According to the FEC website, four area Republicans have filed political committees as possible candidates in the 53rd Congressional District, to determine which one will have the right to lose to Congresswoman Susan Davis in November (see the chart below).
Please tell me if in that statement I’m being too dismissive of anyone’s chances to unseat Davis.
The field includes educator Joel Marchese, Grossmont Union High School District Trustee James Stieringer, physician Wayne True, and retired Navy SEAL Larry Wilske.
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Comments 36
It is a long shot, but to paraphrase the great Wayne Gretzky, “100% of the shots you don’t take, don’t go into the net.”
Joel is a great guy, but just not personable enough to make it in politics (perhaps I mean sociopathic enough?).
Larry is an ok candidate. Certainly better than Popaditch (whose service I respect and admire.)
We’re going to have to admit that we won’t take this seat until we run a Kevin Faulconer-like candidate, which means we have to get off the social issues.
Let the uproar commence.
It’s a long shot, but, in the event it was an open seat, I think the party has a shot at winning it,. With the way representatives from California retiring, we should always be prepared for any seat, but especially one like this were we can win.
themarshallplan check the registration for District 53
The Dems have a 60% to 40% advantage.
That will remain a D seat as long as Davis wants it and for any of the other D’s in the bullpen that are eyeing it.
Gerrymandering, low information voters and same day registration have sunk the Republic in one generation. The American Century is over.
The registration is close to 43 percent Dem, 29 percent Rep, and over 23 percent decline to state.
60 to 40 would be odd in any district in the nation, as that would mean no independents or minor party registration.
John,
“…low information voters and same day registration have sunk the Republic in one generation. The American Century is over.”
So it is easier to vote and more people are taking advantage of that opportunity. I don’t know what civics classes you took in school, but my understanding is those are things that make our country great, not things to bemoan.
As for gerrymandering, the majority of voters in 2012 cast their ballot for a Democratic Congressman yet the Republicans still have a majority in the House of Representatives. I would say that gerrymandering has been more beneficial to the Republican Party.
UB,
“.. which means we have to get off the social issues…”
No uproar..however, seeking some clarity though…what precisiely is meant by “get off” the issues?
Thanks.
“Please tell me if in that statement I’m being too dismissive of anyone’s chances to unseat Davis.”
You are. Susan Davis is unpopular with rank and file Dems because of her Obamacare votes– they want jobs.
“The registration is close to 43 percent Dem, 29 percent Rep, and over 23 percent decline to state.”
Isn’t this similar to the registration in the City of San Diego…the same City a Republican won Mayor by +7%?
Wilske has been campaigning in the very same districts Faulconer did. The man was smart enough to watch Kevin and learn what worked.
The “please tell me” statement was to elicit discussion.
The stats on registration wasn’t to prove that no Rep has a chance, it was to correct Mr. Stahl’s statement. A 20 point difference in registration would indeed be an impossibility. The actual 13.5 difference, while difficult, is not an impossibility.
Yet, the difference between that and the Faulconer victory is the sitting incumbent, as well as the fact that a challenger will not be targeted for victory by those with bank like Kevin was. The NRCC won’t touch this race.
We need a known name player to compete here, I fear. Any suggestions, anyone?
“We need a known name player to compete here,”
One of the four you mentioned is going to make the run off against Davis. I want to know who can raise money and a concrete plan to attack her on her turf. I’ve only seen one Republican candidate down in D4, speaking to the same people Faulconer did.
I’m through discounting people. If someone wants this seat, they can beat Davis with money and hard work. I want to know who has skin in the game and who intends to run full time against her
I loves me some DeMaio. I wish we had one of him to run in every district.
What I mean by “getting off” the social issues is a recognition of one’s views on the subject, which at the same time acknowledging the need to keep advocacy on those views in the private sector, rather than through legislation.
Let’s do the math
SD Registrar of Voters shows D 156698 R 101513 That is 60%/40%
All the others fall along those lines
Further proof:
Popaditch got 42% in the primary and 39.6% in the general
What part of safe seat do you not understand. That district is 60%/40%
Low information voters do not improve the results. They do not take the time to evaluate the candidates and the issues. Following the herd has gotten us nowhere. The one who spends the most money on TV ads wins.
None of the four R candidates (according to FEC reports for 12/31/13) have even raised or spent $5,000, their reports show zero.
85% of the seats in Congress are safe. I did learn in school and business and the political school of hard knocks, that this is a disaster for a country.
You are in denial if you think that the 53rd district is anything but a safe seat in the foreseeable future.
And to HC comment below
“So it is easier to vote and more people are taking advantage of that opportunity. I don’t know what civics classes you took in school, but my understanding is those are things that make our country great, not things to bemoan.”
Having 85% of your Congressional seats listed as safe or non-competitive is not what made America great. Competition, work ethic and an informed electorate is what made America great. Not a bunch of folks who are told who to vote for by the people who have flushed the American Dream down the George Crapper and burdened us with 17T going to 25T in debt.
Brian,
“ ‘The registration is close to 43 percent Dem, 29 percent Rep, and over 23 percent decline to state.’ Isn’t this similar to the registration in the City of San Diego…the same City a Republican won Mayor by +7%?”
True, but there is a big difference between a special election and a general election. In fact, each time Kevin Faulconer has won a new office, it has come in a special election.
All that said, I still hope Susan Davis has a serious opponent. Allowing our elected officials a free pass to re-election is not in anyone’s best interest.
The district is 60% Dem, 40% Rep when measuring 72% of the voters. Fact. Everything else is opinion.
John,
“Having 85% of your Congressional seats listed as safe or non-competitive is not what made America great.”
I didn’t say gerrymandering made America great. I did, however, say that it has disproportionately favored Republicans.
“…and an informed electorate is what made America great.”
When did we ever have an informed electorate?
Steve, John, Brian and to everyone posting on this thread about “who will be best equipped to unseat Susan Davis in CA-53. Please be aware of the following: I was the first Republican to hang his banner up for this race back in May of 2013. I’ve raised nearly $5,000 in private donations from individuals thus far, with more on the way. None of these contributions came from my own pocket. As such, with four new candidates entering the race within only the last four or five weeks, it is unlikely any can catch up to and surpass the grassroots support I’ve been able to mount during the past nine months of campaigning. Brian I am told is supporting Mr. Wilske, or at least touting his credentials as a retired Navy Master Chief. We’ve had retired military candidates four times already, running for CA-53. Don’t you think, Brian, that it is time for some new approach to winning this district? (edited out by Admin.) I want everyone to think a little out of the box here, and to think big! We need bold, fresh ideas to win back a seat like CA-53. I’m your guy!
Great advice from all of you. I have had a couple of campaign consultants advise me to skip all of the issues already decided by the courts, and concentrate on health care, perhaps also the economy, and immigration. I have had many patients devastated by the ACA, a few who have been helped. I believe we have the resources to make healthcare available for all citizens but few would have voted for the ACA if any of the details had been known. Fund-raising has been slow-going, and I am a novice. Any advice or assistance welcome! I currently have every Tuesday afternoon and evening free, most evenings after 6 PM, and weekends available. I do need my day job!
HC,
If you Google “Presidential debates TV audience” you will see a chart where the % of households watching Presidential debates went from 55% of households in 1960 to 25% in recent times.
Google “Voter turnout Presidential elections” you will see a chart that shows voter turnout above 80% in earlier years, now it is consistently below 50%
I think both trends show a more informed electorate in years past.
John,
Not much else to watch on television in 1960.
As for turnout, it was 57% in 2012 and 54% in 2000. Was the electorate that re-elected Obama more informed than the one that elected Bush? And what do you say about the 60+% turnout in Obama’s first election?
Dear Union Buster – You stated above: ” Joel is a great guy, but just not personable enough to make it in politics (perhaps I mean sociopathic enough?).” Have we even met? You do realize that as a 15 year seasoned educator, “personability” has been one of the reasons for my career longevity. Great teaching skill would be the other. I know full well how to hold an audience. My father worked as an entertainer-singer in Miami Beach, and often dragged me to his nightclub shows where I learned first hand how to interact with an audience and hold an audience. I will admit that it’s slightly different on the political stage, yet there are many similarities. In my opinion, there is a certain amount of theatrics and animation lacking in most of our local GOP candidates. Do you agree? I intend to bring little bit of that back to the political stage this year. You might want to tune in when I debate Susan Davis!
As a voter in CD 53, I’m very interested in seeing a GOP candidate with a proven record of winning elections run against Davis.
I don’t believe unfounded smearing at this point is either healthy or suiting anyone to give Susan Davis a run for her money. If anyone questions the value of my service or any Vet please look me up and we’ll meet to discuss face to face. As of today our Nation trusts 10% of Congress and we currently have the least amount of Vets in history. Intelligence, Courage, Experience and Leadership are what is lacking in Congress and I bring all of those to the table.
My fund raising is going well for the 7 weeks I’ve been at this and there is quite a bit of momentum of support growing around my team; more importantly my volunteer base just eclipsed 100 people with a goal of 500 to adequately conduct the ground game necessary. Our outreach program is doing exceptionally well and I invite anyone to call me for a personal update.
The good news is I am dedicated 7-days a week to this race and I will stay a full-time competitor with Susan Davis for the long haul.
Larry
Mr. Marchese:
Your first comment was edited to remove the rumor and innuendo about another candidate. Unsubstantiated claims and whispering campaigns are not allowed here. If readers have an allegation, they need to document it.
The campaign has barely started and we’re starting with, “I am told” charges against opposing candidates, of a serious and possibly libelous nature?
Wow. Just wow.
(GL)
Dear Thor’s Assistant;
Sorry to have been the one to break the news about Wilske. On the other hand I believe voters have a right to know the full record of all candidates in this race, and in all political contests. You asked for documentation. At this time, I can provide you with this link from a Special Ops Command website that mentions the incident I was refering to. I would recommend you take a look at it and consider the long term implications as the race wears on. Scroll towards the bottom of the comments thread of this link http://www.socnet.com/showthread.php?t=94290&page=3
With all due respect, you didn’t “break the news.” You wrote, “I have been told…” Now, you post a link to a comment board with some unknown commenter saying, “A few months ago I heard…” about one of your opponents.
You haven’t substantiated a thing, you’ve simply repeated the unsubstantiation. That’s called a whispering campaign. If you don’t know the difference between rumor and fact, we can’t help you. Try to understand what’s credible and what’s not. Unless something is documented, it is nothing but INNUENDO.
Do not claim this is some bias in favor of your opponent and against you. We take the same position in all cases here when it comes to allegations.
(GL)
Fair enough. I accept your distinction between fact and allegation, but will say that this is something worth closer scrutiny. And, that being said, it is better for conservatives to vet the facts regarding this matter than to wait for Susan Davis to get hold of it. If proven true, it could result in a loss for District 53 and hurt the Republican Party.
I respect anyone who runs for Congress so I’m going to try to be delicate in my answers to the candidates:
Dr. True: we need a full-time candidate to defeat Susan Davis. You have a great message so I hope you work hard to raise the money required to run against her. Start with your close friends and family. You should be able to raise at least $25K from them before you start asking for money from people who didn’t know you last year.
Mr. Marchese: I’m not so sure that dismissing veterans as candidates, in San Diego, is a wise idea unless you are a progressive Democrat. That sort of “out-of-the-box” thinking might play well in San Francisco or the Upper East Side. I’m convinced that running to the left of Susan Davis is a losing proposition as she is the darling of the former Filner voters in her District.
Master Chief Wilske: Continue to run against Susan Davis. To defeat her, you’re going to have to convert independents and Mike Aguirre Democrats (read today’s U-T editorial to understand that). You’ll find those Aguirre Democrats and independents in the San Diego neighborhoods of CD53 (those neighborhoods where you grew up and played as a kid). Don’t be afraid to ask these same people for money for your campaign.
I can’t stress enough (to all of you) how hard this race will be. While I’m positive that Davis is weak, the earlier comments (by HQ) are true. This is a different election than the Mayoral Special Election.
There are two types of candidates: victory and vanity. Vanity candidates hope to make it to the run off and try to win the RPSDC endorsement. Victory candidates craft and execute a winning business plan to defeat the Democrat and serve in the House. Best of luck to all of you
Mr. Brady. To paint me as being to the left of Susan Davis is more than just absurd it is a gross mischaracterization. Of all the candidates running you will find that I am the most conservative of the four. Your failure to investigate this gives you out away as a Wilske supporter but this we already knew. What’s happening here in these very commentaries illustrates the problem with Republicans in general. We spend too much energy beating up on each other instead of the opposition. And do you wonder why so many are switching to decline to state voter status. Our goal should be unified. We should work to win as many seats as possible…targeted or not.
The venerable Ronald Reagan, the Gold Standard for Conservative Republicans, once said “Thou shalt not speak ill of any fellow Republican.”
Joel Marchese, you have broken the Eleventh Commandment, and if you have any hope of winning this nomination, ought to consider walking back your accusations. It is vitally important that this be a campaign won on hard work and Conservative ideas ——————— not by smear tactics. Joel, absolutely nothing in your link suggests anything was done incorrectly. Furthermore, any hint that a Military Man is incapable at beating Susan Davis is akin to cutting your own nose off. You do realize that there are a heck of a lot of Veterans in the 53rd district don’t you?
I want to add a little context to this discussion. I am a 20 year Navy SEAL Vet, who happened to be one of Larry Wilske’s SEAL instructors when Larry went through BUD/s [SEAL Training]. Larry is a man of strong Character who possesses the absolute strongest leadership ability. The man is also a devoted Patriot who loves his country and put his life on the line to preserve the Freedom and Liberty that we all enjoy. Only one person on this entire thread was anywhere near this event when it occurred, and only two people on this thread ever served in the SEAL Teams and know how the community works. I would suggest that the snipping stop, and stop now.
The future of our Country, the Liberty and Freedom we have enjoyed are at stake. Rather then smear tactics, we need to put forth solid Liberty Republican ideas. How about we have a healthy campaign discussing these ideas and then rally behind who wins?
Lets talk about these ideas:
1. How do we preserve the Liberty we are losing each and every day?
2. How do we return our Great Republic to the roaring Global Financial Engine it once was?
3. How do we get ourselves out of the OBAMACARE mess?
4. How do we get our borders sealed and our immigration problem solved?
5. How do we get our runaway Foreign Policy back in check?
6. How do we get our kids educated properly to succeed in the future?
7. How do we return our Government to the size it should be?
8. How do we allow the Free Markets to run freely and create more jobs then we know what to do with?
9. How do we get out of this Federal Reserve money printing mess?
10. How do we beat Susan Davis in November? Hint: make her wear Obamacare like a neck tie! Let the people know who did not read the Obamacare Bill before she voted for it and how it is now costing so many their jobs, healthcare coverage and $3k – $5k more a year.
You see Joel, there are many many other things we Liberty Republicans should be discussing on here, instead of throwing up false flags and smearing a fellow Republicans.
Daniel Y. [U.S. Navy SEAL, Retired]
“We spend too much energy beating up on each other instead of the opposition.”
This from Joel Marchese after he attacks Larry Wilske with unfounded charges.
Marchese does seem totally suited for Congress.
Daniel;
I respect your “opinion” and thank you for your service. Yes, I do realize that there are many veterans and active duty servicemen and women living in CA-53. Many of them support Joel Marchese for Congress, and many agree with my statement that a new type of candidate is needed to run against Davis this time around. If you can prove me wrong about the courts martial of Juio Huertas, Petty Officer 2nd Class Jonathan Keefe and Petty Officer 2nd Class Matthew McCabe, then I would welcome your information and issue a withdrawal of my comments. It is because I do respect our military that these men who captured and arrested the mastermind of the Fallujah murders of 2004 not go unrecognized for their sacrifices, not to mention being falsely accused. Which is more important here – politics or the truth. I’d personally like to know if there is any truth to this.
“Many of them support Joel Marchese for Congress, and many agree with my statement that a new type of candidate is needed to run against Davis this time around.”
Name five. Better yet, ask those five veterans, living in CD53, to read the comments stream and endorse you here.
I think five is less than “many” but I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt.
I was willing to give all the candidates a wide berth until your whisper campaign started, Mr Marchese. Now, I will apply the same rigorous vetting you asked me to apply to your opponent
Hey, I was told that this schoolteacher running for Congress is a lousy educator. Wait til the incumbent hears about it. There may be two sides of the story, but I doubt it. The person who told me read it on a blog, from an anonymous parent.
As a voter in CD53, I’m open to any of the candidates at the moment. I don’t mean to imply anything about any candidate or give credence to any rumor, but if there are skeletons in any candidate’s closet, I’d just as soon find out about them before the primary election.
Meanwhile, by way of comparison, here are the numbers for the competitive race in CD52
The lone Dem:
Peters spent $268,029 and has $1,140,137 cash on hand.
The three Republicans:
Demaio spent $200,627 and has $985,992 cash on hand
Jorgenson spent $160,806 and has $2,769 cash on hand
Simon spent $71,455 and has $343,232 cash on hand.
You can find relevant financial reports from the FEC here:
http://www.fec.gov/disclosurehs/HSState.do