charismatic, and most importantly, has been to San Diego at least once.

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