Crazy to think we’re already approaching Week 7 in the NFL! Normally at this point in the season, there are a few teams that begin to separate themselves from the rest of the pack. This year seems to be an exception so far – the teams who are all 4-1 or 5-1 (Steelers, Colts, Bucs) do not seem to be heavily believed in by those who cover the league. I think this is very intriguing, because it shows how much shake-up can happen after each week of games!
We had a better picks performance last week, but still not where we want to be. I am officially declaring this a Back-on-Track Week for the program!
MY PICKS (60-33)
Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1) @ Cincinnati Bengals (2-4)
- The Battle of the 40+ Year Old Quarterbacks. An AFC North divisional matchup can bring almost any outcome to a game. It was just announced that star pass rusher Trey Hendrickson will not play against the Steelers, which creates even more holes in the awful Bengals defense. With the Steelers defense being 2nd in the NFL in sacks so far, I think they get to Joe Flacco multiple times and win decisively.
Los Angeles Rams (4-2) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-2)
- This week’s London game is actually pretty competitive! Maybe the schedule makers knew the dud that the Broncos and Jets would put on display in Week 6 and wanted to redeem themselves for the London fans. Puka Nacua is trending towards not playing for the Rams, and I weirdly like the “home-field” advantage that the Jags have in London, since they seem to play there every year.
New Orleans Saints (1-5) @ Chicago Bears (3-2)
- The Bears are fresh off a Monday night win on the road, getting to face a struggling Saints team at home. The run game finally started to look decent for the Bears’ offense, and I see it continuing here. Bears win a close one.
Las Vegas Raiders (2-4) @ Kansas City Chiefs (3-3)
- I mean, what’s there to say about this one? The Chiefs might be back to form, Rashee Rice is back from suspension, and Patrick Mahomes is the favorite to win the MVP currently. Chiefs by a few touchdowns.
Miami Dolphins (1-5) @ Cleveland Browns (1-5)
- Here’s one of our weekly gross matchups. It feels like you could go either way with this one, but the vibes in Miami seem wayyyyy worse than in Cleveland. I think the Browns’ defense plays well and forces several turnovers in a win at home.
New England Patriots (4-2) @ Tennessee Titans (1-5)
- Tennessee just fired HC Brian Callahan midseason, and the first game they play after that will be against their other former coach Mike Vrabel. The Patriots are a spicy young team and becoming more and more fun to watch. I think Vrabel sends a message and the Patriots win by 10+.
Carolina Panthers (3-3) @ New York Jets (0-6)
- The Carolina Panthers are 3-3?! I’m not sure I expected this coming into the season. They look to get their first road win of the season, while the Jets look to get their first win of the entire season. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Jets pull it out, but I will go Panthers here.
Philadelphia Eagles (4-2) @ Minnesota Vikings (3-2)
- I feel like the spread is too close in this one (Eagles -2.5). Yes, the Eagles have lost two straight games, but I think they use this game against Carson Wentz as a “get right” game and take care of business. If they lose somehow, the conversations surrounding the locker room will be VERY interesting.
Indianapolis Colts (5-1) @ Los Angeles Chargers (4-2)
- Another matchup that was not expected to be this intriguing before the season. The Chargers have had plenty of offensive line struggles due to injuries, but I believe they will be getting Joe Alt back at tackle. I believe the Colts are a good team, but they struggled a bit last week with Arizona, and I think they fall to the Chargers in a “Justin Herbert Heroics” type game.
New York Giants (2-4) @ Denver Broncos (4-2)
- Does Jaxson Dart know what he’s getting into with this Broncos’ defense? I’m not sure he does. He’s played well in his first few starts, but Denver’s defense is on another level. They are on pace for 85 sacks this season, which would SHATTER the previous season record of 72. I think Denver wins at home.
Green Bay Packers (3-1-1) @ Arizona Cardinals (2-4)
- Hear me out: the Packers are the most frustrating team in the NFL. They are superbly talented, but they seem to play down to their opponents in most games they play. I’ll take them in this game based purely on their skill level, but we’ll see if they show up.
Washington Commanders (3-3) @ Dallas Cowboys (2-3-1)
- Another head-scratching divisional matchup of the week. The Cowboys have an amazing offense, and a horrible defense, while the Commanders seem to be all over the place depending on the week. Overall, I think Washington has a more solid team, so I will pick them here.
Atlanta Falcons (3-2) @ San Francisco 49ers (4-2)
- I’ll admit, I switched my pick on this game a few times. I’m honestly confused why the Niners are favored, especially with the amount of injuries they have all over the roster. Atlanta looked very impressive on Monday night against Buffalo, so let’s see if they can keep the momentum going into Sunday.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-1) @ Detroit Lions (4-2)
- These are definitely two top teams in the NFC, with electric offenses and injuries plaguing both rosters. Baker Mayfield is playing out of his mind, and is firmly in the MVP consideration up to this point. He’s one of my favorite players to watch in football, but I have to take the Lions here. They’re far too talented to lose back-to-back games in primetime.
Houston Texans (2-3) @ Seattle Seahawks (4-2)
- What a defensive battle this will be. Weirdly, Seattle has been struggling at home as of late, but they welcome a Texans team that can’t quite seem to figure out the offensive side of the ball. I think Seattle gets to 5-2, and takes first place in the NFC West.
BETS (10-8 Overall)
DK Metcalf Anytime TD (+145)
Jaxson Dart to throw Interception (-128)
Colts/Chargers Over 48.5 Points (-110)
FANTASY
Last Week’s Pick: Hunter Henry (4.20 points – not great).
Washington Commanders RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt aka Bill will be a great start this weekend. The Cowboys’ run defense is atrocious, and I think Bill corrects some fumbling mistakes from last week.
Let’s have a great week!
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See all of Jake Cloke’s entries.